MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner #20
November 22, 2023
November 22, 2023
Context, Price, Time, and Sentiment
Volatility Model says “risk off. Technical Analysis says, “irregular top.” Time says the big turn that started late 2021 is nearly completed and there is a high probability of a change of trend (COT) November 22, 2023. Market sentiment says “Deja Vu” just like it was in late 2017, late 2019 and late 2021 preceding the tops.
Context is Long Volatility
The first chart in the Gallery is the SPY on top of the chasing alpha index aka short volatility. Since the inception of the index when it diverges from the S&P, 80% of the time it is a lead signal to get out of the market long term. To be precise, when the two indexes are out of gear one makes a new high and the other does not. Add to that Connie Brown’s Index when it has a bearish divergence the changes are up to 90% that a high pivot is near and a bear market correction or greater will follow.
Short term Volatility Report says the uptrend remains persistent. It will stay that way, low energy, contracting range, and feeble intraday until the model cycles to a new extreme. With price and sentiment lined up for a high pivot here, it is worth the wait for the model (TEM) to provide a signal for a forceful trend.
The bar chart of the Dow is all you need here. Both wave counts (bar chart structure) are remarkably like the way the averages came off the November 19, 2021, and January 2, 2022, all-time highs, and their initial down legs. Given the leading diagonal or wedge shape decline from the ATHs and the secondary highs. Both followed by wave two corrections that looked and felt like new bull markets to the majority.
However thus far the bulls have the bravado but not the internals or momentum to sustain at this point. Plus, as MarketMap™ will point out the bulls are out of time.
The bulls are back in their “mutual admiration society” mood at the same time CNNs sentiment index now reaching greed. At the current clip may be extreme early next week. It is difficult for me to find anyone – except the boys out of Gainesville, Ga. – that have any hint at a bearish conclusion to the year.
I am sure the bulls and the majority will focus on the ten-year cycle and the year of “5.” That part of the cycle is not much on either side of the battle for investment survival. I’ve discussed the actuarial approach used by Trader Vic, which calls this bull market from 2009 old. Even if you anchor it in 2020, it is old. On the other hand, if the secular bull market from the 1974 low needs to be corrected, the bull market may need the dripple wiped form its chin and made presentable for visitors.
I don’t need to with the cycles that have brought on the topping process have not gone away and point lower into 2026 +/-.
First it should be brought to all my friends’ attention how accurate the map is at drawing out the scenario for the year. It is published in early February, sometimes late January every year. It is amazing to me on the lookback, I should pay closer attention to it.
The side by side with the weekly S&P provides an effective way to see how it can be used to map out a scenario for the coming year.
In that regard there remain six more weeks. The current COT that the Map is looking for fits with the next major astrological event, the Crawford Attractor due on the 24th of November. There are several cycles that peak here. The COT calendar covers most of them. Plus, the tidal cycle – solar/lunar has a low tide this weekend. With nearly all markets in a rally phase into this date, it will be a change from up to down.
Ther next four maps are all based on the same method, just different data. I posted them to let everyone see how well they fit the way the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq moved this year. They will now be a part of the annual map coming out early 2024. As well as Bonds and Bitcoin.
Lastly is the long cycle. There are two, the 90/45/9 year and the 74/36.75/18.6 year. The last two charts highlight the 18.6-year cycle trending lower into 2026.
As a side bar here. Many analysts, investors, managers, traders are put off by Astrology. But our current calendar of twelve months has several links to the zodiac with its twelve signs. You can interchange the word signs for months and have a better handle on the approach.
Today the fact that various times of the year have a different influence on how mankind behaves is a given. Spring (April) and Autumn (Libra.) How many crashes have there been in April vs. October? Mostly, we don’t need to know “why” certain relationships happen. But if there is a high correction to a reversal, I want to be there and relate that to you.
While my associates and I have studied the ten-year overlay, we have found a different set of formulas for a line chart that outlines the year and its turning points. Here is an example of what Contrary Thinker published in its January issue of MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner.
It works so well we've been able to apply it to the other primary markets. See the crude oil map here. We do rates, gold, bitcoin and the USD maps for the year.
Do not expect a mechanical trading system but an idea of direction for the year broken into quarters and the time windows for change. I think you’ll find the scenario uncanny in its accuracy.
I also include the map from 2022 for your review.
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