CT Journals
National Security
January 22, 2023
The Back Story Buzz
The documents with classification markings spanned Mr Biden’s time in the Senate and the vice-presidency, while the notes dated to his time as vice-president. An FBI search of US President Joe Biden’s home has turned up six additional documents containing classification markings, with agents also taking possession of some of his notes, the president’s lawyer says. The search comes more than a week after six other classified documents were […]
Rep. Swalwell Accuses Speaker McCarthy Of “Political Vengeance” Over Planned Committee Removal
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) holds that he did nothing wrong in his associations with a suspected Chinese spy and that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) vow to remove him from his committee assignments was an act of “political vengeance.”
US judge fines Donald Trump and his lawyer $1.3 million for ‘frivolous’ Clinton lawsuit
A Florida judge has ordered former US president Donald Trump and one of his attorneys to pay more than $1 million for filing what he says was a bogus lawsuit against Trump’s 2016 rival Hillary Clinton and others.
- A Florida judge accused Donald Trump of a “pattern of abuse of the courts” for filing frivolous lawsuits for political purposes
- Mr Trump had filed suits against Hillary Clinton, former top FBI officials and the Democratic Party
Jim Jordan’s Reckless New Committee
Click here to view original web page at Jim Jordan’s Reckless New Committee
The creation of a House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government portends an all-too-predictable and largely unproductive cycle of interbranch friction. (The name itself betrays that the panel has already concluded that the executive branch misused its resources.) It will start with overheated demands for information. The committee’s chair, Representative Jim Jordan, has said the wide-ranging probe would include the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago for documents that Donald Trump failed to return to federal authorities, the Department of Homeland Security probe of disinformation on social media, and the origins of investigations by the FBI and other federal agencies into contacts between the Russian Federation and the Trump campaign in 2016. The Biden administration will comply with some requests while resisting others. Republicans will denounce recalcitrance as a coverup. Fox News, for its part, will condemn any lack of transparency as Democratic hypocrisy. Democrats, in turn, will remind Americans that Jordan refused to speak to the January 6 Committee.
Fed Trap: Stock Market Won’t Rise Until Rates Drop, Rates Won’t Drop Unless Market Slides
The economy and the stock market are stuck in a circular loop, preventing the resumption of meaningful growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been doing what it can to try and talk the stock market lower since late 2021, with a goal of reducing wealth-generated spending pressure on inflationary imbalances. For many months, the Fed has even been hinting at the necessary pretext for a pivot in interest rate policy from a rising (tightening credit) to falling regime (expanding liquidity), namely a bigger equity decline on Wall Street. The problem is Fed attempts to talk down prices and valuations are not getting much traction.
September 16, 2020
Top HHS spokesman accuses CDC staffers of ‘sedition’ over coronavirus: report
“The top spokesman at Health and Human Services accused scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of “sedition” for their response to the coronavirus pandemic and warned people to buy guns and ammo because an insurrection led by Democrats could start on Inauguration Day if President Trump refuses to “stand down,” according to a report Monday.”
Health and Human Services Spokesman Michael Caputo
Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images
The outside world: Is there help for the markets (aka the new economy) coming from congress? ” Morgan Stanley No Longer Sees A Fiscal Stimulus Deal Before The Election
Contrary Thinking Starts Here
January 22, 2020
The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness
All measures of market sentiment are at highs or extreme highs, from put/call ratios, to CNN’s greed index, you name it. The outside worlds focus for this outright giddy disposition and talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values focuses on the following four elements:
“First, the US and China are likely to reach a “phase-one” deal that would at least temporarily halt any further escalation of their trade and technology war.”
“Second, despite the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s election on December 12, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has at least managed to secure a tentative “soft Brexit” deal with the EU, and the chances of the UK crashing out of the bloc have been substantially reduced.”
“Third, the US has demonstrated restraint in the face of Iranian provocations in the Middle East, with President Donald Trump realizing that surgical strikes against that country could result in a full-scale war and severe oil-price spike.”
“And, lastly, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other major central banks have gotten ahead of geopolitical headwinds by easing monetary policies. With central banks once again coming to the rescue, even minor “green shoots” – such as the stabilization of the US manufacturing sector and the resilience of services and consumption growth – have been taken as a harbinger of renewed global expansion.”
However Contrary Thinker feels, if there is an outside world that impacts the mood of the market, the one factor that brings the greatest amount of uncertainty and the most difficult to quantify is this guy, “Donald John Trump.” He is a force of nature that brings the greatest amount of unknowable effects.
In a few words the “deconstruction of the administrative state;” destroying the international order that the US and its allies created after WWII;” “the provoking rather than supporting US Asian allies, such as Japan and South Korea;” the impeachment process and trial that will lead to bipartisan warfare, and providing the ROOSEVELTIAN Democrats running for their party nomination a policy platform that financial markets find unnerving plus a regime change on the first Tuesday of November 2020.
The extreme bullish sentiment pointed most market observers are aware of will be hard to change mentality even when there is a 10% to 20% correction. The majority of analyst I read and hear in the media say the extreme bullish outlook will be toned down with only a mild correction.
To the contrary, the linier mentality is here to stay providing the needed liquidity for profit taking and the mind-set will be buying dips throughout 2020, until some type of climatic low.
These headlines highlight what not to expect. Market (price) based models foreshadow a greater than average bear market over the average time span of historical bear markets.
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker Since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020
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June 10, 2019
My Alternate for a roaring 1929 style end to it all: “This Bubble’s Gonna Be A Big One… Real Big”
Last Friday, when discussing the potential consequences of what would happen if the Fed cuts rates, and why BofA believes that such an act would represent a huge risk to the market and economy, is that following the May slump, the foundations for the S&P rising to 3,000 in […]
Volatility Reports published this alternative chart on May 4, 2019.
With a change of trend date occurring now and prices advancing into them, a peak here is necessary for the 1929 style rally into the autumn to remain an alternative. and for prices to continue their May-Walk-Away.
