August 26, 2021
Unknown Unknown (Black Swan) or Known Unknown (Events Considered by Smart Money)
I’ll put it this way, the presidential race in 2024 will be Harris Vs Cheney. But first what is the market saying. For one, a panic buying signal was registered on 23 and 324 of August. The volatility background revealed an extreme of irrational buying on these two dates. 99% of the time they are events rather than conditions, the latter is normally witnessed on long bars, like the monthly chart, and used for risk and opportunity management. However, in the daily bar, it is almost always a “V” bottom or inverted “V” top, leading to a change of trend.
August 26, 2021
On the 16th of August VR said: “The set up for a big move by the bonds is now; only time will tell if it’s valid” August 26, no change.
While some may argue that a major double top is not in place, and from an EWT point of view, there are only three legs in the current sell-off, two down with an intervening rally. An A-B-C zig-zag, fair enough.
As a sidebar, I think this is where many advisors and capital managers get off the train because they feel they will look like an idiot telling their clients they are bullish on bonds because of it’s a zig-zag and not an impulse or motive wave.
Maybe one just needs a nose for change, see the handwriting on the wall, or get that minor necking pain in your neck (the later à la George Soros.) Be that as it is, the pressure is mounting for higher rates from all quarters, including the most important factor, the market itself. Leaving aside that South Korea was the first major country on the Pacrim to hike rates, both US 30 years and 10 years have the background for a dynamic trend to unfold at any time.
The monthly bar and the daily bar of the ten years have the Volatility Model signaling a Technical Event #2, a set up that