• Background Image

    CT Journals

    Bitcoin Currency and Forex

August 26, 2022

“Ninety Nine Cents Won’t get you into NYC…”

“…it takes a Dollar.”  The freedom dollar.

Fourteen years after the secular low, nearly everyone is stuck in the noughties and in love with the one-way traffic of 2017.  They – bulls without fear – have taken hook line and sinker the green back’s market relationships as the king of all fiat currencies will be superseded by digital tokens, gold/silver, that inflation will benefit the Euro and other currencies like the emerging market currencies as well as the world equity markets.

This mob cares little about the dollars buying power, I mean who would? Seriously, when you can invest in risk assets? Old money perhaps, smart money maybe, you think?

The various backstories are interesting. The long-term dollar bulls see the international flow of funds exiting offshore looking for economic strength in the USA relative to the weakness of the EU, China, and PacRim. More so they see Europe as ground zero for the fascist-populist revolt with an insurrection wave headed at central bank leadership.

As stated previously, to the chagrin of a few, the economy competes with the stock market for the same dollar. Today we are witnessing a real economic expansion not just a “paper chase.” The international flow of funds will favor the US and its new fiscal policy and its Regime change from a top-down to middle-out economic policy out of DC, which will sustain.

Why? Because youth will be served.

Moreover, the Euro and the EU are a confederation of countries banded by common values and objectives but separated by different languages and cultures. If you think the State systems in the USA are perplexing,  do some comparative work between Poland and Spain, Etc.

The above chart is super bullish based on the “rule of alternation,” which says in EWT that corrective patterns of the same degree have to be different. In general, in life, this rule applies in that the most recent battle will be different from the one before it. In 2007-08 the bears expected a reply of 2001-03, it was too fresh. Today the bears think in terms of the 2007-09 stock market experience, it will be different compared to that most recent history.

In the above chart, the corrections from points [1] to [2] compared to the correction from points (1) to (2) are the same, they are flat ranges. Hence the second correction must be of a lower degree setting up a massive third wave advance in a new secular bull market in the not too distant future.

So the current rally from just below 90 – from point (2) – is a short-term wave 1 that is still unfolding with a break above 110 likely. As stated and well-known among traders, a break of round numbers in virgin territory typically leads to more trends in the same direction.

The chart-window on the right shows the wave count of the dollar setting up for at least one more run to new highs in wave “v.” The chart on the left shows the market in Short-Term resistance and just below I-T resistance, the latter running from 109 to 111.10.  The rally from 105 was supported by TE#2 and has reached a new TE#3, slowing the advance down.

Rule #3 calls the trend old, low energy but persistent. While due for a change, the uptrend could persist.  The monthly and weekly chart (not shown) supports a more persistent trend.

On a short-term basis, either the market is going to “persist” through 110 into a COT due early next week or consolidate between the 104 to 109 level until TEM sets up for a more dynamic move higher, and the COT becomes low. For the FX market, the number of soft cycle changes that are due in early September suggests more rally from here into 9/3/22.

From a trading point of view, I see nothing to trade until the Dollar makes an S-T top, the USD/JPY still looks bullish as well.  The Aussie dollar may finish out an ending wedge for a nice counter-trend rally. At this point, it’s waiting to see. However, the risk markets are looking vulnerable, because that group does not like the dollar at higher levels.

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

 

 

 

 

August 7, 2022

Volatility Reports 8/8/22 Harbinger of Things to Come

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” George Soros

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
March 28, 2022

Volatility Reports 3/28/22 “The Bust”

How can something come from nothing? Or what happens when a one billion dollar industry goes bust?

The Dot.Com Industry did it, 22 1/2 years ago when that industry chased up the advertising cost on the SuperBowl broadcast to make a “brand” for themselves. All of that led to a bust.

The dot-com bubble was a rapid rise in U.S. technology stock equity valuations fueled by investments in Internet-based companies in the late 1990s. The value of equity markets grew exponentially during the dot-com bubble, with the Nasdaq rising from under 1,000 to more than 5,000 between 1995 and 2000. Today the Crypto Industry has done the same thing and worse it has produced an industry with no economic benefit and produce what they call an asset – something with value – out of thin air.

Blockchain technology is not revolutionary and disruptive except in the sense that it has taken to a whole new level the gullibility of just not the public but the professionals that have fallen in behind it. This new industry is nothing more than a meaningless marketing term representing an overhyped concept.

Unlike the smartphone and other high-tech gadgets, the world of crypto is living on a dream on the left-hand side of “the chasm.”  There are many reasons why they will call fall into the chasm. One is volatility which makes it impossible to regard Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as useful for anything other than speculation. NOT a replacement for a fiat currency as they have promoted from day one.

Besides being too changeable that the merchant would have to have such a wide bid to offer spread to cover their risk the market will not accept it until it becomes STABLE, which is not going to happen, until after the crash, when markets go flat after a dead cat bounce.

Furthermore, the big tout was limited supply vs the worldwide float of fiat currencies. Two key problems with that are the crypto factories do not have the full faith and taxing power of a government to back up their so-called coins. Plus there is no limited supply as there are opportunists every day making these things out of thin air to the extent that there are more than 10,000 cryptocurrencies in existence, and more coming every day.

All over social media and financial news, they are throwing around the idea of contrarian like it’s so easy to be one, while the bullish following on BTC&Co is cult-like and they are holding on for dear life, either to the pseudo investment or to their opinion.

All the “line drawers” that call themselves analysis in the Tweetershphere are rabid about a breakout they see in this market. Rather, the breakout is a little post triangle break that is finishing a simple correction retracing a Fibonacci 38% of the decline.

What is keen about the advance is the time factor is for a reversal today and for cycles to pull the market lower into a minor low mid to late April. 

It’s a phenomenon I have seen since the gold and oil boom in the early 80s and investors and traders – after they crashed – were still holding on and wanted to buy more twenty years later. At the beginning of the 1980s, inflation was a “way of life” and was never going to go away, never.  How the long cycles impact the markets. Today the crypto cult is even ignoring the downtrend and the underlying facts that they are actions are based on greed, and nothing rational.

The bigger problem is what happens when a billion-dollar industry goes bust?

“…both fiscal and monetary policy has painted America’s economy into a corner, a corner that has no alternatives that are positive to bail out the market and the economy when the next down cycle occurs.”  There will be no soft landing. 

So the cycles from the 2020 crash are now translated out a few years, they kicked the can down the road. But the Fed seems determined to bring things “back to normal.” Yet everyone knows that the market does not care about that. Crammer confirm that on his CNBC

I just watched a 3-minute video of a Crammer rant self-contradicting himself along the way and he’s happy with the bear market being over and what everyone is focused on “greed”.

From Covid19 in China, the Fed’s more hawkish rate policy, the price of oil, and the rate of inflation plus the war in Ukraine. The Russian threat of escalation. But the market since the invasion started on the 24th of February does not care.

So what are we missing? BTC&Co going bust.

Key stocks on the monitor list as leading indicators of the industry getting ready to puke are

The key market players are listed in the report with their revenues, sales, and strategies are Advanced Micro Devices Inc., NVIDIA Corporation,  Intel Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, Coinbase Ltd.

Quarterly Membership $249.00 Six Month Membership $425.00 Annual Membership $749.00

Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Thanks in advance for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

October 4, 2021

The battle for a brand name

Everything you see around you came from Man’s imagination and intellect.  So it goes, “in first best dressed!” Flaws and all look at Windows OS. Bitcoin, like Coke, Kleenex, and  Hertz, has the brand.

So anytime you’re referring to a Bitcoin, it could be about the ten thousand other cryptos on the market or coming to market, and with that so ends the limited supply side of the sales pitch.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
July 7, 2021

Bitcoin A Leading Risk Asset

Back on May 8, 2020, Contrary Thinker stated that “… Bitcoin is a risk asset and leads the stock market direction. It is not a hedge.”

While the coin supply is controlled, everyone is a crypto coin miner, creating new digital assets. So Bitcoin is a brand like Coke or Kleenex and a leader, but many, many, many more on the market and many on the way.

The sentiment is over the moon on BTC. Calling for $50,000.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
April 25, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/26/21 Bitcoin

A top is in place, and a more decline is expected.

Volatility Report of 4/16/21 did not mix words when it said, “The volatility background provides a setup for a 30% to an 80% fall in the next 30 to 45 days.” That forecast was based on both our timing method and our dynamics model. Our current work expects the decline to pick up speed, not based on some wild guess to get publicity. Rather Contrary Thinker’s methods, which include the curation of social media content all of this is excited about the “new game” on the street and speculating about what it is going to do next and why. All of which comes across as “… throwing it at the wall to see what sticks.”

For the EWT petitioner, the decline unfolded in a nice and neat five-wave structure, calling the larger trend down. Thus far, the decline has only been 25% in a week, which is certainly not the makings of a currency unless the vendors have a wide bid/offer spread to cover their risk and dispose of the digital currency at the time of the transaction. That statement can be expended to all the cryptos as not being a substitute for money.

I would add that it will not look much like a hedge when the profit takers are done.

The breakdown level of 58k was taken out on the open. After putting in a near term now at 47.5k, the remainder of the initial targets remain 45k, 39k, 33k, and 25k. The legend of Bitcoin will not go away for the next 20 years. The smoke dream of pennies into tens of thousands was last born in the late 1920s, and the hat cycle is repeating. The question is how many banks – which to all accounts and headlines came to the game late, will have deep enough pockets to hold for the very long term and still maintain client reserves. 

It is worth repeating that Contrary Thinker sees BTC as the front runner of ALL “risk taker’s” markets. It is the bell-weather. So goes BTC, so goes the Dow Jones, the S&P, and the world indices.

The featured chart inserted below shows part of our time factor research. The 1 year and a quarter cycle – 65 weeks- began cresting back in January of this year. As with all bullish cycles, it is right hand translated, skewed to the right for its nominal price high, which gives it little time to make it to its cycle low due in June or July.

The bottom line in the face of all the sky is falling Hennypennies, the US dollar is the world reserve currency, and nothing will change that except that the alternatives will look even more fragile. Since the Plaza Accord, the death of the dollar has been the rallying cry for any publication trying to get a readership. After 40 years of neo-liberal currency debasement, the green back-ended its secular bear market in 2011. Today the USA is on the verge of real economic growth, and the demand for dollars for infrastructure will push the USD higher. Plus,  offshore currencies will find their way into this growth, into US capital.


Get the next three issues of MarketMap-2021 – for the time factor. Take the 45-day subscription trial, which includes the eBook of MarketMap’s 2021/22 cycles, the Special Report “Traits of a Market Panic” to make a Fortune PLUS eligible for a long-term discount when you subscribe. 


MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.

Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

April 16, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/16/21

The topping of the cryptocurrency brand Bitcoin

The volatility background provides a setup for a 30% to an 80% fall in the next 30 to 45 days. The EWT count looks complete; furthermore, the long-term chart ran from 30k to 60k on panic buying as measured by our volatility model. The advance was all FOMC, which should be easy to flip without a logical base. The current L-T and I-T context call for breakouts or trend following signals to get carryover. Contrary Thinker’s bias is for BTC to signal lower prices. Hence trend following cross under, or breaks below the key level of 58,000 should get carry over. If so, the next stop is 45k, 39k, 33k, and 25k.

Contrary Thinker sees BTC as the front runner of the “risk taker’s” markets. So goes BTC, so goes the Dow Jones.

 

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
March 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 3/4/21

The Dollar Is Dead; Long Live The Dollar

There are so many false theories and narratives about the dollar and other assets; they are not worth debunking. Advisors and managers should consider the source and the underlying assumptions used to propagate and regurgitate social media content.

To cut through the fog of misinformation, Contrary Thinker listens to the market. The two middle chart windows contain our I-T trend following systems both on buy signals in terms of direction. What gives the most recent buy signal some punch is Technical Event Model’s (TEM) setup.  The weekly bar has %C on a spike, causing a technical event #2, calling for a dynamic trend. The chart on the left is TEM on the perceived risk data, which is on a new TE#2. The last time that happened, there was a 6% move that followed.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
February 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 2/4/21

The unraveling of the secular bull market in risk assets will come from the renewed secular bull market in the USD that began in 2011.

The redistribution of the wealth from the very top 1% to the 99%, will not blow out the budget or create monetary-based inflation, not turning the USA into a banana republic. I understand why the majority have a hard time getting their head around this when they cater to people with money. But highly unlikely not anyone in the 1%.
Furthermore, long-term Rooseveltian Economics is not Communism – no centralized ownership of assets –  and has the basis for the longest bull market from 1942 to 1966 / 69 / 72, bubble up economics.
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
January 14, 2021

Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21

The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.

Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!