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    CT Journals

June 24, 2022

“No Free Lunch” Milton Friedman

“The times they are a changing”

I have pointed out that good market research provides insights into the change of trend (time) and dynamics of the trend (context) and direction of the change (price). The problem comes when the market’s vibration (oscillation) changes. When an expected low happens but from a strategy point of view you have tightened up your profit-stops protecting profits yet have to provide a smaller profit as opposed to taking a larger profit when the change was expected.

The problem is – as you will see in the chart- at some point when the trend is expected to change point (in terms of time, price and dynamics instead it will be an acceleration point, which is what we are in the game to capitalize on. In other words to max out the profits.

CT pointed out going into this week – with a redraft and update regarding one-day wonders and suggested the COT should produce a rally and potentially a one-day wonder. The market gave us what we expected and in panic buying, (poor) right into MarketMap’s change dates expected next week.

The featured chart here shows the 60-year cycle side by side. Moreover, the way a bear dies is when investors are throwing stock away at any price. I’ve highlighted that in the 1962 chart. That capitulation has yet to happen in 2022.

And no humankind has not evolved beyond being human and it will happen again. What the 2022 bear market has done is cashed in 14% or higher in profits while not getting the media’s full negative attention or the public’s with the AAII cash vs stock holdings is still near historical lows.

https://contrarythinker.com/professional-network-best-offer/

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June 19, 2022

Volatility Reports 6/21/22 (Video)

Open positions tied into the market’s position

A 20-minute video covers all open positions, how to use the respective trade idea products, clues on doubling down, and the strategy we are looking at this coming week.

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June 19, 2022

One day wonders dominated in 2008 & 1932

People that know market history invest with an unfair advantage

Going into the new holiday Monday, June 20, 2022, I thought it is time to post a historical brief from my collection. A historical brief was published one day after a one-day wonder of 2.2% on the Dow in the fourth quarter of 2018. Contrary Thinker had called for a top and a correction at the end of September. But after the one-day wonder on the 16th of October, the bulls got their bravado back. Their timing was wrong.

I refer members to a video they will have access to shortly that reviews the market’s position along with all open trading positions and expectations for the next three to four weeks.

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June 13, 2022

MarketMap™-2022 Planner #14

MarketMap™-2022 Planner from Issue#1 through to date builds a body of knowledge and a point of view that will enable you to protect your capital and make the most with your tradable cash. 

Just like an oscillator has to remain overbought for an uptrend to exist and oversold for a downtrend to persist, cycles act in the same manner. Focusing on the current bear trend that began for the NASDAQ at ATH 11/19/21 and DOW & Co on 1/4/22 it is easy to see the cycles in the chart shared in our LinkedIn group, seen here.

I will let you go back and cross-check the change dates from Issue#1 forward. One fixed rule in cycle formulas is that if there is one inversion – where a low cycle pivot did not produce a recovery – there has to be another inversion to get the cycle back in gear with itself. On this featured chart, I labeled inversions “Inv.”  The numbered count “one” through “six” is a nominal EWT count, putting the decline in wave seven down or the heart of the bearish trend.

So going into the COT date around 4/1/22 the cycle is back in gear with the most recent COT a high pivot on 6/2/22. Since that high, the downtrend has reasserted itself. I hear from a number of members that are aware of the tidal cycle, which is associated with the new and full moons, which is true with a number of nuances. Nevertheless, that lunar cycle of 27.7 to 29.5 days, is one of several cycles at play. So, you have simply two weeks up into a high pivot followed by two weeks lower into a low pivot.

However, MarketMap™ has several methods for determining pivotal dates and they are all different, based on various methodologies.  The next featured chart is the annual scenario map that is right in line with the market thus far.

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June 5, 2022

Volatility Reports Commodity Based Inflation

The perfect storm is a combination of unfavorable circumstances that come together in the same time frame.

Today, the lid that was over what world because of the pandemic has lifted for better or worse, putting increased demand on goods and services.

The “build it back better” program was needed more for American infrastructures and to advance the transition to new clean industries.

Supply chain bottlenecks, primary in China with covid shutdown; and Black Sea blockade.

The invasion of Ukraine by Putin has cut off both oil and gas supplies adding to the pressure on the supply and demand equation.

Some intermediary companies are hiking prices more than the rate of the wholesale prices under the fog of media hype.

Drought in numbers 2022 – Restoration for readiness and resilience

Source ODHA Posted  

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