• Background Image

    CT Journals

September 29, 2022

Volatility Reports September 29, 2022

Sizzle or Fizzle?

I never thought a headline phased as a question was a good way to introduce a news article or a research brief. A question reflects doubt, and I think readers want answers, not more questions. Be that as it is this morning, our pals at the “Seeking  Alpha” mailer is headed up with that query, which I assume reflects the doubt permeating the gaggle of content-providing market observers.

Tie that in with other mainstays of the personalities on financial networks which have either given into bearish notions with observations that “late cycle” economic events are happening that preclude the beginning of a new bull market, or the manic sales type permeating the podcast airways and popping up on Fox business who has gone nuts over the revelation that he has found a relationship between Cryptocurrencies – the stock market and the US dollar. “if the USD would break below 103 it be like 2017.” If not it’s the bear city.

Well ok then, that ties into the notion of a breakdown finally after nine months of correction is the fact that the perma-bulls are giving in. Both on social media and cable channels and it’s time to run with the herd.

Well, let’s start with what we know, we know that a bear market while larger than corrections, still corrects something.

The people at Charles Swabb put it this way, “It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend. Is It the Start of a Bear Market?

Well according to the compliant sell side phrase “Nobody can predict with any degree of certainty whether a correction will reverse or turn into a bear market.” 

On the contrary, there is a risk in the market from here of 10,000 Dow points and it is correcting the FOMO buying that pushed prices into their ATHs at the end of 2021. 

The featured chart here is annotated for anyone in the public domain to review. Members already have seen the additional details on how the Dow will get there when it will get there, and the why of the risk assessment.

With a high degree of certainty in Mid-May 2011 Contrary thinker told its people “off risk.” and this has not changed since that date. You will not hear anyone disputing this fact.

We suggested to our people to sell into rallies and hedge their accounts.

Contrary Thinker was provided the opportunity of a private channel on the Smartphone app “Trade Exchange” and we took it.  Our market opinions and positions are our own and do not reflect the opinion of any of the principles of  Trade Exchange, while we hope that they have made millions from the ideas

(click to enlarge)

With that said, from the ATH that we called in the NASDAQ on 11/19/21 our middle-risk big swing ETF bull and the bear trading products to date performance is on the left on the screen grab here.

 

 

 

For investors, hedge fund managers who want to reduce their cost of carrying the hedges, deep-in-the-money options traders, and aggressive traders who swing trade the futures here is how our trade ideas have done on a 100k account from November 2021 

In the past 11 months, Contrary Thinker’s trade ideas on 100k made it into over $1 million USD today.

(click to enlarge)

 

Trade Ideas? We do things the old fashion way. Contrary thinker provides support and market analysis to form the basis of the trades and get that to our informed membership and LinkedIn private group members.

You are dealing with a team led by a veteran with over 30 years of experience and suggest that if you are not experienced and have a low threshold for account balance changes, you look elsewhere.  If you can take a loss, all you have to do is get the app, pay me $10/month, and after that a nominal incentive fee only on winners greater than a preset threshold. I have to win for you to make money.

On Shore USA, yes? Use this URL https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Offshore go to your local app store and get the free Trade Exchange App, after installing it on your handheld, use the URL from your handheld device. https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Let me know when you are on board, so I can get you into the group.

Work up your own trade plan based on some of the best and most complete research in the industry. 

Quarterly Membership $249.00Six-Month Membership $425.00Annual Membership $749.00

Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Thanks in advance for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

September 28, 2022

Volatility Reports September 28, 2022

Context Gives Significance to Price and Time

The long-term background remains in an expanding monthly range condition,. Hence a breakdown to new lows would suggest a

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 18, 2022

Volatility Reports Crude Oil 9/19/22

Contrary Thinking is not about being contrary just for the sake of being contrary.

 

Sometimes you have to run with the herd and follow the trend. Looks like Fidelity is sounding a tad bearish. One of their leading managers posting in the public domain, “The fact that low beta (utilities) and late-cycle (energy) sectors are leading (showing superior relative performance ) tells me that this is not (yet) a new bull market.”

The parenthetical is my needed explanation, as bulls always think that going down less than the average means “leading.”

Is $60 a barrel from here before the end of the year possible?
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 15, 2022

MarketMap™ September 15, 2022 #19

When you have the enemy on the run, in retreat, you must pursue them relentlessly.

Volatility means big swings up and down. The news media has picked up that word as its euphemism for a market decline. However, it is volatility that is the trader’s live blood as opposed to the lack thereof for the bull-only long-term investors that simply buy and hold.

If you have looked at enough daily bar charts with the 200-day simple moving average you will see that when prices are above it, the changeability of the market is low, it’s steady as she goes. However, once the market drops below the 200 day that is where all the action is for traders.

This featured chart provides a textbook example of what two very different long-term opportunities look like.  The stats that are always quoted are from the 1950s,stating: “the S&P 500 has fallen >4% in a long bar 55 times.  49 of those times happened beneath the 200-day MA.  As you can see, before 1950 the same truth applied, as 90% plus of all long bar days happen beneath the 200-day.

This Macro change in the context of the market dictates if one invests or trades (both long and short). If you are so indelibly programmed to think only in terms of investing, the next ten to twenty years will be a depression for you.

MarketMap’s primary cycle chart suggests the next meaningful low,

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 6, 2022

Nature of a Bear Market, Panics, Long Bar Days

October gets a bad rap for being the jynx month for the stock market. When in reality some of the best buying opportunities happen in that month.

The problem with that statement, while in general very true, is everyone is looking for a buying opportunity in October (like they say “leave in May and come back for Halloween treats.”) Thanks to one of the Contrary Thinker’s traders who pointed out NDR’s chart shown here, you can see the seasonality. The content provider sharing this chart was in the most recent past posting bullish research from his various sources. But the point is to consider the source and their axe to grind and read, read, read to get a good sense of herd mentality.

What the stock pickers are saying for example, with their strong stock buys is a retreat to buy “Qualcomm: Wait For Another Bottom In September.”  Because now out of the blue they all believe that most of the time September sucks, they were in denial until now. On the other hand, cynics will say what happened to the all-time high in Ned’s chart? It shows an ATH in August, that did not happen hence there is something wrong or they will see the exceptions line 2015,17, and 18 among others, and stay with the market programming of BTFD now.

Be that as it may the suggestion of the one-year chart – while much different from CT’s MarketMap™-2022 does capture the I-T outlook being predicted by Contrary Thinker and fits MarketMap™ 2022. 

Furthermore, for September to suck in the majority there has to be a high pivot of some proportions in July/August.

In my experience that is the reality for the vast majority of years with few exceptions, especially exceptions during low volatility bull markets.  But let’s take a look at a few stats because the secular nature of the market has changed, which has lots to do with cycles. I will just say 20 years on the bull and 20 years off the bull.

The best example for those of us “young at heart” is the twenty years of the bull market from 1949 to 1966-69, when the Dow hit 1000 for the first time. That double top was followed by a traders market for twenty years (17 years) with the breakout in 1982. See Gallery charts #1 and #2 below.

For the “Greatest  Generation***”  the high at 300 for the Dow on September 4, 1929, was at the end of a twenty-year bull market that started from the panic low in 1907.  The 1929 top was followed by a twenty years trader’s market – have a look at chart #3 in the Gallery.  The big takeaway here is the fear of a bear market is only for those who are long only and do not understand trading or how to “time” entry and exit.

While everyone and I do mean everyone sees the high on 9/4/1929 not being exceeded again until 1954 as being the worse of the worse bear markets to the extent they see it as an aberration and do not put the data into their analysis. Or they see it as one big bear market aka downtrend and too volatility to be seen as anything else.  But they are missing the great trading markets – both up and down – until the post-WWII “secular” bull market began in 1949. In 1950 the market become “superhuman” and no need to consider the past data of the pre-moderns.

See chart #3 in the Gallery, showing clearly, rallies of 52%, 10%, 27%, 31%, 40%, and 91% without even considering the bull market of 1934-37 of 127%. More on this in MarketMap™ Special Issue (see below.)

How many great trader’s names came out of this period of the 1920s to the outbreak of the war, to name a few: Gann, Livermore, and Wyckoff, and even today’s greats are known for their short selling and trading capabilities like Soros, Rogers, and Druckenmiller.

Ok sure we all can’t be great, but we can pursue that excellence, yes!

Want continued historical and advanced technical analysis, subscribe here to the best prices for a professional network.

Just want trade ideas and access to the “Volatility Reports private group, yes. Get the TradeEchange app and subscribe here. The app is free the trade ideas are $10/month for complete access and a small incentive fee on winners only, which exceeds a percent return threshold.

So, the primary crashes in October that cause fear – as everyone knows – are 1929 and 1987. But that should not be the case, as mentioned above. What great opportunities, two opportunities. What gives? Is it some sense of false sympathy some investors feel about profiting from someone else’s losses?  Did you know that J Edgar Hover hated the Kennedy family because he thought old papa Joe was anti-American for making a fortune selling short the 29  through 1932 market?

Without short sellers, who would be there to buy when it all looks like the end of the world?

MarketMap™ Issue #20 and Special Issue “Nature of…” Member access required

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!
Verified by MonsterInsights