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April 5, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #8

The Confluence of Major Long Term Cycles 2021

The change of trend (COT) table presented here provides new users the ability to see how – when the market is in a channel – not a forceful trend – can pinpoint the short-term (S-T) high and lows. The most recent being a low-pivot by the Dow on March 25.  The updated table for the new quarter can be found later in the report.

The Time Factor

It took me over twenty years to put together a comprehensive all-reaching investment and trading strategy. A system that combines price analysis by looking at its volatility background for context to get an accurate forecast of market dynamics (published in Volatility Reports).  Adding into the system the study of time, which is a critical factor that most people do not talk about in my technical analysis field, you hear about everything else but cycles. I believe that is because demarcating time for many is like looking at a craze, only ephemeral events with little use.

But it is the time factor that is critical; if you are going to be able to time the market accurately along with its dynamics, you need to time the change of trend (COT) to be accurate and achieve alpha. But if your analysis of the coming dynamics is not valid, your COT could lead to nothing but a flat market. So, context and cycles are essential to complement each other.  …”The Time Factor” continued below

Please Note because of “hyper-correlation,” the COT table pertains to all markets. So as a generality, if the market is advancing into a COT date window, expect a pivot, and if the market is declining into the COT time window, expect a low. The dynamics are predicted via the Technical Event Matrix in the LI group and Volaltity Reports. 

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March 15, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#7

The “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021” will hang like the sword of Damocles over the markets and American politics.

The clamor by the media and the exclamations from the democrats “was loud, clear, and on cue. Perceptions of great news at peaks is the norm. The problem with “great expectations” is they are open to subtle disappointments. Not to mention the practical matter of how the bill is going to be paid for. The bond market is ahead of the rest, they know.  But the key to the story is that 90% of the financial community was breastfed of neo-liberal economics, since 1980. Today their world has been turned upside down, what are they going to do?  continued below.

The current S-T rally from March 4 low into the ATH by Dow and S&P is expected to peak early this week, and once a peak is clearly in place, a fixed interval of four months into the Event-Based cycle low is expected, this is refined later in the publication

The video that follows does a few things. One explains how the change of trend date table is perceived and used. Also, how it ties into the basic plug-in system Tidal Wave.  I also provide an explanation of how the tidal cycles are filtered by CTs trend following pair of moving averages. So the six-minute tutorial explains how to use MarketMap’s COTs and how to combine these time windows when a pivot is expected with other indicators to improve your trading.

Get all seven MarketMap for 2021 plus a 45-day trial of both MarketMap-2021 and Volatility Reports for just $99.00 a one-time charge.

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February 22, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#6

Recap:

  • MarketMap-2018  Issue#1 predicted a constitutional crisis. Over the last five years, it has been like a slow-moving coup. It’s not over yet, given the far rights reaction via their media releases. It is not over yet with the second impeachment trial expected 2/9/21
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February 11, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #5a

Even the well-known contrarians are holding the traditional lines of thought.

The Short Term cycles have played out well; the lows expected in late January came in on the 29th, as seen in the first chart. All three of the major cash indices are at an extreme high in the COT dates as shown in the calendar. Further, the market is in  I-T and S-T resistance zone, the ideal place for a new trade to be put on, aka play the break or fade the gap.

I have posted their trigger levels below on each chart. The current market is set up for a sell signal this week. The unfiltered tidal cycles are expected to flip from today into the 17th. Contrary Thinker is expecting the peak and ATH in that time frame.  I thought we had them on the 14th, but the market quickly repressed the spike in volatility.

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January 31, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #5

The new shining object trying to get everyone’s attention is the “GameStop” short squeeze story and how it will impact the market. The 24-hour news cycle may play with it for a while, but I do not think the story has legs or any relevancy.

While Covid19 is certainly a concern for all of our well being, it is already known, and while it could get worse from a health point of view, it is not going to surprise the market. Volatility Reports will discuss the prime mover this week.
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January 25, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#4

The media is full of sore losers regarding the election of three months ago and the failed insurrection two weeks ago.

I saw a gaggle of them on LinkedIn posting responses how the Biden Admin is moving toward Sovietism, followed by touting Biden will be good for Bitcoin and Crude Oil and Topix Index and Gold.
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January 11, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#3 Donald J Trump the Force of Nature

At the start of 2018, this analyst – Contrary Thinker Saw -Trump as a Force of Nature

I pointed out rhetorically that, “It doesn’t get better than this: ‘Encouraged by the surprise electoral victory of President Donald Trump and his aggressive push for tax cuts and deregulation, the U.S. stock market ended the first-ever “perfect year.” That is, one in which all 12 months featured an advance for the S&P 500 index on a total-return basis.'”

I went on to say that,

“The market is good at discounting fiscal and monetary influences. However, over its history, it is not very good at anticipating Geopolitical events, and their effect.” To date, this is a fact, even though it’s been clear for a decade or more the bubbling civil discontent under society’s surface. Some of which came spewing out on January 6th with fascist rioters attacking the Capital.

In that January 18, 2018 MarketMap I alluded to the 45-year cycle to point out that,

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January 3, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#2 Crying Wolf Don’t Think So

Focus the Decennial 100 (10-year x 10) Year Cycle

Cycles are as basic as Life itself. Life is the best teacher, so when the market does not learn a lesson, Life is right there to repeat it for all the participants to learn it again.

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January 2, 2021

What Contrary Thinker Told its Membership

The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness

Published on: Jan 22, 2020: “All measures of market sentiment are at highs or extreme highs, from put/call ratios to CNN’s greed index, you name it. The outside world’s focus for this outright giddy disposition and  talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values focuses on the following four elements…” Read it here. 

Set up by the mini Russell provides engagement today

Published on: Feb 18, 2020 “The background is near ideal for the Rusell to begin a rapid decline into March. The long and intermediate-term volatility background is fearless TE#2, supporting a break or trend following a move that will get carried over. The daily bar shows last Friday being a failure to hold its breakout on the regular bar and a close below “new support.”  Such negligence is a sell signal, and its background supports an expansion of the high to low range.” See the charts here. 

February 12 Historical Top

Published on: Feb 24, 2020  “A peak here in mib February has its own pattern, as discussed in the previous MarketMap. I will comment on the future as the market extends its decline past the first full week of March if it retains the character of a bear market beginning, not a correction in an ongoing bull…”

“…The bottom line is a decline in MarketMap’s next calendar COT date of March 9-10.”  See the brief here. 

brains

There is no outside world, there are only people, a society, and the market

Published on: Feb 24, 2020  Everyone knows why they just don’t know when. Except for Contrary Thinker that knows when the “fragility” of the market exist and warns its clients; every day since Contrary Thinker’s MarketMap-2018 said the first risk-off signal on January 26, 2018, the finger was firmly pointed at no ability to foster a “soft landing” when the time comes. see the charts here. 

The new decade of market timing is here after 13 years of being out of favor. Get ahead of the trends. It’s inexpensive to join and expensive to discard for any reason.  
MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.
Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2018

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

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November 25, 2020

Same Ol’ Same Ol’ Don’t Think So

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