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November 28, 2023

Volatility Reports 11/28/23

Today’s forecast is for Change

The same ole same ole we had hope to see change with the start of the fourth quarter started on October 27, 2023

With the no look back rally, from the late October low into the two COT dates November 15 and 24 is what trends are made of and expect more of in 2024. Because things change. 2018 was a wide trading range year, 2017 was the lowest volatility market in history, a slow narrow ranged uptrend, is one clear example. The current year has been noteworthy for frustrating trends, false starts in both directions. Last year saw tradable trends into the fiscal year end.

For new readers, the rule of alternation is an abstract universal truth. When applied in the real world, I use manmade demarcations to apply the rule.

Current Bullish Majority

My insight into the current bullish theme of lower rates to come since the Fed has ended their inflation fight does not make sense. The same holds true in the EU, their bullish news drop is the same. But what does make sense regarding their rationalization is that the central banks will have to go back to rate increasing if investors and traders bet on such monetary loosening. I’ll let you finish the logic.

The bullish majority like the idea that the Fed is finished with its rate hike campaign. Yet, yesterday’s big rally in the bonds back to 116 was greeted with little interest in the equity markets as it diverged across the board with dull trade to end the day lower.

The bulls who clamored for the bearish risk on USD, have that as well with the buck still in its short term (S-T) decline.

What is amazing, and I do not use that word lightly, is how all the markets are in remarkably similar looking bar chart patterns. Wedges to be precise. The bar chart of the bonds notes and rates are in the last few bars of an ending diagonal, which looks identical to the one marked out by the Dow and S&P.

Given the extreme bullish sentiment being registered across all bull/bear polling and the CNN greed and fear index, this set up is calling for a reversal. Once you add the time element into the outlook the reversal is imminent, as in today with the MarketMap™ 2023 posting up a COT on the 27th +/- 2 days.

When you bake into the mix what the risk taker’s actions are saying, the outlook is a bellringer.

The remaining element is the CONTEXT all the above exists in. This is not an abstract notion with little application in the real world. We all consider that context to be the news, the media events that are circulated daily, purported to be what the stock market is moving about. What our context is has nothing to do with these outside events. They are technical, they are part of the market, the language of the market. Hence it is called the Technical Event Matrix (TEM.)

The last comment Contrary Thinker posted in this week’s letter related that the averages on a short-term basis had reached a “…TE#3. That background trends persistent but old, feeble, and ready for a reversal.”  Monday’s market persisted in that dull framework and has persisted another night; and all the above folds into place calling for a reversal in the current period. TEM does not need to reach one of the two other extremes (TE#2 or TE#4) to set up a higher rate of change (ROC) or volatility breakout.  More on that will follow, after the reversal.

 

Most of the sentiment numbers you see comes from polls and surveys. Thats all good, but actions “speak louder” and nothing speaks any louder than the Bitcoin market with its millionaire making enticements. It is the premier market for risk takers, as such it reflects the temperament toward risk taking.

In a sentence it is a leading market indicator. Here in this LinkedIn space, we have seen this to be the case repeatedly, giving no less than a same day change with the equity markets. But in the majority a leading signal. It clearly preceded the Dow & Co’s advance from the 10/27/23 low when BTC kicked off its high ROC advance from its 10/13/23 low.

Today that advance has completed. I noted the setup for Bitcoin in this space over the last two weeks to be in a terminal move and that the new recovery highs would mark its finish. All of that is done and a breakdown is expected here.

No hedge here, but one more new recovery high inside the ending diagonal wedge does not negate anything.

Once a year deep discount

 

Sixty Five Percent discount semi annual, new guys and gals only,

Keep this rate for as long as you want. 

 

 

Sixty Five Percent discount for annual, new guys and gals only,

keep this rate for as long as you want. 

 

 

Contrary Thinker’s Membership Levels

Insuring your future in the global equity markets.

 

Team Level One (Junior partner) $99,995.00. 

Three-day personal meeting (Palm Springs CA or Mooloolaba Beach QLD, Aust.) Non-compete and non-disclosure agreement required. One-year mentorship.

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Global market research publications: MarketMap-2023 Astro Scenario planner and “Volatility Reports”. Membership includes one on one mentorship and TradeStation addons of indicators used in Volatility Reports. Quarterly $539.00, Semi-annual $939.00, Annual $1689.00

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Global market research publications: MarketMap-2023 Astro Scenario planner and “Volatility Reports”. Quarterly $495.00, Semi-annual $849.00, Annual $1494.00,

Membership Addon, TradeStation™ Advanced Trader’s Package (ATP) all indicators used in newsletters for $195.00/year

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Advanced Trader’s Package (ATP) All indicators used in publications, good forever locked code. Include TEM, indicators, and user functions. $2,495.00

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The system of the month club

$45/month, $445 paid annually.

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***All levels of membership include a LinkedIn support group, the “Strategy Collective” for Trade Station systems, indicators, and code. “Volatility Reports” LinkedIn group for real time market analysis and commentary. ***

Only one profit sharing criteria is set for each ETF and Long Put/Call trades
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Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

 

 

November 26, 2023

Volatility Reports 11/27/23

” The current COT that the Map is looking for fits with the next major astrological event, the Crawford Attractor due on the 24th of November.  There are several cycles that peak here. The COT calendar covers most of them. Plus, the tidal cycle – solar/lunar has a low tide this weekend. With nearly all markets in a rally phase into this date, it will be a change from up to down.”

MarketMap™ 2023 Scenario Planner #20 11/22/23

Today, Monday November 27, cycles are due to change. As stated last week, the cycles are due today for a bottom, but that is impossible. Because the trend has been higher into today.

The last Crawford event on November 14 caused a breakout long bar advance into that date followed by a change to a sideways range. Today’s is expected to be a high pivot

Along with the time element pulling prices higher into the close on Friday, price has traced out an ending wedge, which is a weak formation.  I showed this chart last week, based on traditional bar chart work, at least the S-T uptrend is finished here.

To give today’s opening for the last week of November a complete workup, Volatility Report has traced out a textbook change of trend pattern. It is a common occurrence for first a panic reading followed by a one-way trade in the same direction of the initial panic bar.  If you are working with TEM for TradeStation, when the TMT-4Rules indicator signals a TE#1 and the market does not form a pivot reversal within a day, the next reading by the volatility model is important. While 90% of the time there is a pivot, now we want to see the TE#1 followed by the low volatility trend reading the TE#3. That background trend persistent but old, feeble, and ready for a reversal.

 

The rationale behind the markets advance remains the Fed and rate policy. It goes like this, ” Today’s Fed meeting minutes hit home how close the Fed is to the end of this high-rate saga.  In other words, 5% rates on cash won’t stick around forever. And usually when rates peak in a cycle, it’s better to buy stocks than stash your cash.”

Tactic, in mid-October, shorting I exited all bearish trades and have been aside the markets except the four listed here. I suspect that will change this week. If you just want to receive alerts when I am generating trade alerts, it is only $10/month to the app provider, Trade Exchange.

If you look at the details of the trade, as you see the entry and exit wrapper in the above trades, and it is a winner by a stated margin, I do receive an incentive feed equally to $1 for each 1% profited, always with a pre-determined inactive by Contrary Thinker.

For example, I have a goal of 33% on UGL – the Gold ETF, with an incentive of $25 if a return is made of 25% ob. If it is stopped for a lesser profit, there is no incentive.

One time set up fee of $10 to gain access to my channel. 

 

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

 

 

October 29, 2023

Volatility Reports 10/30/23

Sounds like they have all gone bottom fishing

Which is rich for that is one of the riskiest bits of advice you can give. Here is a narrow-minded comment by a firm that have its face all over the financial news,

“…And finally, Healthcare. This sector has been forgotten about. I would encourage all investors to zoom out. Large-cap Healthcare is in a long-term secular uptrend. Just because it’s gone sideways for 2 years doesn’t change that.”

That was said after Friday’s close. He likes that sector because it is going down less than average.

Their brief was exclusively based on the use of relative strength to pick sectors.

But that is not going to work early in a bear market.  While they point to sentiment being at extremely bearish polling in their attempt to be contrarians, they are all bullish in their publications.  Here are a few of their suggestions.

“An undercut of a prior important low when a market is extended to the downside often turns into a short-term reversal; there is no sign of that yet ”

“The average year for the S&P 500 (since 1950) bottoms today.”

“The bull market’s first 10% drop. Before you bail, remember that seven out of the last 10 bulls dealt with at least one 10%+ drop in the first two years. This is normal.”

“AAII bears highest since early May. Not overly surprising given the weakness. Be aware it is late Oct historically when things tend to turn around. Looking at previous years up >10% at the end of June shows indigestion the past few months is normal. But things turn here.”

What else is clear is how a bear market creeps up on the majority.

This analysis of a competitor’s service fits their way of seeing the market here: ” We’re over three and half months into a stock market correction that I keep being told is just the beginning of a major crash. I’m just not seeing it.”

From an experiential point of view, being contrary is not about being different. It’s about knowing that the majority focus on the averages, like you’ve just read above – since 1950 etc. Being contrary is knowing that to be exceptional, you must look for the exceptions not the rules. As the kids say, “you find your power than you rock it.” You find out what you’re good at and you excel at it. Being contrary is waiting for the exceptional and taking it to the bank…

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