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    CT Journal


August 13, 2019

Gold and Deflation

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July 24, 2019

Bitcoin relative to other historic mega runs

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July 24, 2019

S-T Outlook for mini Russell

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June 24, 2019

The Good Bad Attitude, Contrary Thinking

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June 10, 2019

Stanley F. Druckenmiller “We Are In Worse Shape For A Recession Now”

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Excepts: Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. Druckenmiller on CNBC ‘s “Squawk Box” Today WHEN: Today, Friday, June 7, 2019 WHERE: CNBC’s “ Squawk Box ” The following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. […]

Stanley is someone who takes what the legends know literally, as opposed the 99% of all the social media garbage you read, esp on Facebook and Twitter.  More on that in a moment.

However, January 18, 2018, Market Map told you what  Mr. Drukenmiller is saying now, no harm no foul stocks have done nothing since that date!

And in the   January 23, 2018, in my MarketMap 2018 update, I said ” …the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price, confirmed by a sizable decline %5 plus – established by our big swing (multi-month) systems sell (taking profits) and sell short signals before the end of the month. ” Just three days from the first of three peaks in the topping process.

In the February 12, 2018 publication I said

“The scenario was for the failed new high in late August early September, but as the January COT date was early by ten days. Now it looks like the peak will come at the end of the calendar month leading to a sell-off into mid-November.”

In the Volatility Report dated September 24, 2018, posted this table with dates for the peaks; and the maximum for the Dow was 10/3/2018. I concluded that brief expecting:

I concluded that “Single day risk measured by the Dow is 2000 points and risk going into November is at least 4,000 Dow points.”  Over the three months, the Dow gave up 5,240 points into December 24, 2018.

This topping process has been a gift, with the third peak hitting as a failed new high by the Dow.

Volatility Report dated April 23, 2019,

I laid it out this way ”  Traders should be on their toes for signs of a pivotal high going into the next change of trend window ideally on May 6 +/- 2 days but the leading edge on the 29th of April. Next Tuesday. Until that time, low volatility.”

The various significant indices peaked from April 29 into May 1 for the NASDAQ  and declined 7%, into a Short term low pivoted on the first working day of June.

“From an EWT point of view, the decline from the late April early May peak may have just now finished off its first S-T leg down, allowing for a retracement of .236 to .382. ”  I said on June 2, but the rally has been a high rate of change affair that my volatility model – TEM – supported for the three months downtrend at the time. However, the rally did not match the kick off surge back at the beginning of 2019. The type of momentum surge that Marty Zweig discovered to lead to more advancing markets. But this June rally has failed to live up to  same big “internal bullish ratios.”

The Bulls have one more day to give it a go because the markets are up against it now. Regarding Stanley well: 

What you learn from the great ones is good risk management is not to take a risk. Again 90% of managers hear that has rhetoric, just words. Where in, it is the truth that any good card player will tell you, if you don’t have the cards to win, don’t bet on the “if come.” And when you are on a winning hand, you go for the juggler.  Just ask Stanley, who is now in cash or kind.

p.s. I am not a social kind of person, subscribe to the service. Here is a half price offer, I’m desperate the market is booming!


February 21, 2019

Low Volatility ETFs in the Headlines for Contrary Thinking

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February 16, 2019

Direction Neutral Risk Assessment

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February 15, 2019

“Ninety Nine Cents Won’t get you into NYC, it will take a full Dollar”

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January 20, 2019

Market Outlook: Long-Term Trend Following Models Are Turning Bearish

Volatility Report January 21, 2019

From the many analysts and capital manager reports, I read they almost all sight the well-publicized concerns but only a few are bearish. Not a good sign from a Contrary Thinker point of view. From the many I found one who at least toned down his bullish enthusiasm as seen in his summary: “Some popular long-term macro models are turning bearish on stocks for the first time since 2008-2009. Throughout 2019, other macro models will slowly turn long term bearish as well. The probability of a pullback/retest is still high. As the stock market rallies higher and approaches its 50%”

However, Volatility Report dated September 24, 2018, explained things this way, “The problem with the bulls waiting for a clear reason to sell is the vast majority point of view. Add to that fact that the majority of systems and strategies all have sell signals within the same price range when the signals hit it will be a rush to the exits.”

That is what the market witnessed from late September right into Xmas. The only thing that is slow, is the unfolding of a bull market mentality. Bear markets are fast, that is why they are preferable for aggressive trading and hedge funds. Plus systems are already engaged and when this low volatility advance has run its course and the first S-T volatility expansion hits, the bear market will be back off and running.

As a market analyst, I stick with the facts, the high probability ones opposed to wild ass speculation.  Like the following statement is 100% ungrounded, “Dow Theory signal confirms that the short-term trend is up for stocks. Several converging factors increase the likelihood of another short squeeze.”

Well, from a one world point of view, the new highs by the Dow and Nasdaq in September were not confirmed by the world index – net the USA. They have not recovered back to their highs of 2007. Regarding the Dow Theory is how the novice TA and social media bloggers do not know the rules of Dow Theory and that the December lows by both the Industrial and the Transportant indices confirmed the downtrend, with the Transports hitting prices not seen since November 2016, the beginning of the extended bull market CT expects the market to correct completely.

Regarding the speculation of a short squeeze, there is no sign of panic here, TEM has just reached a Technical Event #3, an event that tells the investor/trader the current trend is laboring, it is old, persistent and ready for a change.

Systems traders, our group, has a library of trading strategies that fit every trading style. All of our algo trading strategies have the risk and opportunity management model – Technical Event Matrix (TEM) – embedded their code. Our member investor/traders can implement a comprehensive system with no second-guessing. They have the governing model for visual control as well. Membership includes ongoing tutorials with open code; non-members locked code only with 45 days of support. Library Link Here


Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Copyright 1989-2019

Thinking Man’s Trader 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. www.ThinkingMansTrader.com, 800-618-3820

— Thinking Man’s Trader does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options.


November 27, 2018

How to Time Long Volatility Strategy

How to use the Technical Event Model

Here is an example of waiting for near 100% certainty set up. The overarching measurement for engagement of the long volatility strategy is our Technical Event Model (TEM).

One reason why a many will ignore this idea is they expect to see profits every calendar period for the system, but consistency is not the point here, at least not yet. Instead, can a trader use a filter to tell him when to trade a market strategy and when to trade it aggressively or not to trade it at all?  That is the point; we can work that into monthly and annual profit consistency later.

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