October 22, 2018
It is becoming more doubtful the bell weather Fanng stocks will reverse a series of sell signals from the high pivots in September. Failures to hold new intermediate term (IT) support along with a break below classic neckline formations add to the bearish outlook. The red arrows hight light these breakdowns. Both Amazon and Google broke below I-T support and continue to trade under that level, a bearish indication.
GOOG is sitting on long-term (L-T) support (old L-T resistance) where the inability of this market to get back above this level would further the bearish outlook.
One of our favorite shorts is Netflix. Of interest in the above daily bar chart is the 100 point risk the stock has until it reaches the high side of our L-T support zone.
Once the neckline breaks the head and shoulders top targets a decline of 100 points or better. Further, our measures of rational vs. emotional buying peg all of the buying from 190 into its historical pivot as panic or FOMO motivated. As such, it will flip easily once the decline puts pressure on these traders.
These diverse methods provide price targets clustering, which adds confidence. Now, its a matter of market dynamics to provide insights into when a forceful move can be expected.
Netflix’s background or set up on a long-term basis is similar to the Dow/S&P peak in late January when it peaked on panic buying followed by a mini-crash on panic selling. With Netflix, the panic buying into June provided a pivotal high with a decline that did not lead to panic selling, at least not yet and there has been no new long-term TE. From an I-T point of view, the dynamics only mostly support a forceful trend this week and S-T the market has not worked off its panic selling.
NOVEMBER 2018 (EXPIRATION: 11/30)
My initial trading experience used only high delta puts and calls. These are deep – I mean deep – in the money options. Today it is difficult to avoid time premium, without giving up lots of liquidity – as inferred by the volume/open interest. The weekly November 337 ½ put is 5 ½ points in the money and with six weeks to work has 16.00 premium. I would look deeper and keep an eye open for any OI.
However, the potential is there with a conservative target of 264 leaving the puts 60 points in the money. The bid/offer spread is a full point; some option brokers are better than others.
It’s easy to get started, and the only thing that will keep you from quitting is your success.
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Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
A Contrary Thinker Trader Since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820
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