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    CT Journals

    Jack Cahn

August 22, 2021

What Happens to Afghanistan’s Gold Reserves?

What Happens to Afghanistan’s Gold Reserves?

The Taliban captured Kabul on August 15 and gained access to the headquarters, main vault, and cash reserves of Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB), which is the country’s central bank. The country’s central bank had an estimated value of $10 billion. This has prompted early fears that Afghanistan’s new rulers could seize the money for themselves. Unfortunately for the Taliban, the bank’s cash reserves—consisting of hard currency, gold, and a […]

October 24, 2020

“You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes” Australian Broadcasting Corporation

The new Borat film will be released on Friday on Amazon. (IMDB) Rudy Giuliani has defended himself after being shown in a compromising position in a hotel room with a young actress pretending to be a television journalist in Sacha Baron Cohen’s latest mockumentary. The scene in the new Borat sequel, shot in a New York hotel room in July, includes a moment when Mr Giuliani is seen lying […]

[…,] tucking in his shirt with his hand down his pants with the young woman nearby.

Mr Giuliani, who is US President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, went to the hotel room thinking he was being interviewed about the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response.

The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras.

The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras.

Mr Giuliani then asks for her phone number and address. He lies back on the bed to tuck in his shirt and has his hands in his pants when Baron Cohen rushes in wearing an outlandish outfit.

October 17, 2020

Chris Christie says he was given ‘a false sense of security’ at the White House after testing positive for coronavirus

Always consider the source. The Trump Admin is nothing more than a power play to create truth from a lie.

Mr Christie is one of several Trump allies to test positive for coronavirus in recent weeks. (AP: Julio Cortez) Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie says he was given “a false sense of security” that the people he was interacting with at the White House had been tested for the coronavirus. “It was a mistake,” Mr Christie told ABC’s Good Morning America in an interview where he detailed his […]

July 14, 2020

Volatility Report 7/14/20

“Give me freedom or give me death against King George III, not Covid19”

A few weeks ago in Volatility Reports, I pointed out one alternative of the current rally’s change back to a bear trend. I pointed to the “1973-74 parallel. On that basis, “the current rally would take four to five months off the March 23, 2020 low before a dull and slow bear market took hold making new lows in 2021.” That timing for that peak takes the market into a July or August peak.

Volatility Report 7/14/20

The other alternative and the desire of many to get it over quickly puts the market early in the 1929 or 1987 crash, the first 62% retrace the first S-T leg down.

Given the fast recovery – the wishful thinking – of normal circumstances in the face of a pandemic and some in leadership pushing the libertarian ideal of “give me freedom or give me death.” So reopen fast and get back to work was their mantra. The problem is that we were fighting to be a nation, not fighting a pandemic.

The low cycle expected around the 4th to the 7th was a non-event, the cycle inverted, as previously noted. The cycles for long bar days have some potential this week. In other words, from the open to the close the day range can be greater than 4%. These are the types of days we lay in wait for, as low risk and better than 4 to 1 opportunity.

However, these dates jump out of the history books for long bar decline days, from July 20 through August 3, it should be hard down. These particular days are anniversary dates of previous long bar selloffs: July 19, 21, 26, and 30. As long as traders are on the front foot, it does not matter which day(s) hit, but the period from July 27 through August 3, should be the period of the highest rate of decline.

There are a number of things that need to start lining up to put Volatility into our bearish strategies, which is a futures short selling scalping system. Monday’s UpThrust – head-fake or failed breakout- was a beginning. Our featured chart here shows the typical set up for this distribution pattern.

Similar to the above model, the point on the mini S&P chart below wave (2) was the climactic high followed by the distribution range. The rallies to the peak of wave “a” is the phase “B” in the Wyckoff model; and the rally and intraday reversal is the phase “C.” That suggests the range lows should fall today, with possible testing pull back to the low end of the range. That puts the S&P mini futures below 3,000. The Dow has a similar chart pattern.

The important intermediate-term volatility model is set up to support a longer-term trend. Excluding the Nasdaq and its futures are ready for a trend, a dynamic forceful one-way move. Once it begins there should be little in pullbacks or whip-saws. The Nasdaq is a different story and not bullish, but I will take it up in a second VR today. Plus the newsletter via email that covers our proprietary volatility model

Here is the S-T chart on the ES, the price levels in red, in the data window, are the S-T breakdown levels that should accelerate the decline, once broken. If you have short or bear strategies, this would be your signal. Contrary Thinker members can use this break, but there are more details in the next two VR’s coming out today.

Contrary Thinking begins here. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2018

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options.

June 1, 2020

Volatility Reports Bitcoin a Risk Asset

Digital Assets the Inflation Hedge Assumption

The case is made for these “man-made” electronic mediums of exchange, that instead of owning shares of a company or a dollar bill, your invest your money – USD – as a store of value and to be used to buy goods and services.  The idea is to move your money from fiat currencies to these “coins” for protection.  The bulls list the following:

  • The Federal Reserve is vastly expanding the monetary base.
  • Like gold and other precious metals, Bitcoin and other digital assets should benefit from exploding money supply.
  • Goldman Sachs is holding a conference on crisis, Bitcoin, and inflation.
  • And it’s not just Bitcoin, other top coins look set to outperform.

The last point is very true. there is a burgeoning new industry manufacturing blockchain project/network for its computerized system of bookkeeping that is “fraud-proof.”  That is fine, but there is no control of the supply because every computer hack wants to be the next inventor of the next unique blockchain to use to buy and sell certain products and services.

So they have a supply issue plus they do not have the “full faith and taxing power” backing up this “digital assets.”

Like Gold back in the late 70s and early 80’s the boom and bust will take a decade of base building before it has its next leg up.

If you recall when you first heard about the Bitcoin, before the CME brought the futures markets into play, there were maybe two or three other competitors of BTC. Today there are many, here is a list with market caps:

  • Bitcoin: $163 billion
    Ethereum: $23 billion
    Litecoin: $2.8 billion
    EOS: $2.4 billion
    Tezos: $1.9 billion
    Cardano: $1.4 billion
    Stellar: $1.3 billion
    Monero: $1 billion
    Tron: $968 million
    Ethereum Classic: $782 million
    Neo: $695 million
    Dash: $695 million
    IOTA (MIOTA-USD): $540 million
    Cosmos: (ATOM-USD): $482 million
    Zcash: $420 million
    VeChain (VET-USD): $267 million
    DigiByte (DGB-USD): $249 million

What the fundamentalist needs to do is figure out which are overvalued or undervalued relative to their future functionality, capability, and market share potential.

What the charts reveal is a collapse when the regime change first hit the equity markets in early 2018. A decline BTC has not recovered from the smash in the face of new highs two years later by the Dow and the Nasdaq if you are looking at nominal prices only.  But, in money terms, it lost $16,000 per coin in less than a year, an 84% decline.

 

 

The recovery thus far looks typical to every other boom-bust market observers have witnessed throughout history.  The 62% retracement is common, it is not a magical number that is expected to be touched or if exceeded precludes a scenario. But if you look at Gold, Crude, and shares in 1929, you will see the fractal.  These two weekly charts tell a story of c bear market rally with one last rally to $1,500/coin to finish off the counter-trend. In EWT terms finish wave two going into the meet of the decline, wave three, which will take out the lows at [A].

The tension underneath the market is high and will support a valid trend once the direction is determined. In other words the weekly chart has TEM on a new rule #2, a background that sets up to exit the trading range and trend for a period certain.

 

The Short Term – Daily chart has the same set up by the Technical Event Model. This close up look shows the coiling up in the bar chart that should lead to the break to the $10,500 level.  A terminal move and a head fake from our side of the desk.

Short only hedge intra-day scalper is engaged since May 27. No trades thus far.  It made 12k in May, but that is not our prime mover. The process laid out above is.  This is similar to H.M. Gartley’s entry technique, except we engage a trend following system that trades one way from point “C” where a normal dis-engage is if point “A” is taken out.

However, in the 1930s they would go short at point “C” and risk to point “A,” again a low risk. However, today, Contrary Thinkers, have a trend following system that only gets hit if the weather turns choppy, which is even lower risk. It should not whip-saw conditions after a new TE#2. Once the market breaks in will carry over intra-day; and once a long term trend is established the trend should be forceful every day.

TEM is direction neutral and the bulls could be right, if you have a breakout system that trades long or a trend following systems, you can run with the bulls. I will accept it if the break higher of $1,000 occurs, I do not see risk to the strategy unless the market turns into a windmill.

You don’t need TradeStation to run our systems, let me know what you use from NinjaTrader to Microsoft excel, etc.

Featured Image Header Source

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.
Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

 

 

February 27, 2020

Volatility Reports 02.27.20

No sign of a low, only the chance of a pause

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February 27, 2020

Crude Oil from dinosaurs into an industrial dinosaur

As Oil Nears $50 Again, is Now the Time to Buy?“What I find peculiar, what contrary thinker finds peculiar, is how analyst aka content providers – when in doubt themselves lead with a subject line that goes like this, “As Oil Nears $50 Again, Is Now the Time to Buy?”

Read More

January 22, 2020

The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness

All measures of market sentiment are at highs or extreme highs, from put/call ratios, to CNN’s greed index, you name it. The outside worlds focus for this outright giddy disposition and  talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values focuses on the following four elements:

First, the US and China are likely to reach a “phase-one” deal that would at least temporarily halt any further escalation of their trade and technology war.”

“Second, despite the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s election on December 12, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has at least managed to secure a tentative “soft Brexit” deal with the EU, and the chances of the UK crashing out of the bloc have been substantially reduced.”

“Third, the US has demonstrated restraint in the face of Iranian provocations in the Middle East, with President Donald Trump realizing that surgical strikes against that country could result in a full-scale war and severe oil-price spike.”

“And, lastly, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other major central banks have gotten ahead of geopolitical headwinds by easing monetary policies. With central banks once again coming to the rescue, even minor “green shoots” – such as the stabilization of the US manufacturing sector and the resilience of services and consumption growth – have been taken as a harbinger of renewed global expansion.”

However Contrary Thinker feels, if there is an outside world that impacts the mood of the market, the one factor that brings the greatest amount of uncertainty and the most difficult to quantify is  this guy, “Donald John Trump.” He is a force of nature that brings the greatest amount of unknowable effects.

In a few words the “deconstruction of the administrative state;” destroying the international order that the US and its allies created after WWII;” “the provoking rather than supporting US Asian allies, such as Japan and South Korea;” the impeachment process and trial that will lead to bipartisan warfare, and providing the ROOSEVELTIAN Democrats running for their party nomination a policy platform that financial markets find unnerving plus a regime change on the first Tuesday of November 2020.

The extreme bullish sentiment pointed most market observers are aware of will be hard to change mentality even when there is a 10% to 20% correction. The majority of analyst I read and hear in the media say the extreme bullish outlook will be toned down with only a mild correction.

To the contrary, the linier mentality is here to stay providing the needed liquidity for profit taking and the mind-set will be buying dips throughout 2020, until some type of climatic low.

These headlines highlight what not to expect. Market (price) based models foreshadow a greater than average bear market over the average time span of historical bear markets.

Contrary Thinking Starts Here

Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker Since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020
Capital Managers and Professional Investment Advisors visit: www.ContraryThinker.com
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

— Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

December 18, 2019

“Extreme Greed” Trigger’d – Short-Squeeze Lifts Stocks To New Record Highs

 

In the Volatility Report 12.11.2019, I pointed out that the USD was looking bearish – at least for the Intermediate-Term. ” The Hot Money for the last few years has been in the buck. From the 2011 low, a new very long term-bull market is kicked-off. That, however, does not preclude an I-T correction back to test the low of early 2018.”   I also tie a weaker dollar to a leading suggestion that stocks are going into a bear market. 

This news was coincidental at the secondary top highlighted in the chart used here. “Powell says the Fed is ‘strongly committed’ to 2% inflation goal, a sign that rates are likely to hold steady.”

“Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says the central bank is “strongly committed” to maintaining 2% inflation. The remarks are further indication that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon. Powell also draws attention to low labor force participation and middling wage gains.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/powell-says-the-fed-is-strongly-committed-to-meeting-its-inflation-goal.html

“The only way is up…” China continued to surge after the ‘deal… Source: Bloomberg Mixed picture in Europe today with the FTSE tumbling along with DAX as Italy managed gains… Source: Bloomberg US markets were broadly higher led by Small Caps… Since “Phase One” of the US-China deal was supposedly complete on Oct 11th, can you spot the odd one out? Source: Bloomberg All of which began when The […]

\US President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters that US exports to China will double under the agreement and that he expects a 0.5 per cent boost to US economic growth in 2020 from the new and updated trade deals signed by the administration.

Click here to view original web page at Wall St and global share markets climb on US-China trade deal progress

 

\The U.S. has not had legitimate market in 12 years. What we call “the market” is a crude simulation that obscures the Federal Reserve’s Socialism for the Super-Wealthy: the vast majority of the income-producing assets are owned by the super-wealthy, and so all the Fed money-printing that’s been needed to inflate asset bubbles to new extremes only serves to further enrich the already-super-wealthy.

 

\

There’s more: add in the incremental liquidity from the expanded overnight repo of about $50 billion and another $60 billion in T-Bill purchases, and the Fed will inject a total of just shy of $500 billion in the next 30 days. This also means that by Jan 14, the Fed’s balance sheet would have grown by a cumulative $365BN in “temporary” repos, and together with the expanded overnight repos, and the $60BN in monthly TBill purchases, and by mid-January, the Fed’s balance sheet, currently at $4.066 trillion, will surpass its all time high of $4.5 trillion!

\

Something strange is going on: at the same time that central banks are injecting $100 billion each month in electronic money to crush volatility and ramp markets, a similar amount in hard physical currency and precious metals is literally disappearing.

Take gold: as we reported last week, it was none other than Goldman Sachs which recently laid out the case for gold, saying “gold’s strategic case still strong.” One reason for this is that the same central banks that are “full tilt” printing cash, they have also been splurging on gold, and as a result of “geopolitical uncertainty” there has been a record surge in gold demand by central banks themselves. As Goldman notes, “CBs globally have been buying gold at a very strong pace” and “2019 looks to be a record year for CB gold purchases with our target of 750 tonnes combined purchases likely to be met.”

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy. All sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND. Contrary Thinker   MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS.

 

June 10, 2019

My Alternate for a roaring 1929 style end to it all: “This Bubble’s Gonna Be A Big One… Real Big”

Last Friday, when discussing the potential consequences of what would happen if the Fed cuts rates, and why BofA believes that such an act would represent a huge risk to the market and economy, is that following the May slump, the foundations for the S&P rising to 3,000 in […]

Volatility Reports published this alternative chart on May 4, 2019.

With a change of trend date occurring now and prices advancing into them, a peak here is necessary for the 1929  style rally into the autumn to remain an alternative. and for prices to continue their May-Walk-Away.

 

 

 

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