June 11, 2019
At the end of May, the old guard was crowing about the completion of a head and shoulders top. Cramer and associates plus a chorus of perm-a-bulls started to become bearish when the market gapped lower. I pointed out that traditional TA could not make that call with a higher chance of success than 50/50 because the break would not get carry over without consideration of the context behind it.
I pointed out that the short-term background had the market’s May decline labeled old, laboring and due for a change on June 2, and the breakdown of the head and shoulders was a trap. And now the man who would be a guru says the market is frothy. Well, he is right, but he is still a perm-a-bull. Here is what he was quoted as saying:
“…watch now CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday it’s a tough time to put new money into stocks, even as the market posts gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 78 points Monday, the S&P 500 expanded 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite moved up 1.05%. Cramer said investors […] Click here to view original web page at Cramer: Beware of froth — ‘it may be too late to put new money to work’
Well, there may be a leak in my membership, which is talking to Jim’s TA, that can be fixed. However, all of the primary stock market averages on Monday hit panic buying extreme. My Technical Event Model reached a rule #1, an extreme that calls for a change of trend because of emotional buyers are easy to flip.
The chart here also reveals that time cycle flipped on the Dow ( and others ) to the short side at the low – the odds and other risk/reward stats for this 100% time and price based strategy is on the left-hand side, and there is no money management used. It’s purely technical.
With the markets in a state of panic buying, aka FOMO, and cycles pointing lower into the end of June, ContraryThinker believes that Cramer is right that the market is frothy. However, it’s just not the short term, it is also the Intermediate and Long Term context that supports the downtrend from late April.
June 10, 2019
Last Friday, when discussing the potential consequences of what would happen if the Fed cuts rates, and why BofA believes that such an act would represent a huge risk to the market and economy, is that following the May slump, the foundations for the S&P rising to 3,000 in […]
Volatility Reports published this alternative chart on May 4, 2019.
With a change of trend date occurring now and prices advancing into them, a peak here is necessary for the 1929 style rally into the autumn to remain an alternative. and for prices to continue their May-Walk-Away.
May 30, 2019
May 21, 2019
May 7, 2019
April 8, 2019
March 29, 2019
The best sources of ideas that should be incorporated into everyman’s investment and the trading plan comes and goes like adolescence fades. They ebb and flow along with the long very social-cultural mentality behind the markets.
The Art of War by Sun Tzu
THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD and one referenced by Vladimir Putin regarding his annexation of Chiema. When he accomplished his goals without a gun being fired.
The study of military strategy finds identical usage in poker and trading. The lowest risk / highest reward approach in strategies and tactics used in poker and trading is not any different than the general’s approach to war. The best of the best manage their capital as if it was a battle, one that promotes the idea of only funding positions that have a high probability of winning, and once into that position to leverage up maximize profits.
Here is a concept used on the battlefield and made successful by King Frederick II of Prussia. It is called the “oblique order attack.”
The oblique order is a military tactic whereby an attacking army focuses its forces to attack a single enemy flank. However, the general concentrates the majority of his strength on one flank and uses the remainder of his troops to fix the enemy line.
The strength flank would then create an angled or oblique formation, and attack the strongest flank of the enemy with a concentration of force.
Once the critical flank was secure, the commander would wheel the troops 90 degrees to roll up the enemy line -this is what I call getting all your strategy’s ducks – setups – in a row – and the angled formation would continue to advance to crush the opponent.
The echelons not involved in the assault served the important function of holding the rival army in check by remaining defensive and threatening, thus offering protection to the attacking echelons by keeping the enemy force occupied.
It’s how and when investors and traders engage their systems based on risk and reward forecast. The majority don’t get this for many reasons, one is the transactional indoctrination they get from all sources.
So while building systems on robust methods are the preferred approach, the strategies all still have great periods and drawdowns; and these periods can be predicted. It sure reduces activity hence gets little to no attention by the industry.
In my mind, this is one of the best methods of controlling risk and maximizing profits. So in this battle for investment survival, “never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake.” Let them continue and sit and wait patiently for you low-risk high reward opportunity.
In poker, you let them rise into your superior hand. If you are in 100% or max percent cash allowed by policy since the double peaks of 2018 you have lost very little based on the 200 day average prices are only 2.7% above it and you are well positioned to re-enter at prices 30% lower and you are able to use long Volatility systems to add to your returns over the next two years.
more on systems and tactics in the next few blog post.
March 23, 2019
March 22, 2019
Everyone in the Twittersphere is jumping up and down about the Bullish triangle set up in the precious metal along with speculation on how it breaks out will negatively impact the yen and the dollar, as gold is the safe harbor for a famous stock market crash.