“No Free Lunch” Milton Friedman
June 24, 2022
June 24, 2022
“The times they are a changing”
I have pointed out that good market research provides insights into the change of trend (time) and dynamics of the trend (context) and direction of the change (price). The problem comes when the market’s vibration (oscillation) changes. When an expected low happens but from a strategy point of view you have tightened up your profit-stops protecting profits yet have to provide a smaller profit as opposed to taking a larger profit when the change was expected.
The problem is – as you will see in the chart- at some point when the trend is expected to change point (in terms of time, price and dynamics instead it will be an acceleration point, which is what we are in the game to capitalize on. In other words to max out the profits.
CT pointed out going into this week – with a redraft and update regarding one-day wonders and suggested the COT should produce a rally and potentially a one-day wonder. The market gave us what we expected and in panic buying, (poor) right into MarketMap’s change dates expected next week.
The featured chart here shows the 60-year cycle side by side. Moreover, the way a bear dies is when investors are throwing stock away at any price. I’ve highlighted that in the 1962 chart. That capitulation has yet to happen in 2022.
And no humankind has not evolved beyond being human and it will happen again. What the 2022 bear market has done is cashed in 14% or higher in profits while not getting the media’s full negative attention or the public’s with the AAII cash vs stock holdings is still near historical lows.
This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International