July 16, 2021
Why Join Contrary Thinker? Because Chance favors the Collective Mind.
On three different media!
It is just not about the services. The two market analysis newsletters meld into a system and actionable ideas. It’s just not about getting ETF and Option trade ideas on your phone. Plus, it is singularly just not about systems and indicators available on TradeStation’s TradingApp Store. It is about Collaboration in our private group in the space LinkedIn provides me.
Back in 2003, I read a magazine article, “Why Collaborate?” It pointed to the trend of sharing as nothing more than a meaningless fade and something only used for sales/marketing, aka social media marketing (SMM).
Today, collaboration remains widely doubted when it comes to trading, investing, and risk management. The aftereffects of WFC linger. Plus, the “Great Bull Market” has created a cottage industry of “do it yourself” types with little or professional know-how, all caught up in the work-a-holic “hustle culture of social media. Where the trend bails them out of mistakes, at least it did until twice in 2018 and 2020 in a big way. The decade of market timing has started, only a few have noticed.
The point is being open to “teamwork” because it is essential. The internet has broken down the bastions of Wall Street to allow groups outside the boardrooms to develop ideas and methods that can compete with the big boys.
All of that is simply anecdotal evidence to support the notion that collaboration is worth investing your time in. The fact that so many new software apps and add-ons are coming to market that support collaboration spaces and direct messaging – confirms this notion. But to assume that it is all available for free via the public stream of Twitter or Facebook is naïve, which will become clearer as the market becomes more dominated by experienced market timers.
While it is a historical FACT that collaborating in teams, groups, guilds, associations, or corporations historically and today spearheads our capitalistic system, cynicism remains.
Nothing has been invented without group collaboration independent of the abstract model of capitalism of Ann Rand’s Fountain Head.
So, the question is: HOW do you want to leverage your time? And WHO do you want to collaborate with?
If you are a professional advisor (RIA) or a private capital manager, a family capital manager, or a trader, Contrary Thinker provides you with a professional private group to participate in.
Thus, providing you with just not static and isolated ideas in newsletter format or on a blog that the analyst group thinks is good for you and your people. Rather, you have access to good analysis for your people, fits your objectives, fills gaps, and assists you in leveraging your time by allowing you to do what you do best. How? By collaborating through feedback, questions, and request.
Thank you for visiting with us in the private space LinkedIn provides my team and me to communicate and support new friends and existing members.
Please accept this letter as a friendly reminder not to let your visitors pass run out and become a full member to Contrary Thinker today.
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Membership benefits and services
MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles.
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Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
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May 8, 2021
Charts Support the Following Summary Outlook
From early May into the end of July, volatility should spike across all markets. The composite index Contrary Thinker developed represents just not the S&P but the world index, the bonds, the metals, China, etc.
By industry standard definition, volatility is bearish or perceived risk and fear by the general marketplace.
Contrary Thinker is S-T, I-T, and L-T on the following:
Bullish on Interest Rates (lower bond prices).
Bullish on the USD, it’s more than a technical point of view backing up the dollar to move. It is based on the nation’s sense of self-preservation. If any Sovereign Nation losses control of its debt it will lose its freedom. In the face of all of the people that can only think of buying without any regard for buying power are not thinking like big money and old money here in the USA. Nor are they understanding the “full faith and taxing power of the Treasury.
Bullish on the Aussie Dollar, S-T pullback underway.
Bullish on Commodities, on a new term basis, there may be a pullback buying opportunity.
Bearish on the Euro and Pound Sterling
Bearish n the US stock markets, the Nasdaq and the Russell have already made their ATHs, along with the FANG sector and the Tech sector.
Bearish on the World Stock Index, net the USA, the Pac Rim, and Asian Emerging Marfekts have already made their ATH. The EU market is mixed with a number still a good distance off their historical highs, with little chance of making new ATHs this cycle like the FTSE, while the Dax has posted up its ATH recently.
Bearish on Gold and Silver. Late last week the bullish sentiment jumped all over the higher prices with the trope, the same old story that is repeated during bull markets and bears. The inferred breakout looks like the move that occurred in January of this year. A head fake, the market will tip its hand early this week.
Crude Oil and Carbon Energy, S-T bearish and leaving the longer-term for fresh look after the expected “hyper-correlated” downturn.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies, bearish. The first nine charts in the Galley feature how all of the markets made long-term peaks on irrational – panic – buying. The bonds are the leading example of what to expect after a FOMO peak. Regarding Bitcoin and others, they have no economic function, they serve no purpose in fiance or they do not feed people or build infrastructure. Plus, they are too volatile to be a currency for any country, and the supply is unlimited with new brands hitting the street weekly. As Buffet warned they are “risky and worthless. I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending.”
The second patch of charts features cycles both mundane (math-based) and others that are Galatic. They all suggest a trend starting this week and going into late July. Rates and the dollar up everything else down.
Click to Enlarge COT Table below for change dates and acceleration periods
November 3, 2020
“buy the rumor sell the news”, “buy the recession sell the recovery”
Did you ever wonder why traders say that? Are they merely words, hip, trending with no substance? Maybe one reason is smart money needs a liquid market to buy and sell into, respectively. Because dumb money thinks the market is the economy.
The public becomes brainwashed by the media both network and social promotion with the intuitive line of good news for the economy is good news for the market moreover the market factors in the news, the market is a discounting system. Otherwise, how can the market be explained? Well, the market is not a discounting system.
October 19, 2020
October 19, 2020 Recap
The bull markets are done, dusted, and bronzed.
Bonds: As I go to press, the bonds are testing the 174 12/ to 171 28/ I-T support zone, sitting at 174 1/. The context, the tension in the background from an I-T point of view supports that if a break occurs here of support, the next target is L-T 144-152. The tidal cycles and trends following the system are short and continue to support the downturn, as seen on the next chart in the gallery. The cycle is down, the MA crossover is down, the smooth CMB index is down, and the smoothed RSI is down.
From an Elliott Wave point of view, the secondary peak in August was the end of the I-T counter trend wave (2), which leaves the long government bonds on the brink of the best part of a trend, wave three.
Euro Dollar outlook, from a secular point of view, the very long term bull market that ensued after its creations are in a long term correction of the mistakes it was founded upon. From the Brexit to Greece and others, the theme during debt contractions is “separations,” and that does not bode well for a union of states that does not have a common language.