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    MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#12 Sample

    April 5, 2024

April 5, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#12 Sample

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No one wants to hear about a terminal move, the end of a trend, the unexpected

Its more than “livelihood. Its all about the group comradery or the avoidance of the embarrassment for not being in the party or some feeling about being left behind.

But today great expectations are established, nothing new here and the Fed based on their tact in their statements last Wednesday leave no room for variance. As issue #11 pointed out, we’ve either a period of closer examination of this pretext or precondition.

The market’s are leaving a number of clues behind;  that a top is forming here. Similar to the late 2021 early 2022 high, with the bull market leadership under selling pressure and the FANNG stocks increasing being attached by the regulators. Hence you have both negative news events increasing in their severity and not being ignored by the markets. The Semi-conductors sector has made a near perfect high, in both time and price.

The irregular top has been the pattern of major tops since 1999. The chart featured here is a good example. The measured move of 1 to 1 for the length of 5 of five for (C)[B} and the same 1 to 1 for (C) to be equal to (A). All hit in my ratio projected zone of resistance for 2024, at the high side.

A first target of 3,800 will be the first order of business for profit takers and there are lots of profits to take here. That is only a 10% dip or 30% on the bear etf.

Please note the price high for this sector happened on March 7 the same day the map made a high pivot and began its decline. If the map continues to hold true the sell off will continue to pick up momentum into the June turn, which could be the first of two panic sell offs this year.

Typical pattern from panic low to panic high with a mid-way panic breakout. Time is not on the side of the banks here. MarketMap has this sectors diverging from its cycle high posted at “iii” on Feb 8. From here cycles are lower into late June early July.

Both 2024 support and the ascending channel provide support at 40.75, if taken out there will be more selling.

Contrary Thinker outlooks

  1. bullish on VIX, Gold, USD, Commodities and Rates
  2. We are looking to buy dips in gold, Map has it higher for a few more weeks before its first correction.
  3. Waiting to buy oil, something is suggesting a big turn in June +/- a week or two. It shows up in all the mapping.
  4. Bearish on Euro, Dow & Co and bonds, looking foe selective bear trades in the equities and Bitcoin.

I mentioned in the group that the cycle for the banks was in a decline already, similar to the map of the Semi-conductors above did not get their top until early March.  The mapping for bonds suggest a high in this weekly period, which fits all the time work in the this years issues of MarketMap -2024 scenario planner.,

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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2024

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