• Background Image

    MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#7 (sample)

    March 3, 2024

March 3, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#7 (sample)

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

If Fractals exist in nature do they have to exist in humans behavior as well?

Good technical analysis is grounded on truths, and for that reason incorporates time and price into the formula, it is not form alone. Ironically we call Technical Analysis market timing yet few technician’s have methods for folding time into their methods. Contrary Thinker does.

In group I said before the open Monday

” Its the bulls market to loss after the higher gap open last week. They have the setup based on volatility modeling for the uptrend to sustain. For many markets it was a breakout above mathematical resistance zones as seen in this featured chart.”

“If the bulls fail to hold new support – aka broken resistance – the same volatility model supports a trend – pro directional – movement in the other direction.”

I concluded that “from a forecaster’s point of view, I suspect a failed breakout and a short-term decline followed by one last rally into the first ten days of March for THE top…”

“From a tactical point of view, it does not matter if we saw the price high last week or if it’s yet to be made on or about March 3-9 because we want to be on the right-hand side of the high for best risk control anyway. Calling top tick is about bragging rights….”

From a big picture point of view, if the bulls want a roaring twenties style blow out, like I said above, this is their moment to shine. With the bullish gaps last week for new highs the case can be made for new breakaway gaps satisfying that group of bulls who are begging for the breakout.”

The iGen will have their own roaring twenties

Where the begging for a blow out is being catered to is in digital currencies. On 2/20/24 in group I said, “After a S-T correction here in Bitcoin, another advance is expected. Market Mapping suggest a rally into the 27th +/- a day followed by a nice correction into March 3-7.

Wow, great call Jack, and it looks like we should be getting that high near term, followed by a decline into that early March period. No fake modesty here, the BTC game is the only game in town at the moment. Its making everyone look good.

Scenario map for Bitcoin 2024

Mapping bitcoin shows that the mood for risk moving higher, making a peak this spring. The map fits with the Astrological events impacting mood to become more introspective in late May when Jupiter enters Gemini.

A major make me great transit is hitting Bitcoin’s natal chart. It began making its approach – see the bar chart –  back in March of 2023, and runs for 594 days. Today itis past its midpoint.

From a traditional calendar charting approach, the Bulls are hoping for the second sub-cycle of a traditional four year cycle to bring prices lower into March this year for a buyable low risk to no risk bottom. However, the radial breakout on its squared chart (shown in the group on the breakout) and its massive relative strength vs anything else, limits the chances of a “healthy” correction until the blow out is over.

With its self made “quality” control vis-à-vis halfling the bulls have a historical reason they say for the boomtimes. That is broadcast to happen this spring. The next generic astrological vent hat will act like a “Crawford Attractor” is exact April 25.  That happens to fit the annual scenario map with peaking action in mid spring.

 

I will be going with mini-maps in the WhatsApp community.

It is FREE to all fee paying members as part of the service.  It is not a chat room, communications is one one from the community to its members and it is not intra day trading or scalping. In fact I am sure many of the membership would like to see more trade ideas.  If you are a Contrary Thinker in good standing  use your WhatsApp phone to connect with me at 760-459-4681, just send me a connection request.

The topping process that started in late 2021 is in its late staging and about as old and thin as it can get

Thus far in MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner, the pattern for a major change of trend here is clear. I can add that from the 1930s to date when Venus-Mars conjunct square Jupiter there is an I-T trend change seven out of nine occurrences. The following featured Gif demonstrates that clearly.

The last time this transit occurred from the same sign was 100 years ago, when according to a study by economist Angus Maddison, China was the world’s largest economy in 1820, accounting for an estimated 32.9% of global GDP. Now us that coincidence with CTs call made just a few weeks ago for a panic bottom being in place for the Shanghai Dow. After a prolonged bear market CT suggested long entry in YINN. Today buy dips and to look for relative strength inside their market for buying opportunities. More on that to follow…

I have shown all the elements of the big topping process, the process no one wants to hear about because it goes beyond the market’s with the business cycle. What makes that rough today is the economy is way in a right-handed translations at the moment. Forcing so much work to do in such a short time, the undoing will be fast and furious. Put another way, the economy lags the market in terms of months before it begins to show signs of contraction. The master business cycle we follow leaves little variance here and the business contraction will hit business almost immediately after the market goes into its bear market mode.

Fine tuning the timing of THE top is seen in the following Gif. Seven of the ten occurrences show up as clear I-T reversals of trend. With two only showing a week or two of hesitation in their ongoing trend and one with a S-T change only.

(click to animate Gif)

Scenario map that fit the reality of what has transpired thus far in 2024

While the bulls are looking for that major blowout from here into mid-spring, Mapping is proving evidence that the major uptrend is about to change. That’s why its called a change of trend (COT), with the current trends will pivot into a down trend lower with a tradable low hitting in the spring.

All of the mapping we have done on the averages and sectors reveal a change of trend in late February into early March. That meshes with the Astro events highlighted in the above gif and others seen in the COT table below.

 

The big banks also a market leader when mapped fits the overall scenario for 2024, with a COT high expected in this time period. However, I see two major declines this year, one now into the spring followed by a rally into summer and another decline larger than the early one unfolding into mid to late October.

For long term investors, Contrary Thinker is off risk since late 2021 suggesting the sale of stocks into rallies and the no risk investment of two to five year t-notes.

Fifty percent discount to select professionals from the “Volatility Reports” private LinkedIn group

Monthly Membership $111.00

Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Many thanks to everyone that has supported this work over the years and thanks in advance to the new members for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

— Privacy Policy, we do not share your information with third parties. Full policy details here. 

0 Comments

Leave A Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

error: Content is protected !!