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February 16, 2019

Direction Neutral Risk Assessment

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February 15, 2019

“Ninety Nine Cents Won’t get you into NYC, it will take a full Dollar”

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November 27, 2018

How to Time Long Volatility Strategy

How to use the Technical Event Model

Here is an example of waiting for near 100% certainty set up. The overarching measurement for engagement of the long volatility strategy is our Technical Event Model (TEM).

One reason why a many will ignore this idea is they expect to see profits every calendar period for the system, but consistency is not the point here, at least not yet. Instead, can a trader use a filter to tell him when to trade a market strategy and when to trade it aggressively or not to trade it at all?  That is the point; we can work that into monthly and annual profit consistency later.

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November 19, 2018

No Christmas Party for U.S Markets

Technical Event Model – Volatility modeling

Market backdrop provides a springboard for a dynamic trend.  In the new millennium, the Read More

November 6, 2018

The S&P’s November to Remember

What follows is a blurb from the 14-page big issue Volatility Reports that is going out today covering all the various time horizons and where the market is at this eventful period.

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October 23, 2018

Market Timing is Dead

If irony evades you, you are in the majority, heads up.

Contrary Thinkers know,” the market programs the investor to do just the opposite of what he should be doing.” Contrary Thinkers also know that investors are not hard-wired to fail at achieving alpha, like so many others, would like you to believe. Its all a matter of being a Contrarian. Read More

October 17, 2018

One day wonders dominated in 2008 & 1932

Based on the evidence this is what I know

In the wake of the extended bull market since November 6, 2016, and more recently the advance from the April lows it will be hard to resist bullish actions the day after a 500 point rally by the Dow.

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May 30, 2018

Volatility Reports May 30 2018

At the risk of sounding like a critic, all the bullish and bearish analysis I read on the LinkedIn timelines, in its groups or on the more professional Twitter feeds is not predicated on the market’s context.

I mean, no matter the directional outcome of the analysis, both the bulls and the bears are running on the same track. They are all handicapped in the same environment.  The only problem is, the overlooking the backdrop or assuming it to be fundamental.

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