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    Long Volatility

November 9, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/9/21

What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable?

We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal”  to the new “Gilded Ages” pro-business laissez-faire now called neoliberal, aka new liberal. What also changed from 1980 to date is the configuration of the house/senate and the president’s parties. Gridlock has been the configuration of governmental power in the majority over the last 40 years.

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November 4, 2021

Contrary Thinker 11/4/21

I may get frustrated but I am not hallucinating. That the results of all the “lies” from several cable news networks to fringe groups with large internet followings purporting blood-sucking pedophilia circles attributed to the elite undermines the best political system we have for capitalism.

The above reflects Cycle peaks are clustered in this time frame, from the peak on Nov. 18 for the Dow into today the 16th and fill out Monday the 20th. They all relate to their own 2 to 2 1/2 year cycle, which creates a variance of a small degree. One cycle is 2.2353 years, for example. To pick out a few notable peaks caused by the 2-year cycle, a similar cluster hit in April of 2000, another July of 2007, and again in August of 2008, also mid-January 2018.

A similar configuration of cycles converged at the March 2009 low +/- 1 month.

while nothing here is perfect, there are four major cycles hitting how +/- a few days that are known for their influence to change the direction of the markets.

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November 2, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/2/2021

It’s not the train you hear that will kill you

In my early days, the talk use to be that a good market analysis got off wall street to get away from the pressures of the industry so he/she could form an objective point of view. Well from Gainsville to Sedona many of taken that advice. If distance matters, well living half the time in the land of Oz, the down under, should put me in a superlative environment. Well yea, ok maybe.

But a nearby journo Mark Saunokonoko, a print, online journalist, and feature writer published by the Australian 9News Network “Ten scenarios that could rock the world in 2022.” Where Mark did a good job isolating none market events, outside world events, that could have a dramatic impact on the 13-year-old “Great Bull Market”  Here is his list, my thoughts, and a few others you may have to put your ear to the ground to know something is coming.

He has grouped the ten possible threats this way: ”

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October 27, 2021

Dynamic New Trade Posts

Dynamic Trade Page – Full View Spreadsheets

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October 4, 2021

Volatility Reports

Wedging out a top and TEM both daily bar and weekly bar support an HROC trend.

high beta index trade idea

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September 30, 2021

MarketMap Issue#15

The 90-year Cycle is one of Grim Awakenings

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September 29, 2021

New Trade Ideas

Top Ten Positions

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September 27, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/27/21

Historical Thresholds are Rare, Hence Money Managers, Investment Advisors, and Economists Tend to Operate and Think in Crowds.

They are comfortable that way justifying why they take risks with the objective of beating the average return of the S&P when max drawdowns are always possible based on their own rationale that no one can time the market?

Instead, let us see what is the market saying as of Friday.

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September 22, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/22/21

Monday it was pointed out that “cycles are lower into the next COT due early this week, the 20th”

To be clear MarketMap – 2021 issue#14 said, “Here is the key if the market blows clear through that date and without any traditional TA calling for a low plus the new TA dynamics timing supporting a forceful trend, the odds will favor the new bear market into mid-October.”

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September 22, 2021

Volatility Reports 9/22/21 CGX and EEM

Typical trend following content is beginning to flood the social media tracks with all the reasons why one should be bearish on the Shanghai Dow.

The execution of our bearish positions began in March 2021 and was filling out in July. Our bearish positions are now up over 50% +/- and we are only halfway there; and will double down on the break (see execution table below.)

While the negativity is over the top, it is clear that at least an I-T cyclical peak has been established in the PacRim and emerging markets; and from China to Nikkei risk is 30%

The top chart is the monthly bar of the…

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