• Background Image

    CT Journals

November 27, 2021

MarketMap 2022 Annual Scenario Planner

The most obvious synchronicities of historical events happen at the
beginning of the cycle.
Times when change becomes unavoidable

The first topic I want to highlight here is that the history of the stock market in the states does not start with 1950, which is all I read from the “information” providers regarding their statistics. As if the baby boom was going to last forever, which peaked in 1968. Or, the 100 years of market history that preceded the post WW2 boom was somehow transcended after the 1949 low by a superior emotional intellect.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 20, 2021

Our Trading Method give the Industry a Brain Cramp

It takes a pair of stones to execute for the doubles, triples, or better

But it’s not what you think, because high risk does not mean high reward, it just means high risk, which is what we avoid

You hear in the trading industry the term “set up” all the time but I am not too sure if people have a good handle on what it is and what it really means to Contrary Thinker.

It is the precondition for a low-risk high reward trade that is going to happen imminently. It is on the brink of the move. That is the type of setup we are looking for and we have a model that tells us when that is occurring. A model that includes both price and time to give us a leading indicator of what dynamics to expect and a timing cycle to tell us when to expect it.

Look, everybody is looking for a trading pattern that has the potential to become a winning trade, one with a big price movement. I mean, after all, everybody wants the big winner, and we study technical analysis to determine the trend and look for good stocks and whatever to buy and sell to meet our criteria.

But what we really want exactly is the ability to find big winners.

That is what Country Thinker is doing for its clients. It is not easy and takes a set of stones to see it through. The key is to do it as the great ones have done over the centuries. Find an enormous potential where the market is near a price level that says you are wrong. So, if hit the stop loss cost 5%. Whereas the profit target is 50% or better for a modest example.

These circumstances are not that difficult to find with patients and to execute with persistence. Yet the majority become turned off because industry advertisements say it can’t be down, no one can time the market to wealth, the great ones are a myth, and from an emotional point of view with the use of a nearby stop loss, just the noise in the market can get the position stopped out. So, the approach could mean you get stopped out three or four or five times before you finally get the entry that sticks and you make a ton, you bring in that 50% winner after 25% of drawdown. Better yet, CT’s targets 100% plus in the majority and you are 75% of the game. A ten to 1 or a 5 to 1/2 setup is our preference.

The mental gear shifting the trader has to do is take the ego need for percent win rates out of consideration and think in terms of reward, the big reward. Why take an average investment – S&P long-term gain of 11% per year over 30 years – while suffering along the way 30% to 70% drawdowns!

Weekly newsletter Volatility Reports will put you in front of the rest, let you know if and where the sets ups are so you are ready to execute. For only $10/month, you can follow all four of CT’s products or just one; and you only pay for a trade idea if a profit exceeds the percent returns the program is has set as a minimum return, from 10% to 25% on the trade depending on the product.  Best of all it’s on your handheld device with straight thorough processing for select brokers.
Use this deep link on your smartphone or iPad and be set up and ready to go in less than five minutes.
https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Contrary Thinker is working for you

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

November 15, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.15.21 Video Outlook

Contrary Thinker is more than a Contrarian.

Our group created a volatility model that predicts change and the quality of buying and selling. We also founded the New School of Technical Analysis, 100% price based where media provides a back story, after the fact.

 

Traders like Jesse Livermore spoke about his first principle that making big money is by sitting and waiting, not trading. They are waiting until all the factors are in favor of his trading strategy before making the trade.

The modern-day hedge funds control risk by not taking a risk, but once everything is 100% correct based on their comprehensive system or trade plan checklist, they enter the markets and, in the words of Druckenmiller, “go for the jugular, they leverage up throughout the series to maximize profits. This is exactly what the Turtle Traders do with their trend-following systems.

Six Month  Membership only $49/mo
$295.00 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

November 9, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/9/21

What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable?

We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal”  to the new “Gilded Ages” pro-business laissez-faire now called neoliberal, aka new liberal. What also changed from 1980 to date is the configuration of the house/senate and the president’s parties. Gridlock has been the configuration of governmental power in the majority over the last 40 years.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 7, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.8.21

They all like to refer to Robert J Farrell and quote his ten rules

But few if any worked for him and the majority pay his rules lip service quoting them in social media marketing as information only.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 6, 2021

iCahn Scalp the Stock Index Futures

iCahn Scalp is a simple trend following system that takes advantage of a high rate of change market. Obviously, these forceful trends do not happen every day. CT developed back in 2011 a volatility matrix that signals market context, as in when to expect a forceful trend. It is not a disclaimer to say its not perfect, but it does increase your odds of success; and my best team is always working toward perfect.

CT does not suggest fooling around with inputs except the ones that impact contract sizing. This is based on Richard Dennis’s Turtle contract sizing strategy, but macro filtered by the above-mentioned Technical Event Matrix.

To turn off contract sizing set Agro to “False” and to set the number of contracts you want to trade, input that number at mini-contracts.”

When Agro is set to “True” after a winning trade the next trade will be increased by the number of contracts in the AgroUp field, after a loser, it will revert to the min contracts when AgroDn is set to -1. MaxContracts should be self-explanatory and adjusted for your contract size and risk profile.

Keep in mind that with Turtle contract sizing (Agro) set to true, it does not come into play unless a favorable market condition exists. Below you will see RuleToAgro inputs, where 2 and 4 are inputted. These two Macro conditions are supportive of breakout expansion and forceful trend markets.

Whereas Rule2Block is after a rule number 3 is signals which calls for a low energy, low volatility market independent of direction.  If the market has signaled a rule number 1, only minum number of contracts are allowed to be traded. The idea is clear. As in everyday life and business, 80% of your productivity and profits come from 20% of your activity. This is what the Macro filter is striving for and achievable to increase your odds of success.

Download New Performance Reports here from dropbox for your cross-check.

Backdrop and user videos from this web page.

Do you like to hack around in concept idea code, systems, and indicators from my library over 20 years of development?  Look at this holiday offer on over 1000 strategies and 1000 indicators.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2021

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

November 4, 2021

Contrary Thinker 11/4/21

I may get frustrated but I am not hallucinating. That the results of all the “lies” from several cable news networks to fringe groups with large internet followings purporting blood-sucking pedophilia circles attributed to the elite undermines the best political system we have for capitalism.

The above reflects Cycle peaks are clustered in this time frame, from the peak on Nov. 18 for the Dow into today the 16th and fill out Monday the 20th. They all relate to their own 2 to 2 1/2 year cycle, which creates a variance of a small degree. One cycle is 2.2353 years, for example. To pick out a few notable peaks caused by the 2-year cycle, a similar cluster hit in April of 2000, another July of 2007, and again in August of 2008, also mid-January 2018.

A similar configuration of cycles converged at the March 2009 low +/- 1 month.

while nothing here is perfect, there are four major cycles hitting how +/- a few days that are known for their influence to change the direction of the markets.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 2, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/2/2021

It’s not the train you hear that will kill you

In my early days, the talk use to be that a good market analysis got off wall street to get away from the pressures of the industry so he/she could form an objective point of view. Well from Gainsville to Sedona many of taken that advice. If distance matters, well living half the time in the land of Oz, the down under, should put me in a superlative environment. Well yea, ok maybe.

But a nearby journo Mark Saunokonoko, a print, online journalist, and feature writer published by the Australian 9News Network “Ten scenarios that could rock the world in 2022.” Where Mark did a good job isolating none market events, outside world events, that could have a dramatic impact on the 13-year-old “Great Bull Market”  Here is his list, my thoughts, and a few others you may have to put your ear to the ground to know something is coming.

He has grouped the ten possible threats this way: ”

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!