Better Strategy Selection

Volatility Reports Gives you Context

"Rather be right and alone than wrong and in good company"

Analytic Services for Capital Managers, CFPs,

Market Analyst and RIAs

The V-Report relates clearly and concisely the complexities of the market so you can better understand and provide client presentations with confidence. Risk and opportunity analysis are based on state of the art Technical Event Modeling.

Since we started the work back in 2014, only a few breakthroughs have been accomplished by others along with ours.

In 2016 some antidotal research was done that intimated a relationship with low VIX index leading to a spike, but nothing conclusive. There is one group who understand the vital concept of volatility as a preceding background, but since their white paper, all is quiet as they manage money.

The idea was sparked by a previous CTA client but was beating around the margins with the right idea in mind, who ended up buying the code, who is doing well. plus ten family capital managers who became equity partners who own the open code and strategies that use it.

Point is, Contrary Thinker is not interested in volumes of new customers, rather I am looking for a quality professional to work with just not generally but provide for their particular needs and provide any education called for.

Systems Trading is indifferent to a direction, its the market dynamics that matter.

Put volatility measurement is “direction neutral,” which is something the old school does not understand, yet. Of course, when VX spikes it is normally associated with a stock market decline because stocks fall faster than they advance. Yet the fact still remains that both hyperinflation and deflation will cause the “so-called” fear index to spike, leaving the manager unsure of directional call plus an inferior risk and opportunity management.  Look at the panic buying after the 2016 election, with the FOMO right into the January 2018 peak, as a perfect example.

The model I created tells me when the market’s background is compressed like a spring and ready for a run. All the manager has to do is show up and execute a trend following or a breakout strategy to take him into the position. The same model tells us when the swing is climatic or old and feeble, wherein both cases ready for a change.

Old School  Technical Analyst only knows one speed.

The old school puts direction first. Because 70%-80% of the direction of a stock is due to the market’s direction, hence many analysts want to determine the market’s direction before anything else. They do this with some nouveau sounding quant risk model incorporating breadth, momentum & dollar flow metrics.
The problem remains, it does not address the size of the opportunity, the amount of risk, or a preferred strategy, all of which can be determined without surmising the direction of the trend.

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Context is everything, the prime indicator of opportunity and risk

An axiom is the starting point of reasoning. It is a premise so evident it has to be accepted as true without controversy. First principle thinking is what Elon Musk believes is the basis of his success. Words have a definition but they have no meaning unless you put them into context, the same applies to risk management.

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