December 21, 2022
The facts have been ignored since 11/6/2016 and the market screaming to be released from the financial and volatility repression became clear from the peak 1/23/2018. From that point to today, traders have played nothing but long volatilioty vhencials and out performed the S&P by a wide margin. Are you ready for 2023, All Contrary Thinker wants is to back investors, managers and traders to reach their best.
December 10, 2022
Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks are written by the staff of our weekly Kiplinger Letter and are unavailable elsewhere. Click here for a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or for more information. Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered investors both good news and bad news at his press conference on Nov. 2. The Fed’s policy statement included new language that it would consider the effects on the economy of previous rate […]
The Long Bonds
Before you get into the video on the long-term outlook for bonds and how to use the new excel worksheet for cycles, here is a short-term update I started in the group. If you are a visitor and have signed up on the TradeExchange app, let me know. In that regard, they are in the process of updating my UI and dashboard, make sure I know so you lock in your spot here in the group.
Unless you tell others that Contrary Thinker can make good calls, I have to continue to point them out. At the end of 2018, I warned the boys from Boston, the capital of the mutual fund factories, that the so-called “bulletproof” portfolio (60/40) would come to an end with the same kind of “hyper-correlation” seen in 2008.
Well after the first six months of 2022 all they are doing now is belly-aching about the 60/40 demise. Well, that is all well and good but in this industry, it is always about “what have you done for me lately? The updated chart featured here should help.
For equity players, it demonstrates how the bonds are leading the downturn. There are other leading markets, but this one has a broad economic impact. with that in mind, CT’s featured chart demonstrates the way the bond market speaks to you, once you understand volatility. Here I will point out how rule#3 preceded COTs by a day or two at the August high and the October. TE#3 is the definition of a low-energy trend that is due for a change. The trend lower walked the smoothed BB lower on the middle TE#3 with the help of an intervening TE#4 supporting the trend.
On Friday the decline in the 30-year futures was a failure, a reversal, and an S-T sell signal. With the TE#2 behind it, a move to 124 should unfold. That corrected the panic buying, retraces 62% of the counter-trend thus far, and moves below the smooth BB, which is an oversold signal.
Dates are highlighted in this chart that can be used if you plan to use the excel cycle worksheet.
Enjoy the 15-minute video, the other five are on the way.
December 9, 2022
LordHenriVoton The CPI report for November is due out on Tuesday, December 13, just one day before next week’s FOMC meeting. Expectations show the y/y rate dropping to 7.3% from last month’s surprise reading of 7.7%. Meanwhile, Core CPI is forecast to remain sticky, rising by 6.1% year-over-year versus last month’s reading of 6.3%. It would be the fourth month in a row that core CPI was above 6%. […]
“They all go together when they go”
Everyone will be focused on the CPI number and actions by the Fed. As a hard and fast rule it is not the news that matters, it is the market’s reaction to the news that is telling. For example, as the bear market becomes more widely acknowledged, more good news is ignored and bad news is exaggerated.
Also, highly anticipated news is used by day and floor traders to run stops with a long bar event. Therefore going into such an event from a tactical point of view, regarding positions longer than a day following a trend, stops are pulled or widened out, because the trend will be your friend. And that trend is down and gaining momentum.
This featured chart of the MSCI ACWI Index, MSCI’s flagship global equity index, helps make the bearish case and points to what to look for that will build confidence for the bearish case.
This ETF is designed to represent the performance of the full opportunity set of large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 24 emerging markets.
A number of things are clear from both the weekly and daily charts of the world composite. The context of the market is trend ready. That trend is down on an S-T basis as seen in the right-hand window, the breakdown of the channel, our Alpha Trend MA has crossed under, a sell signal, and the market failed to hold the S-T support zone. From an I-T basis, the dot on a close weekly chart is plotted with one of our Vidya MA versions. A close this week below 86.27 would likely close the door on any bullish arguments.
The video below covers the use of the cycle spreadsheet when applied to the S&P and the Dow. Along with that expo, I cover the outlook for the market from now into the early part of 2023.
As always your feedback, questions, or issues are welcomed.
December 5, 2022
Contrary Thinker Stock Watch
Arlo Technologies is an American company that makes wireless surveillance cameras. Prior to an initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2018, Arlo was a brand of such products by Netgear, which retained majority control after the IPO.
CHPT ChargePoint Holdings Inc ChargePoint is an American electric vehicle infrastructure company based in Campbell, California. ChargePoint operates the largest online network of independently owned EV charging stations operating in 14 countries and makes the technology used in it.
COMB seeks to deliver a broad, diversified basket of commodities in an actively managed structure. … Utilizing a common structure in the commodity space, the fund’s futures exposure is held in a Cayman Islands subsidiary while the collateral is actively managed with investments in short-term US fixed income securities.
CTI BioPharma focuses on the acquisition, development and commercialization of therapies for blood-related cancers that offer unique benefits to patients.CTI develops novel therapies for patients with rare blood-related cancers by uncovering the underlying scientific drivers of their disease.
EVGO EVgo is an electric vehicle DC fast charging station network in the United States, with more than 850 charging locations as of August 2022
GRU provides exposure to the following grains: corn, wheat, soybeans, and soybean meal. The composition is determined annually and is announced in the fourth quarter of the current year. The Index Administrator selects commodities primarily on the liquidity and the value of the global production. Each component is rolled into the next available contract month in advance of the month in which expiration of the contract occurs. Although GRU is marketed under Elements brand, the ETN comes with credit risk tied to the Swedish Export Credit Corp.
Nokia Corporation is a Finnish multinational telecommunications, information technology, and consumer electronics corporation, established in 1865. Nokia’s main headquarters are in Espoo, Finland, in the greater Helsinki metropolitan area, but the company’s actual roots are in the Tampere region of Pirkanmaa.
LM Ericsson, commonly known as Ericsson, is a Swedish multinational networking and telecommunications company headquartered in Stockholm
Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Talon Metals Corp. is a British Virgin Islands-based mineral exploration company Nickel Copper Cobalt Talon Metals Corp. is a TSX-listed base metals company in a joint venture with Rio Tinto on the high-grade tamarack nickel, copper, and cobalt projects located in the State of Minnesota, the United States. The Company focuses on exploration and mine management team. Talon Metals produces nickel within the United States for use in batteries in electric vehicles.
ZS is a management consulting and technology firm focused on transforming global healthcare and beyond. We leverage our leading-edge analytics, plus the power of data, science and products to help our clients make more intelligent decisions, deliver innovative solutions and improve outcomes for all.