July 20, 2021
The Fang’s days are over, traders see low-risk high-reward short selling here.
Almost a year ago I pointed out that Tesla was: “From a risk management point of view, the type of L-T buying for the last eight months is FOMO, panic buying, see the left window of the monthly chart, as easy to flip as the gold markets flip recently.
Contrary Thinker will be looking at the S-T charts for a sell signal. The I-T to L-T risk is 600, where it began its panic buying.”
Today the Fang+ index is looking at a double top that happens to be at predicted COT dates. The 2/19/221 dates were astrological and set a theme of corrections for the year and the COT on the 14th was a Solar-Lunar COT, an Astrological COT date, and the exact date of the secondary peak of the Nasdaq dot com peak in 2000, which is also in gear with the 45-year cycle (22 1/2 year).
July 16, 2021
Why Join Contrary Thinker? Because Chance favors the Collective Mind.
On three different media!
It is just not about the services. The two market analysis newsletters meld into a system and actionable ideas. It’s just not about getting ETF and Option trade ideas on your phone. Plus, it is singularly just not about systems and indicators available on TradeStation’s TradingApp Store. It is about Collaboration in our private group in the space LinkedIn provides me.
Back in 2003, I read a magazine article, “Why Collaborate?” It pointed to the trend of sharing as nothing more than a meaningless fade and something only used for sales/marketing, aka social media marketing (SMM).
Today, collaboration remains widely doubted when it comes to trading, investing, and risk management. The aftereffects of WFC linger. Plus, the “Great Bull Market” has created a cottage industry of “do it yourself” types with little or professional know-how, all caught up in the work-a-holic “hustle culture of social media. Where the trend bails them out of mistakes, at least it did until twice in 2018 and 2020 in a big way. The decade of market timing has started, only a few have noticed.
The point is being open to “teamwork” because it is essential. The internet has broken down the bastions of Wall Street to allow groups outside the boardrooms to develop ideas and methods that can compete with the big boys.
All of that is simply anecdotal evidence to support the notion that collaboration is worth investing your time in. The fact that so many new software apps and add-ons are coming to market that support collaboration spaces and direct messaging – confirms this notion. But to assume that it is all available for free via the public stream of Twitter or Facebook is naïve, which will become clearer as the market becomes more dominated by experienced market timers.
While it is a historical FACT that collaborating in teams, groups, guilds, associations, or corporations historically and today spearheads our capitalistic system, cynicism remains.
Nothing has been invented without group collaboration independent of the abstract model of capitalism of Ann Rand’s Fountain Head.
So, the question is: HOW do you want to leverage your time? And WHO do you want to collaborate with?
If you are a professional advisor (RIA) or a private capital manager, a family capital manager, or a trader, Contrary Thinker provides you with a professional private group to participate in.
Thus, providing you with just not static and isolated ideas in newsletter format or on a blog that the analyst group thinks is good for you and your people. Rather, you have access to good analysis for your people, fits your objectives, fills gaps, and assists you in leveraging your time by allowing you to do what you do best. How? By collaborating through feedback, questions, and request.
Thank you for visiting with us in the private space LinkedIn provides my team and me to communicate and support new friends and existing members.
Please accept this letter as a friendly reminder not to let your visitors pass run out and become a full member to Contrary Thinker today.
Take the 45-day subscription trial, which includes the eBook of MarketMap’s 2021/22 cycles, the Special Report “Traits of a Market Panic to make a Fortune PLUS eligible for a long-term discount when you subscribe.
Includes all of the ETF trade recommendations! and CT will be adding Options and Futures shortly.
If you are a systems trader with TradeStation™ renting any of my products from the TradingApp™ Store is the same as becoming a Contrary Thinker membership. Check them out here. All the same bennies plus the system from the App Store.
On the go, most of the time? Would you like an inexpensive way to get the trade ideas published here on the blog but on your phone? Get the Trade Exchange app for free, use this URL to sign up for free to have access to Contrary Thinker’s trading ideas, and if you take a trade idea(s), you only pay for the ones that are winners. You’ve got it, only if it is a winner; and Jack is a low-risk trader who swings for the fences 10 to 1 give to take.
Membership benefits and services
MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles.
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.
Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR
25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.
–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options
July 7, 2021
Back on May 8, 2020, Contrary Thinker stated that “… Bitcoin is a risk asset and leads the stock market direction. It is not a hedge.”
While the coin supply is controlled, everyone is a crypto coin miner, creating new digital assets. So Bitcoin is a brand like Coke or Kleenex and a leader, but many, many, many more on the market and many on the way.
The sentiment is over the moon on BTC. Calling for $50,000.
July 6, 2021
Demand for the USD from all corners of the world is expected to increase with economic opportunities created by Biden’s “Build it Back Better” plans.
Contrary Thinker is bullish on the buck since its double bottom in 2014. Along the way, I have pointed out that the Euro was a farce based on numerous sovereign nations forming a union because their proximity would not overcome their differences in culture and language and leadership. The central bank for the EU has its own QE issues to deal with and a lack of economic recovery hangover because of the austerity measures they took after the WFC. To date, they are still trying to catch up.
But that is the speculation behinds the bearish Euro bullish Dollar outlook. What is more important is what the market is saying.
The features three window screen grab shown here moves from left to right, long term monthly bar to intermediate-term weekly bar to short term daily bar. The red shaded area is the sell-off into August of last year, reaching a panic extreme. When TEM hits Rule#1 like that, it calls for a flat, choppy period to follow. The proverbial dead cat bounce after a panic sell-off. When TEM hits rule#1, 90% of the time or better, expect a low to be in place, and the market builds a new base.
Like a panic top, it is a change of trend, and the emotional pain that short positions are in will give them the impetus to flip out of their positions. The emotional selling started at 94. Thus the market will move to this area now without much problem. Why now?
My volatility model – TEM – for both the weekly and daily bar have cycled to new extremes that suggest a trending move will pick up a following on the next breakout or MA crossover. The latter has happened on the weekly bar, and my AlphaTracking MA gave a standalone buy signal three weeks ago.
However, what is more, important is the S-T daily bar is on a fresh and leading TE#2, setting up the spring for a breakout. I have included the data window in the chart so traders can see the breakout levels. A move above 92.80 is bullish, and as stated above, a move to 94 should be easy.
While the relationship between Gold and the USD has typically and very publically been one of negative correlation, it is not a necessity. Furthermore, a strong dollar does not put the bash on commodity-based inflation. Regarding the latter, the demand for raw materials priced in dollars is not the same as monetary-based inflation, which all the gold bugs and inflationists can talk about.
Bottom line and current working positions and suggestions.
I am bearish on emerging growth markets, bearish on gold, bullish on inflation, bearish on the local stock indices, and bearish on bonds. I would call that right-hand tail risk.