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August 22, 2022

MarketMap™ 2022 Issue#18

The issue at the next low will be the evidence behind it from all three dimensions, time, price, and dynamics.

Will those matrics see it as a Near Term one day nothing or something more meaningful?
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July 28, 2022

Bear Market Historical Chart Gallery

The Nature of Bear Market, Panics, and Long Bar Days

When it comes to what a bear market is investors and traders don’t hear much. They may read that a decline of 20% puts the market in the bear market territory. but that is about it.

Professional advisors, managers, and traders need to know the signs of a major peak, and the personality of the decline as it goes through its phases. We need to know what to expect, how to differentiate early between a bear and a correction, where panics fit in with the long-term decline and all bear markets don’t look like 1937.

Here is a chart gallery of bear markets from the 1929 event to date. Analysis of each chart to follow with an excel file download containing all the data for bulls and bears from 1900 to date.

If you are not a Contrary Thinker, here is your chance to access this report and chart gallery, the excel file, and six months of membership which includes MarketMap™ -2023 and all issues of MarketMap™ -2022 to catch you up in one fell swoop.

 

Six-Month Membership $425.00

 

Chart Gallery Below

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July 20, 2021

Volatility Report Fang Index

The Fang’s days are over, traders see low-risk high-reward short selling here.

Almost a year ago I pointed out that Tesla was: “From a risk management point of view, the type of L-T buying for the last eight months is FOMO, panic buying, see the left window of the monthly chart, as easy to flip as the gold markets flip recently.

Contrary Thinker will be looking at the S-T charts for a sell signal. The I-T to L-T risk is 600, where it began its panic buying.”

Today the Fang+ index is looking at a double top that happens to be at predicted COT dates. The 2/19/221 dates were astrological and set a theme of corrections for the year and the COT on the 14th was a Solar-Lunar COT, an Astrological COT date, and the exact date of the secondary peak of the Nasdaq dot com peak in 2000, which is also in gear with the 45-year cycle (22 1/2 year).

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January 2, 2021

What Contrary Thinker Told its Membership

The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness

Published on: Jan 22, 2020: “All measures of market sentiment are at highs or extreme highs, from put/call ratios to CNN’s greed index, you name it. The outside world’s focus for this outright giddy disposition and  talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values focuses on the following four elements…” Read it here. 

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September 2, 2020

Volatility Reports 09/02/20 Stock Market

“Best first day of September for the S&P +.75% since 2010.”

“The S&P 500 was up 7% last month. Here’s what it did the next month the past 15 times it was up at least 7%: You might notice a pattern. 5.0% 5.9% (3.1%) 0.5% 0.8% 5.7% 5.1% 9.4% 5.3% 3.4% 3.7% (0.5%) 0.1% 3.0% 4.5% for an Avg 3.2%” 

Does the above type of handicapping work? I doubt it.
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Sentiment among financial professionals propagated in the public sphere is predominantly bullish, as the above headlines. I have compiled over four weeks the content from the Twitter space provided by a sponsored compendium of TradingView. To date, 99% of all stock market posts are bullish in the face of the bulls proclaiming the market is climbing a “wall of worry,” Gives me a mind cramp.

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August 29, 2020

Volatility Reports 08/31/20 Stock Market

Fed’s Bullard says the recession is over but rates will ‘stay low for a long time’

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Short volatility investors, fully invested asset allocation bulls, would find this news from the Fed over the weekend comforting. Bullard also believes reports on the economy will be “one of the best quarters ever for economic growth in the U.S.” The market’s optimism is in gear with his thinking.

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August 25, 2020

Volatility Reports Stock Market 08/25/20

The foresight from the 2016 election, the crashes (2) in 2018 (aka volatility regime change) have implications for today’s market, the election in November 2020 and the 2021 markets

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Literally every advisor/content provider being shared and re-broadcasted in the various forms of media are focus on reporting the new highs, the continuation of the uptrend, and the record-breaking market experience from March 23, low.  This background sentiment has been clear for the last 4 weeks.

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August 7, 2020

Volatility Reports 08/7/20 Stock Market

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July 27, 2020

Volatility Report 7/27/20 mini Russell

 

The evidence stacks up that the risk equity markets are on the verge of the next leg of decline.  In the face of  “preemptive” volatility suppression, there is no way the local or the world economy is going to grow its way out of all the debt. The only question that remains is who gets thrown under the bus?
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July 16, 2020

Volatility Reports 07/16/20 Nasdaq

Nasdaq Hyperbolic Peak, in place. What supports this idea is equivocation by so many advisors and analysts on what this market is doing, and their subject lines or intros being “questions.”
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I’m sure not many recall the peak in early 2000 by the Nasdaq composite. It ended a secular bull market from the low in 1974. A great bull move. I wanted to point out the pattern at this inverted V top. For one it broke the upper channel of the long term trend from the ’74 low. Such “throw overs” are equivalent to investors paying any price for these shares of stock. The type of emotional investing old money likes to see for profit-taking.

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