September 19, 2018

Dollar Doldrums to End Soon

The historical volatility context in general behind the greenback provides the essential foundation for a forceful trend.

Back in 2014 on these pages, we isolated the significant move potential of crude oil. We knew it was going to be an explosive run and all the trader had to do was trade the breakout – in either direction – and hold on.

When you look at the monthly, weekly and daily bar of crude leading into the crash in prices the Technical Event Model registered a rule #2 for all three time-horizons. On the daily chart, it went from Rule #2 to a Rule #4, which is also supportive of a trend via range expansion.

Today the TEM background for the Dollar is very similar, as you can see in the charts provided here.

Our strategies for the three different trading styles – long, intermediate and short-term – are not in gear, which is fine as the short term system will adjust of the long terms will. But it is clear from the charts our bias holing for weeks and months from here is bullish.

I am bullish and think 120 is a good target. However, let your systems take you into your position with the expectation of a forceful trend running 20 points or better.

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