March 29, 2022
March 29, 2022
Only a few of the great ones gift away the secrets behind their methods
In the majority, few in the industry are open-minded to these methods, no one believes anything works unless they are running with the herd so they feel better when they are wrong because everyone else was.
The attitude that “I would rather be right and alone than be wrong in good company is not one of the best ideas for sales/marketing letters. Because everyone chases the equity curve. As everyone reading this memorandum knows, the advisor/trader is only as good as his last trade. So they grow cynical after finding a hot advisor/trader right in time for a few losing trades and drop out. For the herd, this cynical cycle persists over the long term, not for the Contrary Thinker.
It outlines how a number of long-term cycles are coming into play now. You can go back and review older issues of MarketMap™ (MM) from this year to see how it is crunch time, tieing into the 40/20 year fixed cycle into 2022, the 83/84 year cycle coming from the panic year of 1857 into WWII year 1939 then into today, which has the strange coincident with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Plus the 60/30 year cycle from 1903 to 1962 (which is our scenario year) into 2022.
However, a few charts and analyses are left out. For example, the thirty-year cycle is shown in this animated Giff. From the big crash pivot low in 1932 to the 1962 crash, the cycle skipped 1992 (mini-panic in late 1989 and full-on panic on the Bombay Exchange. Leading the market to the big change expected in 2022.
It is just not anchored in fixed change dates by the market. But an astronomical event anchors it as well because Venus, Mars, and Saturn are all at 0* – in a line – in the calendar month of Aquarius, A rare occurrence, about every 30 years, and it is closely associated with major changes in the market, crash, and recessions. For example, going back from the bear in 1903, there is another great crash.
The Panic of 1873 and the subsequent depression had several underlying causes for which economic historians debate relative importance. American inflation, rampant speculative investments (overwhelmingly in railroads), the demonetization of silver in Germany and the United States, ripples from economic dislocation in Europe resulting from the Franco-Prussian War (1870–1871), and major property losses in the Great Chicago Fire (1871) and the Great Boston Fire (1872) helped to place a massive strain on bank reserves, which, in New York City, plummeted from $50 million to $17 million between September and October 1873.
Advancing 30 years, Teddy Roosevelt became president after the assassination of President William McKinley.
Roosevelt’s words and actions soon frightened businesses. His administration launched the first of many antitrust suits in February 1902. And in August of that year, Roosevelt gave a speech in which he asserted that corporations were “creatures of the state” and that the government has “the right to control them.”
The next month, the U.S. economy fell into a recession.
The stock market had been falling for four months when the recession started. By November 1903, the Dow Jones industrial average marked a low that was 40% lower than it was the day Roosevelt took office.
Stock Market Crash 1932
Putting the Buy-and-Hold Gospel to the Ultimate Test
Think you know the lessons from ‘Black Monday’? Think again.
By Jason Zweig
Oct. 25, 2019 11:00 am ET
By mid-November, the Dow had lost almost half of its value. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century, 89 percent below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.
More big change dates and 2022 refinements with risk asset map for 2022 next…
This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International