Intermediate Term Tidal Charts w/SMA
Gold. 8/10/20 The Panic Buying in Gold ended today. Back on July 27, we called for a peak in Gold because it was reflecting climatic behavior, panic buying. Big swing traders will see prices reverse all of the emotional buying that began at 1900-1950 at least.
Crude Oil 8/10/20 - the bounce appears to have run its course and the question is will the decline only retrace a part of the advance or will there be new lows. Market tracing out a bearish wedge.
Bitcoin 8/11/20 - Everything appears great until real money is needed to pay bills, rent, clothing, and transportation.
Like Gold, Bitcoin is a risk asset; and if either of these investment plays is about to become the currency of trade, the markets would be in shock thinking through the transition, you think?
… BTC made its high on both I-T and S-T panic buying. That high was also a pivot after a breakout from a horizontal triangle, which in the majority is a terminal move.
Credit Markets 8/17/20 - Debt ratios had been looking bad before the pandemic, and today it's worse. Inflation, which has been a nonstarter for decades may be on the verge of a comeback in a world awash with fiat currencies.
So, the credit markets are starting to appear spooked. Volatility Reports sees a number of cracks in the bonds across all ratings. Here is a more complete picture. Cycles have peaked and the market is beginning a new downtrend.
US Dollar 8/20/20 - The technical background is bullish for the USD. From a contrary thinking point of view, the investment theme that went rabid in a very short period of time, as in a few weeks, is widely circulated. Measures of this sentiment have hit extremes seen coincidentally at lows since 2011, as revealed in the following chart.
08/21/20 Bloomberg #commodity index appears to be in the very early stages of a new bull market. This is a change in its secular trend that saw it and other similar indices peak in 2007.
CLICK TO ENLARGE You can scroll through the charts from the bottom of each with the < or > arrows.
The Tidal Wave Model is now updated with the new Phased Moving average hardcoded into the system. The charts featured in this gallery have it running on the weekly bar for an I-T point of view.
Bonds: The interest rate volatility index is breaking a leading edge of fear hitting the biggest market in the world, the US government bonds. Major peak and a long term return to normalcy. Junk Bonds wedging out a peak.
Euro Dollar: From the date of its creation many have assumed its failure. Since its major bull market peak, the downtrend appears secular in its structure. During periods of economic recession, there is a strong tendency for separation, and that includes nations. At best the Euro will be in a counter-trend recovery of its multi-year decline. S-T the market has finished its first leg up in that counter-trend.
US Buck: Began a new secular – very long term – bull market in 2011. The recent correction is counter-trend, which found support in both I-T and L-T support on a mini panic washout and extremely high bearish sentiment.
Shanghai, Kospi, and Nikkei: The major Pac-rim markets are looking bearish. The Nikkei has failed to tag along with the US markets making new highs. Based on its most recent setup, that supports an HROC advance – a post triangle thrust – the market should be hit with a herd of disappointed bulls. The Shanghai is on a new sell signal and the Kospi is setting up for a reversal. All of these are worth watching for leading sell signals in the states. The Hang Seng and the Kospi have bear funds/ETFs CT will look at also.
Commodities, while a new bull market is seen here, the good news is out. that news is supported by a higher rate of inflation being ok by the FRB. the well broadcasted bullish breakout by NY harbor unleaded is testing the breakout level. It, like Crude, is back up by a high degree of I-T tension is measured by our volatility model. As such a forceful move is expected and traders should tie off on the ability or inability of these energy markets to break out.
I-T Technical Event Model (TEM), across all markets, is registering a TE#2; and has been signaling for several weeks that an HROC trend is on the horizon. This backdrop fits with our notion of “hyper-correlation” that is everything gets high with a massive inflow or outgo of cash at the same time.
…more to follow
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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