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October 27, 2021

Dynamic New Trade Posts

Dynamic Trade Page – Full View Spreadsheets

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October 26, 2021

Bitcoin Risk Assessment

 

The Power of the Technical Event Model™ (TEM)

The idea of a precondition aka set up – is for the context of the market to tell you in the simplest of explanations, “if you should trade the trend following signals or trade the reversals of the high to low range.”  Sure the analyst can have a bias for a market’s direction, but the essence of TEM is dynamics timing, not direction. Its power is also based in the data it uses allowing it to measure risk and opportunity in any time frame.

In Forbes TEM was presented this way regarding Bitcoin,

Charles Bovaird Forbes Senior Contributor

The world’s most prominent digital currency may experience sharp volatility over the next few months, according to a proprietary model created by technical analyst Jack F. Cahn.

Technical Event Model (TEM), which he developed in-house and measures extremes in sentiment, is a price-based macro filter that helps algorithmic trading programs predict when market dynamics are about to change and what to expect.

The model, which was designed to be direction-neutral, indicates whether the market is about to break into a new trend or has entered a period of panic buying or selling.

Recently, Cahn wrote that the TEM “suggests a range expansion in October/November.”

More specifically, the technical analyst indicated that his model “is suggesting a monthly range expansion of 20k for Oct and or Nov.”

It might take place “from the open of the month to the close of the month, maybe faster, but the risk is 20k,” Cahn added.


The bold italics are my highlighting of his interview, which allows me to point out TEM’s power. Thus far the BTC has a range of near 20k and may challenge the previous long bar of 30k.  However, the risk remains a bear market back to 13k at least. So long-term investors need to do their risk analysis here as BTC succeeds or fails to hold new highs and move higher.

As the premier risk taker’s market, Contrary Thinker’s sees its background as weak per the above. Hence, it will not take much to change in the market’s direction for new money to flip out of the BTC. Since Profund’s ETF came to the NYSE on the 18th of October, the market’s advance stopped on the 20th and gave back 8k. Not overtly bearish but soft nonetheless.

Volatility Reports predication of a “monthly range expansion of 20k for Oct and or Nov” was on the money. Thus far the range is at 23,500 after hitting its next measured move level as seen in the left-hand monthly chart.

For BTC ($BRTI) to continue its monthly high/low range expansion, the market needs to trigger that movement outside of the current narrow range. A drop below 58k would be bearish and new monthly highs bullish.

Our Short term cycle is still pointing up and our trend-following systems is still bullish. My gut tells me to be looking for a reversal as the books for November open.  The monthly chart pegs risk to 10k. If the market just witnessed a double top, or in EWT terms an irregular top, the decline that should follow will be a forceful high rate (HROC) of change trend. The daily bar’s TEM supports this idea of the trend if a sell is triggered via support break or MA cross-under.

Contrary Thinker makes traditional technical analysis including EWT better, give the membership a go today.


Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND. Contrary Thinker   MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS

October 17, 2021

Volatility Reports 10/18/21

 

Bullish retorts were raining down on Wall Street Friday, “the bull is back baby!”

“Is The Great “Bear Market” Of 2021 Finally Over?”

“Yes, New All-Time Highs Are Coming”

“S&P 500: The Path To 5,000”

“The Second Wave (Of Value Stocks)”

“Sentiment Speaks: Man, This Is A Confusing Market”

But they are missing the big picture

The change of energy regimes, the cultural changes preceding the merging of the staus-quo into something new. The moving beyond the statistical-based social physics and variance into something more attuned to social quantum physics. Maybe you are not in “before time.”

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October 12, 2021

Volatility Reports 10/12/21

Timing is just not everything it is the only thing that matters when it comes to market performance superiority
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October 5, 2021

Contrary Thinker 10.6.21

Contrary Thinker knows its more than its last winning trade, How does nailing – forecasting – the ATH translate into your overall performance and achieving alpha, an above-average performance?

Open Positions Offshore ETFs mostly Pac Rim

[office_doc id=’63896′]

So, you invested your time reading our research brief the Volatility Reports, and here is your takeaway and take it seriously. The secret to successful trading is precisely how the famous names do it; I mean Richard Dennis and his Turtle Traders, among others.

To control risk, don’t trade, do not trade unless everything is in your favor to take a position. That is everything according to the trade plan/strategy that provides you with your best trades. Once into the winning position or winning streak, go for the kill, leverage up systematically.

The Technical Event Model teaches the trader how to wait for their idea moment, no matter the time frame you are trading.

It knows how to lose small and profit large. 

Six Month  Membership only $49/mo
$295.00 

QQQ set up from close Tuesday into the end of the week, new positions will be put on, stay tuned. Advance your trading, collaborate with Contrary Thinker become a full member today.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2021

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

October 4, 2021

Volatility Reports

Wedging out a top and TEM both daily bar and weekly bar support an HROC trend.

high beta index trade idea

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October 4, 2021

The battle for a brand name

Everything you see around you came from Man’s imagination and intellect.  So it goes, “in first best dressed!” Flaws and all look at Windows OS. Bitcoin, like Coke, Kleenex, and  Hertz, has the brand.

So anytime you’re referring to a Bitcoin, it could be about the ten thousand other cryptos on the market or coming to market, and with that so ends the limited supply side of the sales pitch.

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