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September 30, 2021

MarketMap Issue#15

The 90-year Cycle is one of Grim Awakenings

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September 29, 2021

New Trade Ideas

Top Ten Positions

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September 27, 2021

There are more than 6,500 cryptocurrencies in existence as of September 2021. The bullish case is not based on a limited supply, it’s a matter of branding.

Bitcoin is the bellwether of risk-takers
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September 27, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/27/21

Historical Thresholds are Rare, Hence Money Managers, Investment Advisors, and Economists Tend to Operate and Think in Crowds.

They are comfortable that way justifying why they take risks with the objective of beating the average return of the S&P when max drawdowns are always possible based on their own rationale that no one can time the market?

Instead, let us see what is the market saying as of Friday.

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September 27, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/27/21 Dollar Index

Expectations from the 9/16 Volatility Report called for a two to five weeks bull run in the buck.

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September 22, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/22/21

Monday it was pointed out that “cycles are lower into the next COT due early this week, the 20th”

To be clear MarketMap – 2021 issue#14 said, “Here is the key if the market blows clear through that date and without any traditional TA calling for a low plus the new TA dynamics timing supporting a forceful trend, the odds will favor the new bear market into mid-October.”

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September 22, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/22/21 CGX and EEM

Typical trend following content is beginning to flood the social media tracks with all the reasons why one should be bearish on the Shanghai Dow.

The execution of our bearish positions began in March 2021 and was filling out in July. Our bearish positions are now up over 50% +/- and we are only halfway there; and will double down on the break (see execution table below.)

While the negativity is over the top, it is clear that at least an I-T cyclical peak has been established in the PacRim and emerging markets; and from China to Nikkei risk is 30%

The top chart is the monthly bar of the…

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September 19, 2021

MarketMap2021 Issue #14

A major test of the cubby bear market is expected this week. The downtrend that started in the Dow on August 16 needs to invert the shortest cycle lows due early this week, in order for the bear to be for real and a forceful trend.

Trends are aberrations.  For a pro-directional move to take place ( i.e., the market was down yesterday means it will be down today and that will be followed by a down day tomorrow, etc) the market must break the cycle to one smaller degree.

MarketMap™-2021 pointed out in the last issue that “tidal forces tend to keep the low and highs trading in two weeks from low to high and two weeks back to a low.” This is a natural occurrence that all investors and traders observe daily. It is a four-week peak to peak cycle and a four-week cycle from low to low.

It should be intuitive and obvious that during up trends the high pivots become inverted – may only last a day or less and during meaningful declines the low pivots last only a day or less, aka cycle inversion.

From the peak in the Dow on the 16th of August – a tidal low was expected- and since that inversion, each row in the table is highlighted in red denoting a downtrend.  The high on the 7th of September happened for the FANG and Nasdaq pointing cycles lower into the next COT due early this week, the 20th.

Here is the key if …

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September 16, 2021

Volatility Reports U S Dollar

Two weeks to five-week bull run expected in the USD

The change of trend that hit on 9/6/21 is followed almost always by a 2 week to a 5-week trend. Like all COTs, they are direction neutral but the Dollar index is taking off higher and triggering buy signals.

Thanks to members and new network pros for keeping the previous post from one week ago in mind,- on the COT 9/6/21. Three weeks back in the blog post-VR 8/26/21 the price-based background provided long-term bullish conclusions.

URL to private LinkedIn Group for open-minded investment/trading professionals https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13677288/

Here is the three window look at the buck and what is attention-getting is that all three bars have put the Technical Event Model (TEM) at an extreme rule#2. This is not the typical analysis talk, it is not a sales gimmick, it is the tool used to see when a market’s dynamics are about to change. What the Technical Event #2 signals are to play the break, enter on the MA crossover, or whatever is used that triggers your entry position.

What is expected to be powerful is the bullish break because all time frames are on a TE#2. You can see the breakout levels on the charts that should add confidence to bull market traders. It is also the pain trade carried by the large managed funds, in an attempt to keep the dollar depressed, which is bullish for their stocks.

You don’t need to trade with a bias, but based on what else shows up on the charts, which is bullish. On 9/9/21 I added to my long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD. That advisory was posted in this space. #dollar #change #network

Long-term cycles are pointing higher into 2026-27. This fits with the analogist background that the dollar throughout US history is strong when the Dems. control the white house and weak when the Reps are in power.

The above bullish analysis on the dollar is not very popular. That may be because it is not full of hyperbole that we all find in the social media information stream regarding Bitcoin & Co, Gold, Silver, and the Euro, not to mention the hot stock pick of the week.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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September 13, 2021

Early & Late Trades 9.13.21

If you did not read the Volatility Report sent out Sunday, the blog post is not encrypted yet for members only plus it was emailed. Have a read see the undertow for yourself.
Three new trades this afternoon, click to enlarge the screengrab, cheers.
Here are a few newer trade ideas, keep in mind the opportunity vs risk is 10 to 1, so work the orders, there is nothing magical about my fills, you do a little better or worse for the same ratios
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