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    MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#11 Sample

    April 5, 2024

April 5, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#11 Sample

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Bullish Spin Sustained until today’s open

The news over the holiday was presented as bullish.  The FRB “we have a chance” logic is entering a period of rethink.

The bullish forecast will always find an excuse for the bear coming later than sooner. The balanced narrative from the majority suggests that months from now “the never-ending gravy train of profits, economic growth, and security may start to morph into signs that the patchwork of misdirection and false narratives is unravelling.”

Hmm, if that’s true and the market is a discounting mechanism as Wall Street’s EMT suggest that would be a negative drawing card, would it not? The problem is the market cannot be explained by EMT and its so-called discounting even while popular because it makes intuitive sense to so many.

The same way Adam Smith’s invisible hand is palpable to the fundamentally inclined and the new CMTs. Yet they do not find cycles, or tidal and planetary influences as meaningful, at best second tier.

However, Contrary Thinker does and finds that the TIME element is an important factor in a comprehensive market-based approach.

For your background, the Astro-analyst for what is called a hard (negative) aspect, which by their methods suggest, if the market is selling off into one buy it.” Yet today they want it both ways thinking it will pull the market higher into that period starting a seasonal top in August 2024.

But I think I will hold them to their words and research I have that calls for the hard aspects due August 19 as Crawford negative attractors pulling the market lower into that time frame. See risk takers map shown here.

Headlines read: “Powell said he doesn’t see elevated risk of recession”

The media put it this way, There is “no reason” to think that the risks of a U.S. recession are elevated, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday.  “There is no reason to think the economy is in a recession or the edge of one,” Powell said.  He said he didn’t think that this view was controversial among forecasters. “We are at a place where the economy is strong. The labor market is at a good place,” Powell said.  The Fed wants to use its interest-rate tool in a way that keeps this strength but also allows further progress against inflation, he added. “We have a chance at that outcome,” the Fed chairman said.

However, historically, rate cuts are used to cushion the effects of a bear market or a recession. So, this thinking is for a perfect world. “We have a chance at…” a Goldie locks outcome. Well ok fine but such high expectations leave little room for variance.

What will be very telling is market action in April, because it is the best or the second-best bullish month in their best season from Halloween to Memorial Day. So goes April so goes the stock market with expectations running high.

Moreover, from an astrological point of view there are influential events taking place from the Monday through the first of April through April 15th when the big event Jupiter conjunct Uranus is within 1* of the exact conjunction. In fact, this Crawford positive Attractor has been the pulling power since entering a 6* orb from the March lows. It will climax on the 20th and begin its separation or declining influence. The exact date of this event does not need to be a climatic pivot and there is reason to suspect the top will come in sooner.

There is a host of Astro event hitting all in the early April period, that all have a high correlation to changes of trend, the new Mercury cycle starts on April 9. The Mars conjuncts Saturn, this last occurred at the I-T secondary high April 5, 2022. Plus, known COT events, April 8 the midpoint for the Mercury retrograde that began on April 1, more on that from a psychoanalysis point of view below. But foremost a total solar eclipse in Aries an event with strong association to bear markets more over because of the hot spots it is making with other objects and points in space, i.e., north node. For example, the last time was 7/27/2008.

In astrology beyond the correlation of timing events, psychoanalysis can be applied. Indulge me here, please.

A retrograde in general regarding all planets is a time for reframing their archetypical meaning. It is the influence for retracing, reliving, and rewriting the recent cycle. It creates the affinity for man to observe things from another perspective, for untangling the thoughts and responses of the previous cycle. Be it Jupiter in its 398.88-day synodic cycle to the fastest cycle of Mercury 88-day synodic cycle.

On April 1 the retrograde of Mercury begins, it appears to go slow to stationary; and then appears to go backwards. Its symbolic for our way of thinking and perceiving and communicating. It is the lens through which we perceive and understand our experiences, in this case how the investment community is forming beliefs about the markets.

The Mercury retrograde gets a bad rap for being the cause of communication breakdowns, computer failures, delays in transportation and the like. The Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse was in the early phase of the retrograde.

While most scientist find this anecdotal at best and an optical illusion, its relationship to changes in perceptions and problem solving remains.

What is consistently valid about this period that may account for delays that some experience is the tendency to find problems and more completely analysis them to see what can be revealed and upgraded. Turn something over and more unfolds. The cycle shifts mentality so different vantage points can witness more of the story. So, what market observers once thought made perfect sense, is being seen with new eyes. What was once assumed to be truth or fact gives way to alternate realities.

Since the S-T top on1/2/24 this cycle has taken prices higher based on the popular narrative we read about today and sited above. What the start of this new cycle does with both the retrograde on Monday 4/1/24 lasting to 4/25/24 with the new mercury cycle starting on 4/8 is push the market to ask, “is the narratives we created still the correct one?” What we once never thought to question or have time to ponder, Mercury’s retrograde takes the market there.

All toll there are five trend changers hitting in early April, Mercury retrograde, a new mercury, a total solar eclipse  in Aries which also joins the astrological objects associated with conflict and war, add to that the impact of Mars conjunct Saturn with its high correction to change the direction of the existing trend and lastly Venus conjunct Neptune, which is associated with a peaks in optimism and called “the drunk on love” transit.  The tidal system has its top also on April 5/8.

Regarding the four year cycle, I put it in context with the larger Juglar cycle and McWhirter’s 18.6 year cycle all of them cresting and pointing to economic contraction. While the four year is bullish, after its first sub cycle – the most bullish by rule – is over that the bears have their opportunity. As the chart above shows either one of its sub cycles has crested and is pointing lower.

What is important for Contrary Thinkers is their position that the four-year cycle bottomed in 10/27/2023 as seen on this featured chart. Which is fine, it explains for them the bull run to date. It also tells us where the key pivot is that will turn all the cycle analysis bearish when it is taken out. That is long term bearish. The same thing happened to the bond market, and long forgotten by now.

No matter the I-T chatter about rates, major cycle lows were broken in 2022 and the best bond traders can count on here is more counter trend rally. But the long term declining channel remains in place. Until and unless a breakout happens the lows of 2023 will be taken out to finish the first cycle of bond price declines, and interest rate increasing.  Rates over the next decade or two will be going up to reward savers with low risk returns.

Where as the risk markets will stop rewarding buy and hold investors and benefit traders.

 

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Monthly Membership $111.00

Country Thinking (CT) is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Understanding that risk management is more than diversification but the use of market timing “proper” to avoid risk.

CT building from first principles and factual market history avoiding generalizations and the average in its research for a more particular and exceptional insights. For our professional clients that range from advisors, managers, and traders they benefit from this approach and the passion to be great, that good is just not good enough.
Many thanks to everyone that has supported this work over the years and thanks in advance to the new members for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.
Comprehensive market research includes traditional Elliott Wave and technical analysis, time and cycles research including lunar cycles and astrology, contrarian evaluation of know news events, and foremost our unique volatility model that forecast the market’s dynamics.

Weekly “Volatility Reports,” fortnightly MarketMap™ – 2024 Scenario planner, real time updates in our closed to the public LinkedIn group and access for traders to real time trade ideas through our WhatsApp community.

 

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Country Thinking (CT) is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Understanding that risk management is more than diversification but the use of market timing “proper” to avoid risk.

CT building from first principles and factual market history avoiding generalizations and the average in its research for a more particular and exceptional insights. For our professional clients that range from advisors, managers, and traders they benefit from this approach and the passion to be great, that good is just not good enough.

Many thanks to everyone that has supported this work over the years and thanks in advance to the new members for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.

Comprehensive market research includes traditional Elliott Wave and technical analysis, time and cycles research including lunar cycles and astrology, contrarian evaluation of know news events, and foremost our unique volatility model that forecast the market’s dynamics.

Weekly “Volatility Reports,” fortnightly MarketMap™ – 2024 Scenario planner, real time updates in our closed to the public LinkedIn group and access for traders to real time trade ideas through our WhatsApp community.

Time is of the essence no matter how you look at it,  I hope to see you in the group today

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

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–Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

— Privacy Policy, we do not share your information with third parties. Full policy details here. 

 

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2024

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

— Privacy Policy, we do not share your information with third parties. Full policy details here. 

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