April 11, 2022
April 11, 2022
Wall Street has not changed in the past 30 years. It remains phobic regarding the bearish opinion of stocks, it is a “never sell mentality.”
Contrary Thinker gave its first warning on January 23, 2018, and October 3, 2018. The latter of which I received several “kudos” from membership. This advisory gave subsequent warnings on February 23, 2020, and on May 15, 2021, this advisory went “off risk” and remains in that status. It is strongly suggested to at least sell into rallies. I have created a personal hedge fund available on Trade Exchange, which became active just a few months ago. Previously only long dollar ETF and long dollar/short yen ETF. Today it is much more than the actual results shown in the iPhone screenshot.
Along the way, since early 2018 there have been many clues that a major change was on the way. One was the launching of Robinhood and more recently, the copycat brokerage “Beanstox” from a “shark tank” panel member trying their hand at the same thing.
On July 28, 2021, Robinhood sold shares at $38 per share ahead of its public debut on the Nasdaq on July 29, raising close to $2 billion. A broker catering to “its time to do money” any time, on a bus or “just hanging with your dog.” Well if the “odd lot” theory from the 1920s is valid, a broker doing an IPO for 2 billion marketing to the little guy or gal is part of that contrary indication.
Regarding the phobia, the majority have regarding the selling shares, of all the posts I read this past week not one suggested or hinted to sell. They were either bearish on bonds, bullish on gold mining shares, bullish on utilities and oil & gas stocks, or bullish on commodity stocks. But one factor is clear the bull bravado has died out, and the poking fun at what they call “Perma bears” has stopped. Well, it should as there is no such animal in “market analysis ” that is always bearish, there are “traders” yes but they go either way – long and short. Sure there have been “end of the world” types but they talk about other issues, not market analysis.
But the Perma bulls – who I will call the “do not know how to trade mob” have moved into denial mode calling the decline a “rotational” correction. All in the face of market correlations collapsing toward “1.”
This issue of MarketMap-2022 Annual Scenario Planner will provide a Volatility Report with it in order to demonstrate how the two – time and price – interface.
The featured chart here highlights the change of trend date from the trama date that started the ripples.
The change of trend dates (COTs) I have nickname hot spots, but they are the same. Here I am focused on the short term from the highs posted by the leadership FAANG index and its big brother the NASDAQ composite. From the three pivot configuration that made up that top –
the high on 11/4, the low on 11/10, and the final ATH on 11/19 you can see the color-coded arrows of the pivots they projected and their accuracy.
This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International