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CT Journals
January 31, 2021
MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #5
The new shining object trying to get everyone’s attention is the “GameStop” short squeeze story and how it will impact the market. The 24-hour news cycle may play with it for a while, but I do not think the story has legs or any relevancy.
While Covid19 is certainly a concern for all of our well being, it is already known, and while it could get worse from a health point of view, it is not going to surprise the market. Volatility Reports will discuss the prime mover this week.
January 26, 2021
Volatility Reports 1/26/2021
Well, lots of talk about a raging optimistic sentiment behind the risk markets. In fact, highly leveraged risk is running at extremely high historical levels. Not to mention the babies “doing money” even while hanging with their dog.
But these “odd-lotter” signs of a speculative peak are being ignored because they have a lead time of ten months. “Say What!”
Worse yet, I saw “if there is a bubble, it really does not matter.” …what the!
January 25, 2021
MarketMap-2021 Issue#4
The media is full of sore losers regarding the election of three months ago and the failed insurrection two weeks ago.
I saw a gaggle of them on LinkedIn posting responses how the Biden Admin is moving toward Sovietism, followed by touting Biden will be good for Bitcoin and Crude Oil and Topix Index and Gold.
January 20, 2021
Volatility Reports 1/20/2021
If the January high pivot holds, it would set up an “event-based cycle” (EBC) with a particular two-year pattern. More on that in MarketMap-2021 Issue#4.
If today’s rally fails to hold, the cycle is pulling the market lower into January 29+/- 1 day.
The checklist for the bearish engagement of hedges and investments is not ideal yet, which leaves LT and I-T investors risk-off.
Part of that checklist is
January 14, 2021
Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21
The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.
Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.
January 13, 2021
Volatility Reports 1/13/2021
An unexpected long bar move is very possible in the current time window – January 13-20
The chance of a secular change is high. Risk assessment is a drawdown in global share markets of 36% in the first leg
Working from the long term down to the short term, they all reflect FOMO buying at an extreme. The Technical Event Model (TEM) reflects rule#1, an event that is a leading signal of a major change of trend. Over time it is normally seen at lows but has the same meaning at high pivots. The past year to 15 months across all the popular markets there is a widespread emotional buying that persisted for months, It has shown up in Gold, Bonds, and FANG stocks.
January 12, 2021
Volatility Reports 1/12/21
The leading indicators for the stock market are ticking off the checklist.
Back on 12/30, the Bitcoin market was labeled a Bell Weather. It should be clear to advisors, investors, and traders that BTC and others are not StableCoin, something that can be used for a more secure currency one that can not be counterfeited. But given the volatility of the market, it is a risk asset. As such, it is a bellwether for other risk markets, it is not a hedge as advertised.
The key price level