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February 27, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#7

If Fractals exist in nature do they have to exist in humans behavior as well?

Good technical analysis is grounded on truths, and for that reason incorporates time and price into the formula, it is not form alone. Ironically we call Technical Analysis market timing yet few technician’s have methods for folding time into their methods. Contrary Thinker does.

In group I said before the open Monday

” Its the bulls market to loss after the higher gap open last week. They have the setup based on volatility modeling for the uptrend to sustain. For many markets it was a breakout above mathematical resistance zones as seen in this featured chart.”

“If the bulls fail to hold new support – aka broken resistance – the same volatility model supports a trend – pro directional – movement in the other direction.”

I concluded that “from a forecaster’s point of view, I suspect a failed breakout and a short-term decline followed by one last rally into the first ten days of March for THE top…”

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February 9, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner #6

Tao - WikipediaMy Tao to beat the markets, In a man made universe study man, not the universe.

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Mapping of investors attitudes for the 2024 points to how keen people are on risk taking, no matter the vehicle. In other words, “Safety? don’t be absurd, why should I get 4% without risk when I can make three times in a few days or weeks.”

In our LinkedIn group I use the front end of the annual scenario planner for the chart shown here to time the current bull move in Bitcoin. In our  group I said on Thursday, “Bito continues to lead the stocks, by weeks at this point. The long term 2024 map is in issue #7 on the way, here is the front part of it for the short-term trading time element support.”  (Bito is 2x bullish Bitcoin etf.)

 

I will have to concede to the bulls for now and may even play the long side, until its over. But the in step one to one correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P has long since faded. The bellwether nature of Bitcoin remains but as it revealed back in August 2023 through the end of October 2023 the name brand of cryptocurrencies can have a massive rally while Nasdaq and friends have a S-T correction.

So the bull run here in BTC may well spill over into the Stock averages, at some point. But,  it will not be before a nasty I-T correction of the NYSE members and Nasdaq.

What follows are the scenario maps for Bitcoin, bonds and inflation in 2024 and more.

 

If you are a visitor to the Volatility Reports LinkedIn group and think the chart to the left is a rabbit I pulled out of my hat, it will not matter when your free look runs out, will it.

Below are the opening odds for Super Bowl 58., With the 49ers tipped to win it all.

Super Bowl spread: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Super Bowl Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (+102) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-120)
Super Bowl total: Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)

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February 8, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner All Issues to Date

News Events preceding the open have rallied prices into the tidal high due today.

Since the lows precisely 135 days ago (three cycles) the bulls have controlled the narrative, running the thin Globex session into the side-by-side day session’s opening liquidity. Allowing them to exit their longs on a day trade. Easy come easy go. No matter the news, its spin and the bulls have it going into Tuesday’s open, March 12, 2024.

However, intermediate and long-term timing is not on their side. On top of the highly reliability tidal cycles posted up their regular S-T highs now there is more timing evidence the end is near.

The lead featured chart in issue #9 reflects the uptrend from the October 2023 low when this most recent phase of advance began. It was teed off by the opposite of the events hitting today. So, a 180* degree cycle has run its course into the late February mid-March segment.

This dis-inflationary aspect has run its cycle and in the same period the third 45-day cycle puts the market on a change March 10. Yet it is the magnitude in a primary cycle tied to large intermediate term change of trend dates that will reverse the uptrend.

All issues for 2024 are available here…

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