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May 27, 2024

MarketMap-2024 Bitcoin Issue#2

The Leading Risk Market

“Bitcoin has transmuted from a bellwether for all risk markets to being the BELL itself sucking all the energy out of the risk taker’s space.”  Volatility Reports 3/6/24

I have pointed out several times the only game in town is Bitcoin and I added that it will suck all of the speculative energy out of all the other risk markets. Also, the nature of the crowds that trade stocks compared to commodities like silver to soybeans are way different in their behavior.

The low pivot was put in on 5/2 and Sunday the recovery has sustained. From the 75k high the 20k correction did two things correctly. One sold off into the previous panic range, thus correcting the fear buying and has traced out a clear descending channel with three legs of decline, a clear counter trend into a TE#1, a panic wash out low on 5/1/24

The forecast is for BTC

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April 30, 2024

MarketMap-2024 Bitcoin

“Bitcoin has transmuted from a bellwether for all risk markets to being the BELL itself sucking all the energy out of the risk taker’s space.”  Volatility Reports 3/6/24

I went on to say, “The featured chart of bitcoin futures and the NYSE trust provide a picture where a S-T high may be near. The daily bar in the futures – right hand side – shows the market in greed driven panic buying from 50k.”

The chart posted at that time, click to enlarge

“The trend has landed in my intermediate resistance zone from 65,927 to 73,898. The one bar clears out day four trading days ago, shook out weak hands, since the market has been trading to move higher with limited success. It may take a new signal from the volatility model to call for a change in trend.

In the LinkedIn group I pointed out the truncated rally from the trainable, leading to a reversal. On Friday I posted “Have a look at the 2024 Scenario map for #Bitcoin in today’s copy of MaketMap-2024, issue#12. That should help put the long-term into perspective.

This chart helps with the short term that calls for a decline to the mid 50s, and that may be modest the way this speculators markets trades. I would put on a trade but not on a Friday where if wrong on Sunday I have no place to offset until 9:30 NYT Monday. Well there is the quick and the dead, and Bitcoin is lower today by 3.5% and the averages in tow.


It remains the fore runner of the mood of big speculators, it is a leading indicator for the Dow and Nasdaq. That relationship has not changed since 2016. Here is the scenario map for Bitcoin, to keep this idea in front of you, please.

Update

The annual map for Bitcoin is a very handy guild to date and the highs coming in now look like that is it for the “what to be currency of the realm.”  It is a market like an other.

The high print was seen 8 days later 3/14/24 at 73,971, just $73 above the I-T breakout zone, aka resistance and failed to hold. From the ATH the market has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, along the way taking out the low end of my I-T support zone at 65,927.

Panic buying, that is irrational behavior started as measured by my Volatility Model at 57,000 and old I-T support at 53,000 until the new month starts. With it new I-T zones, which will be lower. CT doubts if these levels will hold. Long term support, support for 2024 does not start until 15,567.00.

Here is the scenario Map for Bitcoin, which remains unchanged, new timing will be outlined in group and trade ideas on WhatsApp.
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March 8, 2024

Volatility Reports 3/6/24 Bitcoin

Bitcoin has transmuted from a bellwether for all risk markets to being the BELL itself sucking all the energy out of the risk taker’s space. In other words, I do not expect Dow & Co to follow in kind, direction and especially magnitude.

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