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CT Journals
June 18, 2021
Volatility Reports 6/18/21
If you are not paying attention to Volatility Reports, you might be SKEWED.
SKEW is similar to the VIX index, but instead of measuring implied volatility based on a normal distribution, it measures an implied risk of future returns, realizing outlier behavior. The index model defines an outlier as two or more standard deviations below the mean, characterizing a black swan event or market crash. The index value typically reflects the trading activity of portfolio managers hedging tail risk with options to protect portfolios from a large, sudden decline in the market. A SKEW value of 100 indicates the options market perceives a low risk of outlier returns; values increasing above 100 reflect an increased risk perception for future outlier event(s).
The featured chart shows that the SKEW data viewed through the %BB-Oscillator is at historical highs. A reading that the big boys with their ear to the ground hear the train coming. They expect an event and a large and or prolonged negative reaction to the event. It may be a black swan; it may be something so overlooked that no one believed it pushed the market over the trend following the cliff.
According to the MarketMap-2021 cycles, that change is changing the trend from sideways to down, and a final peak in the NASDAQ 100.
June 15, 2021
Volatility Reports Bonds 6/15/2021
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope, or as a . 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market” James Carville
In the previous group post and blog post, I pointed out how interest rate cycles are regular and reliable. I pointed out as well that the fear that rates are moving higher had not abated since the initial run higher and that implied fear data reveals a coiling up of the data denoting frustration and confusion by the market regarding the viability of inflation.
June 14, 2021
MarketMap Issue#11
Jackson’s War on the Banks, the Panic of 1837 how it relates with today
The Panic of 1837 was a financial crisis in the United States that touched off a major depression, which lasted until the mid-1840s. Profits, prices, and wages went down; unemployment went up, and pessimism abounded.
June 10, 2021
Volatility Reports 6/10/21
Major Change of Trend (COT) Time Window June 11 +/-2 days
COT’s are price and time-based events that apply to all markets; hence investors and traders should expect “hyper-correlation.” The outside world event may be dramatic and out of the blue, what the media calls Technical.