MarketMap™ 2018 Change of Trend Dates
October 19, 2018
October 19, 2018
Bull market peaks that occur in December or January produce a seasonal pattern that repeats itself…Based on this seasonal pattern, if we see a top here in the middle of January, it will be followed by a series of Annual size One Day declines culminating on August 8 and October 19 with panic days caused by national security threats. pg3, issue #1
Today, the breakout by implied volatility on the Russell will continue, after this pause, the market – along with the others, has at least a deep test of the most recent low instore. In this L-T chart, you can see how the market followed through lower after the initial surge by %BB-VIX.
The other factor here was the feel of the panic low when it happened on October 11. It did not have the same unabashed smell of fear at the bottom. That comes from experience, but from an empirical point of view, the media was not screaming blood in the streets as they did in February and like all another critical low. Instead, it had that unassuming no one is paying attention first leg down of a bear market.
The TEM – as “Volatility Reports” pointed out – did reach a panic low reding. Our investors and traders can take such an event to the bank on a short-term basis it will lead to a choppy market until the next TE, same way as saying the background permits a change of trend.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
A Contrary Thinker Trader Since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820
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