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    Contrary Thinker Shanghai Since 9/4/2018 to date

    February 8, 2024

February 8, 2024

Contrary Thinker Shanghai Since 9/4/2018 to date

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You know this is true about the markets:

“In a man made universe study man, not the universe. In that way you will always beat the markets”

Volatility Report September 4, 2018

 

Volatility Reports Group 2/7/24

“#hongkong #low #risk panic low in China. It’s good to hear from my investors/traders on the Pac-rim and thanks for the reminder of how well the panic index works with TEM.

CT’s bearish stance on the Shanghai Dow included the forecast for a high rate of change sell off from several months ago.

In the public domain a content provider suggested a low was in place when the chairman cut bank reserve requirements. But at that point the market did not support a min-risk low and was open to the possibility of failure.

Today the Shanghai Dow is a different story. The featured chart here tells the story of a panic low, where investors were throwing shares away at any price.

The headlines of the defensive action taken by brokers confirmed the highly charged background.

Contrary Thinkers know a negligible risk “V” low and take advantage.
Membership has heard it a few times that a trend out of a triangle is a high rate of change affair and is a terminal move, not the start of a new trend. From a price chart and volatility context and sentiment point of view investors should look for value, as that is always the first theme coming out of an important low.

From a Time, element, a COT is expected here around the world. I pointed out that the “soft aspects” outnumbered them 9 to 1 early this week and a change of trend high (COT) for the US stocks is expected. The mirror opposite is expected from the Hang Sang and Shanghai Dow, where a low and recovery are expected. Looking ahead, the primary markets of the east compared to the big markets of the west should have a negative correlation for the next few weeks if not the next few months or year.

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Volatility Reports Group1/25/24

We need a blasé indicator. TEM saw the panic high in the SPX, some cop after is ok, in fact common to see some shop.

Earlier I pointed out the lack of “fear” being shown by the market while it sold off, with a mini panic selloff in BTC and rates going higher, yet VIX was down, was now the right thing to see for a nice pro-directional sell-off.

One more day, and the bulls of 2023 are up to their old tricks, Wall Street and LaSalle Street selling premium for nice retail returns.

On major thing to add is Monday the #Shanghai Dow was down 3 to 4% on the day. The bear market in the largest economy on the Pac rim is not a good thing, while some on interviewed on CNBC think it’s bullish for the US, because they are exporting depression, lower price goods keep inflation going down in the US. You get the rest, no need to spell it out.

But it is not good, which is not an attitude problem. It is knowing what happens when there is a recession or a depression in any country and in this case the third most populist country in the world.

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China and the Emerging Markets

Volatility Reports 11/20/23

On the other end of the dial is China, which is failing in their recovery efforts thus far, that being accented by the direction and action of the Shanghai Dow and other major indices. The chart shown in the gallery shows the market breaking its long establish ascending trend line as it comes out of a bearish fourth wave triangle. This breakdown took a puase for a few days until the background could reset for more trend. The DJ China index has now signaled a TE#2, the setup for a forceful trend. The down trend should pick up ROC soon.

 

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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2024

All-inclusive analytical method: Astrological and Historical Cycles, Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional EWT, Volatility modeling, Contrarian sentiment modeling. All empirically tested with technical methods hard coded and tested for validity.

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