February 7, 2024
“Make no mistake where you are- This is it – Your backs to the corner -This is it -Don’t be a fool anymore -This is it.” Kenny Logins 1979
Regarding economic or “other than market” news or events, Reuters’ provides some of the best reporting in the world. I read Reuters Morning Bid U.S with my coffee. Today’s top two paragraphs are positive, so doubtful anything in it will be the catalyst for a high pivot. its to most anti-intuitive for anyone to be calling for a top on what they had to say this morning.
To be sure, its does not pay to always be contrarian, sometimes you have to run with the heard. News can be spun in either political directions. But after prolonged trends, it does pay large dividends, and markets will peak on good news and bottom on bad as a rule. Today things look rosy, the declining VIX has been discounting the war actions to cool off, and so we may have a new give peace a chance narrative for a while.
Regarding scenario for the year to be clear from Market Mapping:
January 30, 2024
Clarity through the big picture of the traditional four year cycle
The cycle watcher’s four-year cycle is rushed for time from the Covid low in March of 2020. Most cycle watchers have a wider variance, but we use 10% or four months, which puts July/August of 2024 on the outside of the four-year cycle for a low. This outlook also fits the model as outlined issue #4 and in what follows.
Always from the basics: Time analysis does not project price targets or does it provide risk and opportunity assessments.
Time does what price cannot do alone and vice versa. Cycles no matter how we compile them only give us expected direction and the date when the direction is about to change, not price levels or risk/opportunity assessment.
“Volatility Reports” considers price. Price when measured by degrees of volatility suggest levels of risk and opportunity. Today all the US major averages
January 29, 2024
Volatility Report’s Position and Outlook
- Bullish 2024 on US Dollar
- Bullish 2024 on interest rates
- Bullish 2024 on inflation from wages to consumer prices
- Bullish 2024 esp. second half of year on most forms of energy
- Bullish on freight and shipping rates
- CHANGE S-T bearish, I-T Bullish into mid-2024 on Bitcoin, and Bitwise index.
- Bearish 2024 on most FX pairs of major US trading partners
- CHANGE to S-T Bearish on Dow and S&P in late Winter, I-T bullish into mid- 2024, potential crash from late Summer peak
- Neutral on Gold, Silvers and non commercial metals.
- Economy (backstory) there was no soft-landing, economic growth has proceeded unabated.
Contrary Thinker caught the break last week in the oil sector
The major cycle that acted as the catalyst to the AI binge has made it full cycle back to where it started as of January 21, 2024; and should stay in a correction until until November 19, 2024. With intermittent counter trend rallies along the way. From here it should unravel its access into a bottom from early Sept to mid-November of this year. (See this weeks issue of MarketMap.)
Last year I mentioned one new theme that was overlooked until it’s recently hit the airways of NPR. That is the new oil company merger trends that are growing. Specifically, the buying up of the smaller efficient oil fracking companies in the Anadarko. Bullish flow of funds has always been a place to roll. The Astro cycles continue to favor this merger/acquisition cycle, which should forge ahead until late May 2024.
In fact as the updated chart shows here the pull of a favored transit for oil based inflation should pull prices higher into mid July. You’ll will see in Market Map that most if not all the stand alone maps have a inflationary pull into that time period from June into Mid-August.
The economy’s industry sees continued reliance of oil and gas. CT’s can see global tensions in the mid-easy helping put oil prices higher. MarketMap™ 2024 suggest a short-term spike in @CL. more to follow…
Head and shoulder’s bottom in place followed by a bullish breakout. TEM’s red lines show the panic lows, which were tested a few days later and held. Also, a bullish sign. The Volatility background supports a persistent trend, will be looking for a higher rate of change trade next week.
The shared MarketMap shows a s-t rally into late this week, early next. A pull back into the 15th +/- 2 days should set up another long trade. Besides being a Fib sq./root projection, the same Astro-cycle I am following has an exact aspect on the 13th nesting with the Fib change of trend date. A pull market into that second full week of February will be looked at for TEM setup and price support (levels and momentum.) Note the calendar cycle on the daily bar chart above, its cycle low should also correspond with that time period.
Bitcoin the only game in town
BITO 1/26/ put strike 21.50 for 1.14 or better (ob.) and got out on the lower gap open on the 22nd for better than a double. The early year scenario may of BTC support the idea of another decline into a COT late this week or early next. As a risk market leader, that fits the expectations of the long awaited for correction in Dow& Co is about to begin as well.
From a scenario and trading point of view, I suspect a long (bullish) play coming out of the next low as outlined above. It is this market’s ability to make new highs. There are a number of good reasons for that, which I cover on the monthly charts featured in Market Map
The scenario map has served really bullish astro-events timed at the same pivot on the map seen here. For new members, it is the direction of the trend and the date of the changes that are the forecast, not the price levels.
For example, after the early Mach low, any rally that follows does not need to break to new highs just like the rally I expect into mid-February.
Always keep in my that price and time are considered spectrally. In the next chart I use ratio projections for the targets of the forecasted trends.
The bar charts of the underlying future’s contract (BTC) – both intraday and daily bar on the right show an impulse wave, the start of a larger trend in the same direction. The 60-minute chart shows the five-wave structure, the ending diagonal triangle low followed by the textbook spike recovery of 38% ending within the high to low range of 4 and 3, respectively. The 20% decline broke the lower Bollinger band- among others- which is a system’s traders basic sell signal.
The current pullback is providing an opportunity to play the long-put game again on BITO, a bullish ETF. You’ll need to tune into Contrary Thinker’s Delta Options community to get the latest.
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