CT Journals
Jack Cahn
November 17, 2023
MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner All Issues
Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets
Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile.
Thanks in advance for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration. Jack F. Cahn, CMT
All issues of MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner to date are located here for membership. Not a member? Well then you are here for one of two reasons.
Looking for free information. Nope, wrong place. Since 1989 my group has rarely provided anything for free. We leave that for the MASS marketers and advise you to engage when offered a bargain. OR
You witnessed the timing, power, and influence of several trades and Contrary Thinker’s analysis the basis of the trade plans. In that case you are moving forward to reach your investment and trading goals.
https://contrarythinker.com/marketmap-2023-scenario-planner-1/
November 12, 2023
MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner #19
A failed bullish scenario will be dealt with harshly
Take the following for example, “This looks like a massacre for the stock market bears. (1) Hedge Funds have increased stock short positions for 12 consecutive weeks, the longest streak in history! Data from Goldman Sachs. (2) And now we are entering November and December, the best 2-month period of the year with data going back to 1950 (3) Bear market in bonds may be over, channel break out. (4) Oil declining despite winter and ME tensions”
It is not worthy of pulling out the flawed assumptions behind each point. It is easier to say the contrarian idea is not grounded, and the remainder are postulations. Yet, this is a fine example of the working mentality inside the bastions of bullish fortune seekers. Two points here spurred by a good question. “Is the Moody’s news event the catalyst?”
Even with the high in July being a lower high, such major pivot do not need to have a clear shocking news event setting it off. Many times, they will hit on great news, like the 10/16/23 S-T high pivot.
Rather, a high turning point can be the clear and abject failure of the bullish rationale leaving the majority in the lurch. As Joe Granville would call them “Bag Holders.” The other thing to remember here is, given that bulls tend to exaggerate the good and ignore the bad, how the market reacts come the reopen Sunday and later with the day session Monday, will be the answer to the query, “is this news from Moody’s the catalyst?” A valid question in our space regarding the Elliott Wave chart shown here.
