September 29, 2020

MarketMap2020 Issue #17

The collection of the Twitter posts from Friday and Monday rank sentiment at an extreme bullish level with  72% bulls, 23% equivocal, and  5% bearish, suggesting the buy dip mentality remains for  Smart Monday profit-taking liquidity.

I labeled the equivocation segment based on the content provider simply posting a chart without drawing a concise conclusion while one was intimated, all of them bullish, leaving this contrary thinking indicator at 95% bulls.

Coming into this time window, both MarketMap and Volaltity Reports has put advisors, managers, and traders on alert, that any rally unless it was a momentum surge would stall and the bear market will reassert itself. The rally over the last two trading days were not A/D surges.

In fact, while the old school may be looking at arbitrary definitions of bull, bear, and corrections, what Contrary Thinkers can gain confidence from is the occurrence of any long bar day decline that exceeds the widest one day range since the peak September 2, 2020.

For the cash S&P, a long bar decline greater than 4.4% or 148 points will confirm a long term bear market, for the Nasdaq Comp a range day decline larger than 6% or greater than 670 points from the day high to low, would be long-term bearish.

The current time frame

This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International