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March 15, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#7

The “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021” will hang like the sword of Damocles over the markets and American politics.

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February 22, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#6

Recap:

  • MarketMap-2018  Issue#1 predicted a constitutional crisis. Over the last five years, it has been like a slow-moving coup. It’s not over yet, given the far rights reaction via their media releases. It is not over yet with the second impeachment trial expected 2/9/21
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February 11, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #5a

Even the well-known contrarians are holding the traditional lines of thought.

The Short Term cycles have played out well; the lows expected in late January came in on the 29th, as seen in the first chart. All three of the major cash indices are at an extreme high in the COT dates as shown in the calendar. Further, the market is in  I-T and S-T resistance zone, the ideal place for a new trade to be put on, aka play the break or fade the gap.

I have posted their trigger levels below on each chart. The current market is set up for a sell signal this week. The unfiltered tidal cycles are expected to flip from today into the 17th. Contrary Thinker is expecting the peak and ATH in that time frame.  I thought we had them on the 14th, but the market quickly repressed the spike in volatility.

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January 31, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #5

The new shining object trying to get everyone’s attention is the “GameStop” short squeeze story and how it will impact the market. The 24-hour news cycle may play with it for a while, but I do not think the story has legs or any relevancy.

While Covid19 is certainly a concern for all of our well being, it is already known, and while it could get worse from a health point of view, it is not going to surprise the market. Volatility Reports will discuss the prime mover this week.
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January 25, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#4

The media is full of sore losers regarding the election of three months ago and the failed insurrection two weeks ago.

I saw a gaggle of them on LinkedIn posting responses how the Biden Admin is moving toward Sovietism, followed by touting Biden will be good for Bitcoin and Crude Oil and Topix Index and Gold.
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January 11, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#3 Donald J Trump the Force of Nature

At the start of 2018, this analyst – Contrary Thinker Saw -Trump as a Force of Nature

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January 3, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Issue#2 Crying Wolf Don’t Think So

Focus the Decennial 100 (10-year x 10) Year Cycle

Cycles are as basic as Life itself. Life is the best teacher, so when the market does not learn a lesson, Life is right there to repeat it for all the participants to learn it again.

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January 2, 2021

What Contrary Thinker Told its Membership

The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness

Published on: Jan 22, 2020: “All measures of market sentiment are at highs or extreme highs, from put/call ratios to CNN’s greed index, you name it. The outside world’s focus for this outright giddy disposition and  talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values focuses on the following four elements…” Read it here. 

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November 25, 2020

Same Ol’ Same Ol’ Don’t Think So

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November 5, 2020

MarketMap2021 Issue #1 the Long Cycle

THE 45-YEAR MARKET CYCLE
Some power work comes from independent scholars and academic types when it comes to isolating cycles. There are many used in text and published in trade journals most of which have a strong rationale behind them but few that show real empirical occurrences.

The long cycles are grossly overlooked for a few reasons. It’s clear the industry promotes to their own ends that timing does not work. Also, not in their interest is the long cycle does not contribute much to their transactional models.

The problem with the long cycle is it is difficult to pinpoint their exact top and the topping process can take a year or two. Just like the 2007 peak among others. Leaving aside the topping process, cycles are critical to your financial wellbeing among other things.

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