June 18, 2021
If you are not paying attention to Volatility Reports, you might be SKEWED.
SKEW is similar to the VIX index, but instead of measuring implied volatility based on a normal distribution, it measures an implied risk of future returns, realizing outlier behavior. The index model defines an outlier as two or more standard deviations below the mean, characterizing a black swan event or market crash. The index value typically reflects the trading activity of portfolio managers hedging tail risk with options to protect portfolios from a large, sudden decline in the market. A SKEW value of 100 indicates the options market perceives a low risk of outlier returns; values increasing above 100 reflect an increased risk perception for future outlier event(s).
The featured chart shows that the SKEW data viewed through the %BB-Oscillator is at historical highs. A reading that the big boys with their ear to the ground hear the train coming. They expect an event and a large and or prolonged negative reaction to the event. It may be a black swan; it may be something so overlooked that no one believed it pushed the market over the trend following the cliff.
According to the MarketMap-2021 cycles, that change is changing the trend from sideways to down, and a final peak in the NASDAQ 100.
June 15, 2021
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope, or as a . 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market” James Carville
In the previous group post and blog post, I pointed out how interest rate cycles are regular and reliable. I pointed out as well that the fear that rates are moving higher had not abated since the initial run higher and that implied fear data reveals a coiling up of the data denoting frustration and confusion by the market regarding the viability of inflation.
June 14, 2021
Jackson’s War on the Banks, the Panic of 1837 how it relates with today
The Panic of 1837 was a financial crisis in the United States that touched off a major depression, which lasted until the mid-1840s. Profits, prices, and wages went down; unemployment went up, and pessimism abounded.
June 10, 2021
Major Change of Trend (COT) Time Window June 11 +/-2 days
COT’s are price and time-based events that apply to all markets; hence investors and traders should expect “hyper-correlation.” The outside world event may be dramatic and out of the blue, what the media calls Technical.