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May 10, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#14

When the can is kicked but can go no further, welcome to economic dystopia.

The bull market can only look the other way for so long. Geo-political tensions, democracy under attack, the Feds all talk without an effective “put.”  With two of the largest economies in the world are on the eve of a FX panic you don’t need to be in a mescaline-induced portal or Huxley’s “The Doors of Perception” to see what is coming. With all the influential social media types and information providers, you may need to cut through the fog. But know this, the 1% has a front row seat and its “first in best dressed.”

Wall-Streeter’s do not hear it coming, unless you have a 1%er as a client.

April 5th copy of MarketMap™ pointed out that ” A retrograde in general regarding all planets is a time for reframing their archetypical meaning. It is the influence for retracing, reliving, and rewriting the recent cycle. It creates the affinity for man to observe things from another perspective, for untangling the thoughts and responses of the previous cycle…”

I went on to point out that the markets were entering such a reflective period. I said, “On April 1 the retrograde of Mercury begins, it appears to go slow to stationary; and then appears to go backwards. Its symbolic for our way of thinking and perceiving and communicating. It is the lens through which we perceive and understand our experiences, in this case how the investment community is forming beliefs about the markets.”

While, Mercury retrograde gets a bad rap for being the cause of communication breakdowns, computer failures, delays in transportation (e.g., the Key bridge collapse), But while most scientist find this anecdotal at best and an optical illusion, its relationship to changes in perceptions and problem solving remains.

What is humorous when volatility, and uncertainty in financial, choppy markets are blamed on what they affectionately refer to as “The Trickster.” Something anyone can say about market 40% as that is their nature. With the stock market being the worse of all markets when it comes to one way directional trends at best being 60% of the time. While Mercury in retrograde takes up only 18 percent for the year.

What is more in keeping with the use of this market profiling technique how it consistently  reveals problems because of a  more complete analysis to see what can be revealed about the market. Turn something over and more unfolds.

This cycle shifts mentality so different vantage points can witness more of the story. So, what market observers once thought made perfect sense, is being seen with new eyes. What was once assumed to be truth or fact gives way to alternate realities.

Well the market exits that period of critical thinking on the 9th, and what was predicated as the basis for the bull market before April the 1st, Goldie locks rate cuts, as turned into “if its not broken don’t fix it” with the outlook for rate cuts diminished. Rather a booming US dollar reflecting the Biden fiscal spending on infrastructure. Just not throwing money at the economy but the application of spending that increases real wealth, just not paper asset appreciations.

What technicians hive long known is what fundamentalist surprising can’t get their head around is the competitive nature of the real wealth building economy that competes with paper assets and puts a demand on money mostly in the growth industries’, like AI.

Market Mapping is all about time. As I pointed out over this year thus for how the fractals of all the markets and sectors line up with COT dates that over lap. The two featured in this issue are a good example, highlighting the change of trend expected in early May.

Gold the contrary to equity is clear. Many of my hedge fund buddies see everything as speculative, or a risk takers markets. I agree but only to a degree, but an events like 9/11 may be in gold’s pipeline, only time will tell. One thing for certain, is Wall Street hates gold.

So as we come out of the reflective period associated with the Mercury retrograde, new cycles occurred with the new moon mid week and continue today. When the moon enters Leo it will be opposed to Pluto, whose symbolic meaning is the uncompromising undoing of lies. The Moon (emotions and feelings) in Leo is about the heads of states, and gold opposed to Pluto (lots of hate, if your on the wrong side of it) is in Aquarius which is all about high tech. Do you have the have the picture now, as something in high tech may be overbought, just a wee bit.

The Synodic cycle of Uranus since 2018 is associated with monthly change of trends, with it occurring annually in April and now moving into May from 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022 it marked highs for the month. That is how this week ends and next week begins.

If there is going to be a bearish unexpected event the market gets that over the week end, a rare event for news over a weekend. But On Monday anyway, something out of the blue that sets off the bearish trend.  At the end of the week, on the 17th a new Jupiter cycle has a massive start as it is about to leave the Banker’s sign of Taurus and enter the critically thinking Gemini. The big event is the line up of more than three planets all within a close proximity  – a stellium- in late Taurus. Conjunctions as such is a large negative attractors.

The following week of Sunday the 19th is a week of tidal lows, with lunar Scorpio known for its lows in the Nikkei and the near term lows or larger coming in around the full moon on the 23th.

But as can be seen by the Gold scenario, the big move is not over, with more uptrend into early Summer.

The best fit for the Dow/S&P annual scenario as not been as easy as the bonds, inflation, crudes and rates. But this looks like the go to model thus far and will stick with this one. Astrological profiles of Joe Biden, from a reasonable source, suggest he should take care of his health starting after June 14. Another source looking at the 12/20 year election morbidity events for all past US Presidents spans from June 14 to November 19.

There is some major event that should act as a climatic turning point late June- early July.

Banks are at risk. The demand for credit is pushing rates higher. The international flow of funds is telling the story of where the boom is, and it’s right here in the US of A.

While it’s written all over the face of the regional bank sector, which has remained in a bear market since its high 1/13/2022, the majors like BOA have unmarked Treasuries in their books. As such they like most if not all bulls “extend and pretend” that rates will come down with a minor softening of the economy.

The big S&P bank sector is attempting to recover from the first leg down of a new bear market. Thus far, it lacks the character of a bull and is now overbought without making new highs above the 3/28/24 level. It like the major averages have recovered into both time and price factors that should turn its thinking around.

The notes on the chart provide some of the reasons for the expected pivot today. More on this in Issue #14. out shortly.

What technicians have long known is what fundamentalist surprising can’t get their head around. That is the competitive nature of the real wealth building economy. Simple is that it competes with paper assets and puts a demand on the need for money to grow, and this would apply mostly in the growth industries’, like AI.

Rates are trending higher.

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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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May 7, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#13

 

The question is one of energy.

This market doesn’t have power, it lacks energy. A friend of mine put it this way, like “…electricity requires a current and voltage, so the market requires volume and volatility.” Today’s market has neither.

I pointed out until VIX gets back above 18, which is relatively high for this era, all news events will be spun for the bullish side. Because fear is repressed.

Many if not most bulls are net short VIX to achieve Alpha. Thus, keeping the perception that a bear market is approaching repressed, and this perceived riskless market if it – when it – turns negative it will catch all the short VIX traders vulnerable to “risk of ruin.” Like it has been done since the crash of 1987, when it was only retail traders naked puts on the averages, that brought several firms down. Today, it’s a bigger issue.

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April 30, 2024

MarketMap-2024 Bitcoin

“Bitcoin has transmuted from a bellwether for all risk markets to being the BELL itself sucking all the energy out of the risk taker’s space.”  Volatility Reports 3/6/24

I went on to say, “The featured chart of bitcoin futures and the NYSE trust provide a picture where a S-T high may be near. The daily bar in the futures – right hand side – shows the market in greed driven panic buying from 50k.”

The chart posted at that time, click to enlarge

“The trend has landed in my intermediate resistance zone from 65,927 to 73,898. The one bar clears out day four trading days ago, shook out weak hands, since the market has been trading to move higher with limited success. It may take a new signal from the volatility model to call for a change in trend.

In the LinkedIn group I pointed out the truncated rally from the trainable, leading to a reversal. On Friday I posted “Have a look at the 2024 Scenario map for #Bitcoin in today’s copy of MaketMap-2024, issue#12. That should help put the long-term into perspective.

This chart helps with the short term that calls for a decline to the mid 50s, and that may be modest the way this speculators markets trades. I would put on a trade but not on a Friday where if wrong on Sunday I have no place to offset until 9:30 NYT Monday. Well there is the quick and the dead, and Bitcoin is lower today by 3.5% and the averages in tow.


It remains the fore runner of the mood of big speculators, it is a leading indicator for the Dow and Nasdaq. That relationship has not changed since 2016. Here is the scenario map for Bitcoin, to keep this idea in front of you, please.

Update

The annual map for Bitcoin is a very handy guild to date and the highs coming in now look like that is it for the “what to be currency of the realm.”  It is a market like an other.

The high print was seen 8 days later 3/14/24 at 73,971, just $73 above the I-T breakout zone, aka resistance and failed to hold. From the ATH the market has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, along the way taking out the low end of my I-T support zone at 65,927.

Panic buying, that is irrational behavior started as measured by my Volatility Model at 57,000 and old I-T support at 53,000 until the new month starts. With it new I-T zones, which will be lower. CT doubts if these levels will hold. Long term support, support for 2024 does not start until 15,567.00.

Here is the scenario Map for Bitcoin, which remains unchanged, new timing will be outlined in group and trade ideas on WhatsApp.
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