January 30, 2022
January 29, 2022
The frantic chatter from the public stream is misguided and uncertain.
All talk about panic and wash out and the market meeting expectations that every expert advanced for a 10 to 20% decline seems to be the majority view of the professional advisor/content provider. The problem is the so-called “correction” has no signs of a correction. That is it looks and feels just like a BTFD event and 99% in line with all the previous dips of 2021. But no signs of a correction, no long bar day decline that exceeded 3 ½%.
There is some confusion that a few believe will be sorted out by the bulls, back to “how the markets are supposed to work.”
I hear that it just can’t be that crude oil is making a seven-year high while some of the grains are coming back real strong all in the face of a strong U.S. dollar and the weakness of other currencies. This is not normal, they are saying.
How can that happen when
January 28, 2022
Nearly everyone has jumped on the idea of an S&P washed out and the idea sentiment of the everyday investor at extreme bearish readings, they say, has got to be bullish.
When it comes to contrary thinking, the old school looks at what they have been told is the public who is hard-wired to lose 90% of the time. Yea that is old school TA, goes back to monitoring the “odd lotter’s” back in the 1920 and 1930s. The inference was dumb money because they were too poor to buy a round lot, 100 shares of stock. Hell, today they pander to the people to buy fractional shares.
Well, the point is that it was genius on Wall Street who told me he looked for a wave of consensus among the professionals, the advisors, the wirehouses, and today the instantaneous internet market experts.
While surveys of little bitty old people are fine for the people that use them, the actions of the traders, capital managers, and hedgers tell a story of
January 26, 2022
“Do not wait until the conditions are perfect to begin. Beginning makes the conditions perfect.”
Two of the most profitable patterns chart watchers can come across are the irregular top and the extended fifth. They are rare but worth the wait. They are unorthodox from an EWT point of view because its the third wave that is normally extended and tops normally finish on a five wave structure
Irregular is a new high like the one shown on the Glamor/value ratio chart inserted below where point (B) was achieved on an A-B-C advance as opposed to a motive wave, five-segment structure.
It is also worth repeating TEM’s monthly charts revealing where panic buying began, which is where the market’s risk level is and
January 25, 2022
MarketMap-2022 Change of Trend Dates US Averages
From the table of change of trend dates, and the building of the Map for 2022, the scenario calls for a continuation of the intermediate-term decline into a semi-climatic low, an I-T low on or about
January 24, 2022
MarketMap-2022 Change of Trend Dates.
January 24, 2022
Hey Easy Money!
“Easy come, easy go.”
The Perma bulls are slowly flipping to a cautious point of view, while the majority is referring to the decline as a correction. The decline has shown no signs that it is a correction in an ongoing bull market to date.
Here is a stat that is well known in the industry, one I would not hang large investments or hedges on. Rather the sentiment coming from the bullish side of the talking heads is more noteworthy.
January 18, 2022
“Here Comes A Revolution!” – Saxo Bank Unveils Its ‘Outrageous Predictions’ For The Year Ahead
Time headline 1/3/2022 “Half the U.S. Believes Another Civil War Is Likely”
“Expert predicts potential US civil war, fall of democracy
A political expert has made a horrifying prediction about the future of the US with 2024 being the breaking point.” News.Com.AU
January 16, 2022
A “bear market” is a decline of more than 20%. Preceded by a bull market of more than 20%.
The “New School of Technical Analysis” has moved beyond arbitrary definitions.
MarketMap-2022 Scenario Planner will focus on similar expectations based on peaks with near-identical tidal extremes during the same seasonal period.
The seasonal bracket is the best fit for Dow Jones Industrial peaks from
December 11 to January 15.
Bull market peaks that occur in December or January produce a seasonal pattern that repeats itself. Seasonal patterns, for example, similar intervals from top to a panic low. Plus, they produce two AOD (long bars) declines that occur at a fixed interval as well. These mid-winter seasonal peaks have also been followed by geopolitical events that have caused financial distress in the markets. This latter point is critical as the market does not anticipate national security events well.
January 11, 2022
The Santa Claus Rally is Melting Away.
Since the spring of 2021, it seemed like everyone was waiting for the rush to value stocks. Well after a whip-saw double top the flow of funds into value shares vs the glamour growth stocks is here.
The first chart is the ratio between the two indices.