September 25, 2018

New Highs Majority see a Breakout

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Stock Index Futures

On 9.12.18 in the TMT community, I posted: “The TEM set up gives way for the bulls to kick off an uptrend here with a Rule #2 background for the short term. If they do not take the opportunity, the bears should have their way. ”

The point of our volatility modeling was the market’s ability to trend. It did and made new highs in the process.  In the chart above the set up preceded “ii” on the chart.

The broader averages and big caps are now entering the late September COT time windows pointed to in Monday’s “Volatility Report.”

The Dow futures chart here provides the same picture of the S&P, an ending Diagonal Triangle.  It remains a valid pattern unless it breakouts above the pattern. From here what is expected as dull trade, a small decline for “b” and a small rally for “c” to finish off the 5th wave.

We often see a very sharp reversal after completion of the Ending Diagonal Pattern especially when EDT is a bigger wave (5) of the main trend, which is the case here – it is an ending fifth wave from the 2009 low. Therefore its effect will not be muted as if the pattern was in an inner wave (v) of bigger (3).


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