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    Intermediate Term Tidal Charts w/SMA

The Tidal Wave Model is now updated with the new Phased Moving average hardcoded into the system. The charts featured in this gallery have it running on the weekly bar for an I-T point of view.

Bonds: The interest rate volatility index is breaking a leading edge of fear hitting the biggest market in the world, the US government bonds. Major peak and a long term return to normalcy.  Junk Bonds wedging out a peak.

Euro Dollar:  From the date of its creation many have assumed its failure. Since its major bull market peak, the downtrend appears secular in its structure. During periods of economic recession, there is a strong tendency for separation, and that includes nations. At best the Euro will be in a counter-trend recovery of its multi-year decline. S-T the market has finished its first leg up in that counter-trend.

US Buck: Began a new secular – very long term – bull market in 2011. The recent correction is counter-trend, which found support in both I-T and L-T support on a mini panic washout and extremely high bearish sentiment.

Shanghai, Kospi, and Nikkei: The major Pac-rim markets are looking bearish. The Nikkei has failed to tag along with the US markets making new highs. Based on its most recent setup, that supports an HROC advance – a post triangle thrust – the market should be hit with a herd of disappointed bulls.  The Shanghai is on a new sell signal and the Kospi is setting up for a reversal. All of these are worth watching for leading sell signals in the states.  The Hang Seng and the Kospi have bear funds/ETFs CT will look at also.

Commodities, while a new bull market is seen here, the good news is out. that news is supported by a higher rate of inflation being ok by the FRB.  the well broadcasted bullish breakout by NY harbor unleaded is testing the breakout level. It, like Crude, is back up by a high degree of I-T tension is measured by our volatility model. As such a forceful move is expected and traders should tie off on the ability or inability of these energy markets to break out.

I-T Technical Event Model (TEM), across all markets, is registering a TE#2; and has been signaling for several weeks that an HROC trend is on the horizon. This backdrop fits with our notion of “hyper-correlation” that is everything gets high with a massive inflow or outgo of cash at the same time.

…more to follow

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

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— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

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