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    MarketMap 2024 Scenario Planner #2

    December 19, 2023

December 19, 2023

MarketMap 2024 Scenario Planner #2

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Ignoring the long-term cycles entails a risk of ruin.

Looking into 2024 the big picture was laid out by Contrary Thinker at the end of 2021 early 2022. The weight of the long-term cycles is bearish. No whistling past the grave yard, the bottom line is a major bear market will happen sometime in 2024. If you want to label it as part of what begin in early 2022 or as a new bear market, is purely academic. While CT nailed the high at the end of 2021, its a case of either or today. The stock markets both US and world wide will start a major decline  today (within the next ten biz days) with the market is putting in a large double top with the highs posted in late 2021 and early 2022.

Or, it will be put off again into the second half of the year. That is the big swing timing issue we are faced with.  You will see that big swing alternative in the Mapping for 2024, when published. In either case the opportunities for swing traders will be way better than fiscal year 2023.

While there is a clear alternative for a new leg higher of the old bull to carry into the third quarter of 2024, the work done thus far continues to suggest that an irregular top – as in double top with the second high being nominally higher – is in play with only some backing and filling into the change of seasons late this week.

The dominant long-term cycles are easy to forget by the majority. Because if its not happening today, than “forget bout it” as they say.  However, we all know that no one will or can outlaw the business cycle. The best the authoritative powers can do is kick the can down the road.

In that regard, I mentioned during the Trump year that the bible says to save during good times so one can have a a cash cushion during bad time, yet Trump foolishly went along with the Republicans to push through the tax cuts. Adding to the deficit. Next came the pandemic and the infusion of liquidity directly to the people ,a real first but also adding to the deficit.

Today the kicking the can down the road may continue if the is speculation about Biden’s plan is true. That is to help first time home buyers and boost the slow resale market is his introduction of a first time home owners grant to help with down payment. All of this results in a time problem, no matter how you cut it. If default is not in the cards, either they will need to tax the 1% or there will be an austerity program or a combination of both. In any case there is a time issue here.

From a business / market cycle point of view, it becomes a problem because work fills the time allotted.  So, when the low for a cycle is due but the crest of that cycle is “artificial” postponed the down phase of the cycle is exaggerated to finish in a shorter period of time. In cycle terms it is called “right hand translated.”  Something that will manifest inside the markets as a crash. I expect at least one this decade, maybe two.

The gallery shown here has charts for the 18.8-year nodal cycle, the Juglar cycle, and the Jupiter Effect. I feel strongly it would be naïve to ignore them for short term gain.

I am not a pessimistic type of person, full stop. But after the systemic faults in our pollical systems (electoral college/state system without mandatory voting to name two) were made clear, the overview from offshore Australia became a more than a little concerning. I have held since 2018 that it would be a domestic political event that would be the undoing of the stock market. With that in mind here are two events I would keep an open mind to in 2024 and 2025.

It is not Jack C that has done this research, it was compiled over the years some before J F Kennedy’s assassination.

  • All US presidents elected in a 0 ended year between 1840 and 1960 died in office, giving rise to the famous 20 year death cycle.
  • Combining the 12 and 20 year election cycles gave a complex 60 year cycle of US leaders participating in presidential elections and subsequently dying in office. (significant p < .01).
  • President Joe Biden is in both cycles.

No one wants to dwell on such matters but it would be foolish not to keep this in mind that for any other reason except Joe is pushing 80 in a few years. What would happen if Joe became ill. He’s a tough old boy and top of the ladder in foreign policy. How knows.

Also, while everyone I read is analyzing earnings and deficits, the impacts of interest rates and inflation, I think it is foolish to avoid the topic of war.

The markets will begin to anticipate the increasing trend towards conflict. First Ukraine and next Gaza. How the US is going into the gulf area to fight Houthi terrorist. Next?

I am sure the following cycles will get your attention, they get mine. There are cycles returning in 2023-2025 that happened in 1776, 1861 and 1941. What makes this decade one of massive change is how the 248 year cycle, a 165 year cycle and a 84 year cycle all come to bear in this decade, starting this new year.

If by chance you do not recall your American history, they are the Revolution, the Civil war and WWII.

We certainly hope things will be different this time. But given the political schisms in the States, in the EU and South America only time will tell. I hope they choose wisely, but the facts remain.

The G7 is working angles to seize Russian assets’ to fund the Ukraine war with Moscow money of 300 billion. The US is also dealing with attacks on our shipping in the Gulf of Aden.

More on timing and the big swing maps for 2024 shortly.

 

Exclusive offer to my professional network, $74.95!

There is a massive difference between what is posted in the public stream and what is delivered privately.

What is circulated publicly can be bent by political and social goals. Whereas what is related in private is not about being social (as in social media.) It is about delivering the facts based on hard research.

That does not mean social content can’t be right. The trend will bail out the best and the worse research. It does mean that the social content will not be there when the market’s trend changes. The research based on hard facts will be. Other research providers may be more sociable communicating what is “liked.” But no one else has as comprehensive of a method who is unafraid to make tough calls when it’s time. Good timing improves trend following.

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Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

 

 

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