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June 15, 2021

Volatility Reports Bonds 6/15/2021

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope, or as a . 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market” James Carville

In the previous group post and blog post, I pointed out how interest rate cycles are regular and reliable. I pointed out as well that the fear that rates are moving higher had not abated since the initial run higher and that implied fear data reveals a coiling up of the data denoting frustration and confusion by the market regarding the viability of inflation.

Our model suggested a rapid and sudden movement in this data, and while I pointed out that “Volatility modeling is direction neutral, it tells the investor/trader, in this case, to trade the break, to trade the trend following signals. As noted above, TY rates have given a bullish signal on the rates.”

In our LinkedIn Group, I said ” TY is in a cluster of resistance as mentioned previously in this space. The 132.68 price if broken is a reversal trigger until the last Friday of June. Contrary Thinker’s bias is bearish for reasons outlined before and suggests TYO or shorting the nearby futures.

The market after implied volatility spiked lower ending its counter-trend of complacency, the government bonds sold off and the ten-year notes broke below 132.20, the low side of I-T (monthly) resistance, a failure sell signal.

In the Chart Gallery below the first chart shows clearly the drain of liquidity according to the Fed, and that drain is from the reopening of the REAL economy, inflation caused by none monetary reasons, like supply chain problems and drought.

The next three charts in the Gallery are about commodity-based inflation, which the majority believe what the Fed has said is “temporary.” Contrary Thinker is bullish on commodities from the March 2020 low.

CT’s chart of the 30-year T-bonds shows a massive failure. The 4 1/2 year cycle that has been posting up timely cycle lows has failed to do so with the last sequence of bottoms expected in early 2020 that produced a one-week wonder followed by a bear market. This left-hand translated cycle points to the next low series of S-T lows at the end of July, mid-October, and early December of this year.

The market has moved below its long-term moving averages and the pair of MAs have made a death cross, calling for more downtrend.  Long Term support sones in from 134 to 147^19.

Trade Idea

Suggested trade TMVDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares. Buy TMV at 71 ob, stop 66 with a profit target of 120, the low side of L-T resistance. I-T Volatility model is a fresh TE#2 supporting a forceful trend.

Stop, listen and learn. Don’t let time get by you.

The “time factor” provided in MarketMap™ will be critical to keeping you and your clients on the front foot. The New Era of Market Timing is Here. Get the full picture with this 45 day trial with CT’s eBook of cycles.  

Chart Gallery Reflecting Pressure for Higher interest Rates. Bond Buyers will Demand it.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

June 10, 2021

Volatility Reports 6/10/21

Major Change of Trend (COT) Time Window June 11 +/-2 days

COT’s are price and time-based events that apply to all markets; hence investors and traders should expect “hyper-correlation.” The outside world event may be dramatic and out of the blue, what the media calls Technical.

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March 31, 2021

Volatility Reports Bonds 3/31/2021

Just like most people by nature, I look for the truth. Yet today, it is flattering to see others finally talking in the same terms I found critical years ago, like the timing of market dynamics based on market context.

Like the following “When we get these types of extended moves away from the 200-day MA in the 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX, we historical get a period of sideways action following”  Well, someone predicting the timing of a market condition, a trading range.

But the 80% deviation above the 200 MA as the indicator of a sideways market vs. a correction from the event is being based on the functionality of an oscillator.

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March 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 3/4/21

The Dollar Is Dead; Long Live The Dollar

There are so many false theories and narratives about the dollar and other assets; they are not worth debunking. Advisors and managers should consider the source and the underlying assumptions used to propagate and regurgitate social media content.

To cut through the fog of misinformation, Contrary Thinker listens to the market. The two middle chart windows contain our I-T trend following systems both on buy signals in terms of direction. What gives the most recent buy signal some punch is Technical Event Model’s (TEM) setup.  The weekly bar has %C on a spike, causing a technical event #2, calling for a dynamic trend. The chart on the left is TEM on the perceived risk data, which is on a new TE#2. The last time that happened, there was a 6% move that followed.

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February 16, 2021

Volatility Reports Bonds 2/16/2021

The markets are in a time window for change. While the long-term correlation between the bonds and stocks will become positive later this year, the short-term relationship will continue on its counterbalancing framework.

With our focus here on the long bonds, it appears they have completed another leg of the new secular bear market.  In the first chart CT pegs the low hit last Friday as the end of short term wave one in the longer I-T wave (3).  Hence based on EWT, this market is just weeks away from going into a full-fledge – everyone sees the bear – sell-off.

The chart window on the left shows the Tidal Trend system short from right after the panic buying peak. Today all three trend-following indicators on that chart are trending lower. Our stand-alone “panic” index (not shown ) on the weekly chart is at 64 with 65 or higher being a bell ringer.

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February 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 2/4/21

The unraveling of the secular bull market in risk assets will come from the renewed secular bull market in the USD that began in 2011.

The redistribution of the wealth from the very top 1% to the 99%, will not blow out the budget or create monetary-based inflation, not turning the USA into a banana republic. I understand why the majority have a hard time getting their head around this when they cater to people with money. But highly unlikely not anyone in the 1%.
Furthermore, long-term Rooseveltian Economics is not Communism – no centralized ownership of assets –  and has the basis for the longest bull market from 1942 to 1966 / 69 / 72, bubble up economics.
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January 18, 2021

Volatility Reports 1/18/21 Gold

Gold, the inflation hedge, and the bearish trade. What makes that 1/oz nugget worth $1,834.30?

Contrary Thinker is short the Gold via GLL

9/10/2020 15:47

GLL $30.45 $33.54 10.15% $55 Stop $28.00

Tidal Wave S-T Inverse ETF

This advisory remains bearish on Gold. The protective stop on GLL will be moved, and a second position is expected this week. Volatility Reports is looking for a period of waterfall price action from here going into March. Here is why.

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January 14, 2021

Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21

The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.

Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.

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January 12, 2021

Volatility Reports 1/12/21

The leading indicators for the stock market are ticking off the checklist.

Back on 12/30, the Bitcoin market was labeled a Bell Weather. It should be clear to advisors, investors, and traders that BTC and others are not StableCoin, something that can be used for a more secure currency one that can not be counterfeited. But given the volatility of the market, it is a risk asset. As such, it is a bellwether for other risk markets, it is not a hedge as advertised.

The key price level

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January 6, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 1/6/21

USD In the 12/14/20 update

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