February 26, 2021
“The Best Reason To Be Bearish Is…There Is No Reason To Be Bearish”
Bracketing off the one-day Disney rally that took the Dow to a new high on the 24th ( I mean, who could sell short Mickey Mouse or Donald Duck?), the beginnings of a meaningful decline took the first bite out of the bull market. The change of dates from the 17th to the 24th does not make a difference in the outlook (more on that in MarketMap-2021 Issue#7.) The decline from the 17th into the low calendar time windows for a change of trend unfolded as Contrary Thinker outlined. Here is the thing.
February 22, 2021
- MarketMap-2018 Issue#1 predicted a constitutional crisis. Over the last five years, it has been like a slow-moving coup. It’s not over yet, given the far rights reaction via their media releases. It is not over yet with the second impeachment trial expected 2/9/21
February 21, 2021
Covid will be gone by April others say herd immunity by July. Either way, the news on the pandemic is good.
February 18, 2021
A “fragile” market suggests that any surprise big or small can set off a period of profit-taking.
As pointed out in a recent “VR,” our volatility model had turned mixed. That is important as our research is based on first principles, that form precedes real-world content, and that context precedes dynamics. Back a week or ten days the background was not reflecting complacency, so bearish expectations drop a notch, and when TEM primarily pointed to a low volatility persistent trend, that was not much help either for the bearish side.
That does not mean “risk-on,” the actuarial tables put this market on life support. Plus, just like the life of a loved one who is near the end, it is always a shock to the system when they pass no matter how much it was expected. At least in the back of one’s mind, it was just not today.
February 16, 2021
The markets are in a time window for change. While the long-term correlation between the bonds and stocks will become positive later this year, the short-term relationship will continue on its counterbalancing framework.
With our focus here on the long bonds, it appears they have completed another leg of the new secular bear market. In the first chart CT pegs the low hit last Friday as the end of short term wave one in the longer I-T wave (3). Hence based on EWT, this market is just weeks away from going into a full-fledge – everyone sees the bear – sell-off.
The chart window on the left shows the Tidal Trend system short from right after the panic buying peak. Today all three trend-following indicators on that chart are trending lower. Our stand-alone “panic” index (not shown ) on the weekly chart is at 64 with 65 or higher being a bell ringer.
February 13, 2021
So far, investors are unfazed by the growing number of the “somethings” that have not happened. You know the “known unknowns” that are lining up. Plus for good measure, I will include black swans events – the unknown unknowns.
So how will the market react if the republican party breaks apart? Could a lurch to the political left unwittingly pop the everything risk taker’s bubble?
February 11, 2021
“The Buzz” Market Affecting Events that No One Believes Can Happen
Reconstruction is not the Second American Civil War. Rather it is the abject failure leading to one.
After the American Civil War, the federal government started in 1865–1877 a process called Reconstruction, which aimed to restore the South to the Union and update the federal and state governance in accordance with the Thirteenth, Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution. Due to the severity of the social, political, and constitutional challenges and conflicts of the Reconstruction Era, Reconstruction is sometimes called the “Second Civil War”. The term was cemented by the American Experience episode “Reconstruction: The Second Civil War” and made its way to the school curriculum.
How Trumpism Is Becoming America’s New “Lost Cause”
The idea of a new Civil War has been coursing through the national conversation lately, as Americans try to make sense of the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, or the polls showing a majority of Republicans still don’t recognize Joe Biden’s election. Fox News segments have warned that Democrats want to force a “new version of Reconstruction” on an unsuspecting public.
Overblown? Maybe. But one of America’s preeminent historians of that era thinks there’s good reason for the comparison. “We really have arrived at, it appears, two irreconcilable Americas with their own information systems, their own facts, their own story, their own narrative,” says David Blight, the legendary Yale historian whose work studying the Civil War and Reconstruction Era won him a Pulitzer Prize.
The threat he sees isn’t that there will be another literal war: It’s the threat of two rival stories about America taking root, as they did after the Civil War. One of them, a heroic “Lost Cause” narrative of a noble Confederacy whose soldiers sacrificed themselves for honor and tradition, flourished for decades, justifying the fight for slavery and continuing to distort American politics to this day.
As Donald Trump’s more extremist followers cling to his bogus claims of a stolen election, wrapping Trump’s complaints into a nationalist counternarrative driven by racial anxiety and anger at the government, they risk creating a legacy that will divide the country long after the man himself leaves the stage. “In search of a story—in search of a history, in search of a leader, in search of anything they can attach to—lost causes tend to become these great mythologies whose great conspiracy theories tend to explain everything,” says Blight.
Witness, for instance, the bizarre staying power of QAnon—the baseless pro-Trump conspiracy theory that imagined Trump would remain in power after January 20 as he fought off a cabal of Satanic pedophiles who secretly control the government. January 20 came and went. Joe Biden was sworn in. And while some QAnon devotees found themselves humiliated and questioning their beliefs, others doubled down, moving the goal posts—it’s all part of the plan, just wait and see.
“At the heart of a lost cause, if it has staying power, is its capacity to turn itself into a victory story,” says Blight. “Can Trumpism ultimately convert itself into some kind of victory story? We don’t know that yet.”
Especially in the wake of the January 6 insurrection, cries for unity have been heard throughout Washington, as the need to come together feels more urgent than it has in years. Here, Blight sees a useful lesson to be found in history: “In all the work I’ve done on the Civil War and public memory, the central thing I’ve learned is that you can’t have healing without some balance with justice,” says Blight. “You have to have both. The justice has to be just as real as any kind of healing.”
How does America move forward? Who gets to decide how we, as a public, remember our shared history? POLITICO Magazine spoke with Blight this week. A condensed transcript of that conversation follows, edited for length and clarity.
It seems that many Americans have the Civil War era on their minds, especially since the insurrection and the first nonpeaceful transfer of power since the 1860s. You know that era better than almost anyone. Do 2020 and 2021 remind you of 1860 and 1861?
The threat of domestic terrorism remains high, says US Homeland Security, with Donald Trump supporters ’emboldened’ by Capitol attack
The threat of a violent attack in the United States is likely to remain high for a number of weeks, with extremists and angry Donald Trump supporters “emboldened” by the deadly US Capitol riots and seizing on COVID-19 misinformation.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a “terror advisory” on Wednesday (local time), warning the risk of violence and terrorism “will persist in the weeks following the successful presidential inauguration”.
It did not specify any particular threat.
“Information suggests that some ideologically-motivated violent extremists with objections to the exercise of governmental authority and the presidential transition, as well as other perceived grievances fuelled by false narratives, could continue to mobilize to incite or commit violence,” the alert said.
The Threat of Authoritarianism In The U.S. Is Very Real, And Has Nothing To Do With Trump: Greenwald
The dominant strain of U.S. neoliberalism — the ruling coalition that has now consolidated power again — is authoritarianism. They view those who oppose them and reject their pieties not as adversaries to be engaged but as enemies, domestic terrorists, bigots, extremists and violence-inciters to be fired, censored, and silenced. And they have on their side — beyond the bulk of the corporate media, and the intelligence community, and Wall Street — an unprecedentedly powerful consortium of tech monopolies willing and able to exert greater control over a population that has rarely if ever, been so divided, drained, deprived and anemic.
All of these authoritarian powers will, ironically, be invoked and justified in the name of stopping authoritarianism — not from those who wield power but from the movement that was just removed from power. Those who spent four years shrieking to great profit about the dangers of lurking “fascism” will — without realizing the irony — now use this merger of state and corporate power to consolidate their own authority, control the contours of the permissible debate, and silence those who challenge them even further. Those most vocally screaming about growing authoritarianism in the U.S. over the last four years were very right in their core warning, but very wrong about the real source of that danger.
How America Changed During Donald Trump’s Presidency
Trump’s status as a political outsider, his outspoken nature and his willingness to upend past customs and expectations of presidential behavior made him a constant focus of public attention, as well as a source of deep partisan divisions.
Even before he took office, Trump divided Republicans and Democrats more than any incoming chief executive in the prior three decades.1 The gap only grew more pronounced after he became president. An average of 86% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the job over the course of his tenure, compared with an average of just 6% of Democrats – the widest partisan gap in approval for any president in the modern era of polling.2 Trump’s overall approval rating never exceeded 50% and fell to a low of just 29% in his final weeks in office, shortly after a mob of his supporters attacked the Capitol.
Republicans and Democrats weren’t just divided over Trump’s handling of the job. They also interpreted many aspects of his character and personality in fundamentally opposite ways. In a 2019 survey, at least three-quarters of Republicans said the president’s words sometimes or often made them feel hopeful, entertained, informed, happy and proud. Even larger shares of Democrats said his words sometimes or often made them feel concerned, exhausted, angry, insulted and confused.
Hedge Fund CIO: “The Truth Is That America’s Self-Destructive Odyssey Has Only Just Begun”
From Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
Dusted off an anecdote from my discussion with a Nobel Laureate on thought viruses, memes, idea-microbes, contagion (see below). After generations of relative social calm, when the things that drove markets were petty bumps in unemployment/inflation and periodic crises of our own creation, we must reorient our trading/investing around societal narratives. Because, as much as those hoping for a return to normalcy try to see today’s DC drama as the final chapter in a short story, the truth is that America’s self-destructive odyssey has only just begun.
And like all our great nation’s harrowing wanders through the wilderness, the reward will be renewal – but not for a decade.
An Ominous Sign: Americans Have Begun Stealing Food To Survive
If you’ve been waiting for a sign that things are really bad economically in the United States, here it is. Americans who never would have contemplated shoplifting before are stealing food to survive.
One of the things that we often say in preparedness circles as we watch chaotic Black Friday scenes or fiery riots unfold is, “You think it’s bad now? Just wait until people are hungry!” Well, guess what? People are hungry. Food insecurity and hunger
DHS Issues New Terror Advisory On “Domestic Violent Extremists” Who “Object To Presidential Transition”
On Wednesday the Department of Homeland Security issued a new “National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin” or NTAS for the United States.
But the newest DHS posting emphasized the “domestic threat” of “ideologically-motivated violent extremists” with objections to “the presidential transition” — a clear reference to the Capitol Hill riot of January 6, as well as to the “predicted” follow-up mass demonstrations and assaults on D.C. which never materialized (resulting in thousands of bored National Guardsmen sauntering around Washington).
Information suggests that some ideologically-motivated violent extremists with objections to the exercise of governmental authority and the presidential transition, as well as other perceived grievances fueled by false narratives, could continue to mobilize to incite or commit violence.”
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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February 11, 2021
Even the well-known contrarians are holding the traditional lines of thought.
The Short Term cycles have played out well; the lows expected in late January came in on the 29th, as seen in the first chart. All three of the major cash indices are at an extreme high in the COT dates as shown in the calendar. Further, the market is in I-T and S-T resistance zone, the ideal place for a new trade to be put on, aka play the break or fade the gap.
I have posted their trigger levels below on each chart. The current market is set up for a sell signal this week. The unfiltered tidal cycles are expected to flip from today into the 17th. Contrary Thinker is expecting the peak and ATH in that time frame. I thought we had them on the 14th, but the market quickly repressed the spike in volatility.
February 5, 2021
Every dog thinks he’s an alpha until he meets a Wolf
A wolf can’t be trained to perform in the circus or corralled into an area to be speared for the sport of it.
Somethings are worth repeating, the high on 1/14/21 was expected, and tidal forces pulled prices lower into the 29th as expected – please see COT table for that period. From that near term, if the 14th was taken out the rally into a peak of ” from 2/1/2021 to 2/8/2021,” would put the high in line with a previous secular bull market peak in 1966.