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January 16, 2022

MarketMap2022 Issue #3

A “bear market” is a decline of more than 20%. Preceded by a bull market of more than 20%.

The “New School of Technical Analysis” has moved beyond arbitrary definitions.

MarketMap-2022 Scenario Planner will focus on similar expectations based on peaks with near-identical tidal extremes during the same seasonal period.

The seasonal bracket is the best fit for Dow Jones Industrial peaks from

December 11 to January 15.

Bull market peaks that occur in December or January produce a seasonal pattern that repeats itself. Seasonal patterns, for example, similar intervals from top to a panic low. Plus, they produce two AOD (long bars) declines that occur at a fixed interval as well. These mid-winter seasonal peaks have also been followed by geopolitical events that have caused financial distress in the markets. This latter point is critical as the market does not anticipate national security events well.

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December 30, 2021

MarketMap-2022 Issue #2

Both fiscal and monetary policy has always been able to “re-inflate” the economy and markets out of trouble. Throughout 2021 the consensus in this regard is they are painted into a corner.

There is your back story for your clients, but the catalysts remain unknown. It will not be a piece of known bad news.

Can math be stranger than fiction? Or is the following simply a coincidence, if coincidence can exist at all?

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November 27, 2021

MarketMap 2022 Annual Scenario Planner

The most obvious synchronicities of historical events happen at the
beginning of the cycle.
Times when change becomes unavoidable

The first topic I want to highlight here is that the history of the stock market in the states does not start with 1950, which is all I read from the “information” providers regarding their statistics. As if the baby boom was going to last forever, which peaked in 1968. Or, the 100 years of market history that preceded the post WW2 boom was somehow transcended after the 1949 low by a superior emotional intellect.

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September 30, 2021

MarketMap Issue#15

The 90-year Cycle is one of Grim Awakenings

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September 19, 2021

MarketMap2021 Issue #14

A major test of the cubby bear market is expected this week. The downtrend that started in the Dow on August 16 needs to invert the shortest cycle lows due early this week, in order for the bear to be for real and a forceful trend.

Trends are aberrations.  For a pro-directional move to take place ( i.e., the market was down yesterday means it will be down today and that will be followed by a down day tomorrow, etc) the market must break the cycle to one smaller degree.

MarketMap™-2021 pointed out in the last issue that “tidal forces tend to keep the low and highs trading in two weeks from low to high and two weeks back to a low.” This is a natural occurrence that all investors and traders observe daily. It is a four-week peak to peak cycle and a four-week cycle from low to low.

It should be intuitive and obvious that during up trends the high pivots become inverted – may only last a day or less and during meaningful declines the low pivots last only a day or less, aka cycle inversion.

From the peak in the Dow on the 16th of August – a tidal low was expected- and since that inversion, each row in the table is highlighted in red denoting a downtrend.  The high on the 7th of September happened for the FANG and Nasdaq pointing cycles lower into the next COT due early this week, the 20th.

Here is the key if …

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August 6, 2021

MarketMap2021 Issue #13

The market has loved gridlock, but that is about to change.

For trends to occur, they must break the cycle. Tidal forces tend to keep the low and highs trading in a two-week span from low to high and two weeks back to a low.  HERE, the COT table purports that a high pivot is setting up today, with the 8th being a high probability date for a COT***. So today or Monday would be the interference.

September is

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July 5, 2021

MarketMap2021 Issue #12

Brutal Reality Check Expected

If you believe in Technical Analysis, your working assumption has to be that form (the market) precedes substance (media rationalization or the extra market news). No, the market is NOT a discounting mechanism. News event – hundreds are being presented daily via social news feeds to community blogs from Zero Hedge to Seeking Alpha. Contrary to Thinker’s looks at price context and the time factor, everything else is a “Back Story,” the sizzle, not the steak.

Today social media pundits and providers of market data are in utter amazement. They have never seen their event-based analogies break so many records. The headlines are streaming ” never have we seen…”  For example, no dips quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily exceeding all previous extremes among every observer that provides content in the social domain, but they remain optimistic. For the economic and media event-based bears, their story is the “same old same old,” with accessive debt being the primary issue and a crashing dollar and a gold rush. The bulls pointing to a reflation after the pandemic shut down will grow the market out of any problem.  The news background has not changed much over the last four years.

Overvaluation, no fiscal or monetary tools to assist in a soft landing when the next downturn happens to the competition coming from China.

The debate seems to be over inflation. Is it a problem or not, is the relation trade-off, or will it get out of hand? The messages are confusing to investors.  Here is an example:

Inflation May Have Peaked, Killing The Reflation Trade

“The reflation trade may have just died a horrible death on June 10. The CPI reading came in at 5% year-over-year, ahead of estimates for 4.7%. But despite the hotter than expected reading, bond yields continued to slide. Despite months of hotter than expected inflationary data points, bond yields have been moving lower, and breakeven inflation expectations are now plunging as well.”

Smart money is talking with their pocketbooks with a concern about either tail risk, both deflation, and hyperinflation—more on that below.

In the  LinkedIn group space, I pointed out last week how the market tipped its hand from the beginning of 2021 as irrational in the same way that it made its peak in late January 2018 and late February 2020.

I understand that many Technicians base their work on the premise that all market activity – is irrational (aka fear and greed), excluding the lone Technician. However, I have found that many technical analysts are heard, thinkers. As a rule, they are social animals. Be that as it may, my Technical Event Model (TEM) provides a clear insight into the buying and selling motivation: TEM tells me if market action is rational or emotional and when it reaches an extreme. With the irrational signals being rare on the long-term bars, they are more important when they do happen, at both tops and bottoms.

As stated from the beginning of the year, near 30,000 Dow, the buying became irrational and, on that basis, will be easy to flip as it is grounded in fear of missing out, aka greed. Hence these buyers will be guided by their account balances as they drawdown instead of a rational technical reason to be an owner.

From the start of the year – see the eBook “Time Factor” I have outlined the big cycles that have crammed themselves into this period 2021-2022, and the point they are cresting as this publication is being written over the 4th of July holiday weekend. With the background, the context of the market primed for a reversal of trend in the first six months of 2021 is now all about the critical Time Factor. The 245-248 years of the beginning of this glorious country, which by the way, is a critical returning cycle as well.

One of the primary large cycles is the 90/45 year cycle, which I will not rehash here. But there is no coincidence that when the numbers 1 through 9 are added, as in Pythagorean theory, they add up to 45 or that the 360 degrees in a circle are eight 45 degrees.

The current time window is the same as 1931-1932 and 1975-76, one period of deflation and the other of stagflation, the former left-hand tail risk, and the later right-hand tail risk.

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June 1, 2021

MarketMap2021 Issue #10 w/Chart Gallery

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May 3, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #10

Too many laugh when they read ” Sell in May and Walk Away.”

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April 5, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #8

The Confluence of Major Long Term Cycles 2021

The change of trend (COT) table presented here provides new users the ability to see how – when the market is in a channel – not a forceful trend – can pinpoint the short-term (S-T) high and lows. The most recent being a low-pivot by the Dow on March 25.  The updated table for the new quarter can be found later in the report.

The Time Factor

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