CT Journals
March 31, 2021
Volatility Reports 4/1/21
“All things are poison, and it is the dosage that makes it either a poison or a remedy.”
The bottom line is anything in excess will kill you sooner or later. No one needs to tell Powell or Yellen this; the facts are the road back to normalcy will be a rocky one.
The S-T two-week tidal model used by MarketMap-2021, our scenario planner, has been accurate this year when contained within this ascending channel since the March/April 2020 low. The first chart used today shows the easy “in on the open out on the open” two-week cycle filtered by our “Alpha Trend Tracker.” Available now on the TradingApp Store of TradeStation, includes CT’s publications. http://bit.ly/AlphaTrendTracker
The tidal cycle without filters is reliable for backing the trader up with his S-T bias and keeps him on the front foot when to expect change. More on that in the newest issue of MarketMap-2021 Scenario Planner coming soon. It is a critical tool used to help discern bigger cycle change of trends when nesting them with the volatility background expecting a change in dynamics.
March 31, 2021
Volatility Reports Bonds 3/31/2021
Just like most people by nature, I look for the truth. Yet today, it is flattering to see others finally talking in the same terms I found critical years ago, like the timing of market dynamics based on market context.
Like the following “When we get these types of extended moves away from the 200-day MA in the 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX, we historical get a period of sideways action following” Well, someone predicting the timing of a market condition, a trading range.
But the 80% deviation above the 200 MA as the indicator of a sideways market vs. a correction from the event is being based on the functionality of an oscillator.
March 25, 2021
Volatility Reports 3/25/2021
The start of the bear remains unnoticed
The calendar count starts with the Dow price high on March 18, 2021, and closing high on the 17th. There is more to a bull or bear market than an arbitrary definition like you will find in Investopedia. There are particular characteristics of each that differentiate them from countertrend corrections, seen by the definitions in retrospect only.
Point is that thus far there are no flags being thrown by the social media types that a bear market has started. Rather than the value class of shares, the economic cyclical companies will save the bull market in the face of the previous leadership being sold off.
The markets from the start of 2021 have given many warnings, price-based warnings overlooked by the
