November 5, 2020

MarketMap2021 Issue #1 the Long Cycle

THE 45-YEAR MARKET CYCLE
Some power work comes from independent scholars and academic types when it comes to isolating cycles. There are many used in text and published in trade journals most of which have a strong rationale behind them but few that show real empirical occurrences.

The long cycles are grossly overlooked for a few reasons. It’s clear the industry promotes to their own ends that timing does not work. Also, not in their interest is the long cycle does not contribute much to their transactional models.

The problem with the long cycle is it is difficult to pinpoint their exact top and the topping process can take a year or two. Just like the 2007 peak among others. Leaving aside the topping process, cycles are critical to your financial wellbeing among other things.

This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International