July 20, 2021
Volatility Report Fang Index
The Fang’s days are over, traders see low-risk high-reward short selling here.
Almost a year ago I pointed out that Tesla was: “From a risk management point of view, the type of L-T buying for the last eight months is FOMO, panic buying, see the left window of the monthly chart, as easy to flip as the gold markets flip recently.
Contrary Thinker will be looking at the S-T charts for a sell signal. The I-T to L-T risk is 600, where it began its panic buying.”
Today the Fang+ index is looking at a double top that happens to be at predicted COT dates. The 2/19/221 dates were astrological and set a theme of corrections for the year and the COT on the 14th was a Solar-Lunar COT, an Astrological COT date, and the exact date of the secondary peak of the Nasdaq dot com peak in 2000, which is also in gear with the 45-year cycle (22 1/2 year).
July 16, 2021
Why Join Contrary Thinker? Because Chance favors the Collective Mind.
On three different media!
It is just not about the services. The two market analysis newsletters meld into a system and actionable ideas. It’s just not about getting ETF and Option trade ideas on your phone. Plus, it is singularly just not about systems and indicators available on TradeStation’s TradingApp Store. It is about Collaboration in our private group in the space LinkedIn provides me.
Back in 2003, I read a magazine article, “Why Collaborate?” It pointed to the trend of sharing as nothing more than a meaningless fade and something only used for sales/marketing, aka social media marketing (SMM).
Today, collaboration remains widely doubted when it comes to trading, investing, and risk management. The aftereffects of WFC linger. Plus, the “Great Bull Market” has created a cottage industry of “do it yourself” types with little or professional know-how, all caught up in the work-a-holic “hustle culture of social media. Where the trend bails them out of mistakes, at least it did until twice in 2018 and 2020 in a big way. The decade of market timing has started, only a few have noticed.
The point is being open to “teamwork” because it is essential. The internet has broken down the bastions of Wall Street to allow groups outside the boardrooms to develop ideas and methods that can compete with the big boys.
All of that is simply anecdotal evidence to support the notion that collaboration is worth investing your time in. The fact that so many new software apps and add-ons are coming to market that support collaboration spaces and direct messaging – confirms this notion. But to assume that it is all available for free via the public stream of Twitter or Facebook is naïve, which will become clearer as the market becomes more dominated by experienced market timers.
While it is a historical FACT that collaborating in teams, groups, guilds, associations, or corporations historically and today spearheads our capitalistic system, cynicism remains.
Nothing has been invented without group collaboration independent of the abstract model of capitalism of Ann Rand’s Fountain Head.
So, the question is: HOW do you want to leverage your time? And WHO do you want to collaborate with?
If you are a professional advisor (RIA) or a private capital manager, a family capital manager, or a trader, Contrary Thinker provides you with a professional private group to participate in.
Thus, providing you with just not static and isolated ideas in newsletter format or on a blog that the analyst group thinks is good for you and your people. Rather, you have access to good analysis for your people, fits your objectives, fills gaps, and assists you in leveraging your time by allowing you to do what you do best. How? By collaborating through feedback, questions, and request.
Thank you for visiting with us in the private space LinkedIn provides my team and me to communicate and support new friends and existing members.
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Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020
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July 7, 2021
Bitcoin A Leading Risk Asset
Back on May 8, 2020, Contrary Thinker stated that “… Bitcoin is a risk asset and leads the stock market direction. It is not a hedge.”
While the coin supply is controlled, everyone is a crypto coin miner, creating new digital assets. So Bitcoin is a brand like Coke or Kleenex and a leader, but many, many, many more on the market and many on the way.
The sentiment is over the moon on BTC. Calling for $50,000.
July 6, 2021
Volatility Reports 7/7/21 US Dollar
Demand for the USD from all corners of the world is expected to increase with economic opportunities created by Biden’s “Build it Back Better” plans.
Contrary Thinker is bullish on the buck since its double bottom in 2014. Along the way, I have pointed out that the Euro was a farce based on numerous sovereign nations forming a union because their proximity would not overcome their differences in culture and language and leadership. The central bank for the EU has its own QE issues to deal with and a lack of economic recovery hangover because of the austerity measures they took after the WFC. To date, they are still trying to catch up.
But that is the speculation behinds the bearish Euro bullish Dollar outlook. What is more important is what the market is saying.
The features three window screen grab shown here moves from left to right, long term monthly bar to intermediate-term weekly bar to short term daily bar. The red shaded area is the sell-off into August of last year, reaching a panic extreme. When TEM hits Rule#1 like that, it calls for a flat, choppy period to follow. The proverbial dead cat bounce after a panic sell-off. When TEM hits rule#1, 90% of the time or better, expect a low to be in place, and the market builds a new base.
Like a panic top, it is a change of trend, and the emotional pain that short positions are in will give them the impetus to flip out of their positions. The emotional selling started at 94. Thus the market will move to this area now without much problem. Why now?
My volatility model – TEM – for both the weekly and daily bar have cycled to new extremes that suggest a trending move will pick up a following on the next breakout or MA crossover. The latter has happened on the weekly bar, and my AlphaTracking MA gave a standalone buy signal three weeks ago.
However, what is more, important is the S-T daily bar is on a fresh and leading TE#2, setting up the spring for a breakout. I have included the data window in the chart so traders can see the breakout levels. A move above 92.80 is bullish, and as stated above, a move to 94 should be easy.
While the relationship between Gold and the USD has typically and very publically been one of negative correlation, it is not a necessity. Furthermore, a strong dollar does not put the bash on commodity-based inflation. Regarding the latter, the demand for raw materials priced in dollars is not the same as monetary-based inflation, which all the gold bugs and inflationists can talk about.
Bottom line and current working positions and suggestions.
I am bearish on emerging growth markets, bearish on gold, bullish on inflation, bearish on the local stock indices, and bearish on bonds. I would call that right-hand tail risk.