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    CT Journals

August 31, 2018

Chart Focus September 1, 2018

A Shift in Mood Forthcoming

8/31/18

Change of Trend (COT) dates from several independent studies are clustering in the current time frame. It is more than a random outcome. For one reason, the fractal method I use for diverse markets has a pivot – a COT-in the very near future.

Like volatility, these time windows point to a dynamic change in direction for the basket of commodities in this chart, “Bloom cmd map 2018.” When I look at the same fractals for Crude, Gold, and Silver, I see the same expected change.

The first two charts are overlays for the 18 1/2 year cycle.

History doe does not repeat itself exactly, but it does have a rhythm. According to the 18 1/2-year cycles, the timing of market events should be similar to the year 2000. Thus far in 2018, the dates are lining up with confidence. Looking at 2000, that model would suggest the next six weeks to be a sell-off of some proportion.

The 2018 chart labels the dates for the visual cross-check. What is a new price-based event os the crossover of the 50 and 200-day moving averages, nicked named the “death cross.” It provides trend followers with evidence of an estimate bear market.

Based on the current context when the sell-off does hit, there will be no fanfare beforehand. And when the indicators give clear sell signals to the big boys, the sell-off will be a high rate of change affair that exceeds the spill in February. As such it will be very profitable for long volatility strategies.

The number of long-term sell signals is mounting to go along with these COTs. True North on the majority of important sectors and all of the indices, is out of the market and suggests the engagement of long volatility strategies.

Rare TD sequential sell signals are hitting the major indices as well. The TDS long-term sell signal chart shows how the count succeeded in nailing the peak in 2017 and has given a 13 count sell signal in January, from which the market has not been able to recycle.

Volatility Report posted Monday for start of the week Tuesday, September 4.

 

August 6, 2018

Volatility Report August 6, 2018

The outlook has not changed on the stock market, just waiting for the other shoe to drop. While there is another COT date on the 8th, the expectation has been for a mini panic low in the first two weeks of August, no change.

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