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January 18, 2021

Volatility Reports 1/18/21 Gold

Gold, the inflation hedge, and the bearish trade. What makes that 1/oz nugget worth $1,834.30?

Contrary Thinker is short the Gold via GLL

9/10/2020 15:47

GLL $30.45 $33.54 10.15% $55 Stop $28.00

Tidal Wave S-T Inverse ETF

This advisory remains bearish on Gold. The protective stop on GLL will be moved, and a second position is expected this week. Volatility Reports is looking for a period of waterfall price action from here going into March. Here is why.

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January 11, 2021

Volatility Reports New Bull Markets

The primary markets are pivoting in the same time frame as MarketMap’s COT time window due this week.

A short recap for the US dollar is posting up a low. The flip side of that is the Euro is reversing and about to resume its downtrend. The US long bonds are posting up a low as well.  As Volatility Reports pointed out in the December 30, 2020 Volatility Reports on the Bitcoin that:

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January 6, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 1/6/21

USD In the 12/14/20 update

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December 21, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/21/20

Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed,  so they say.
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December 14, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/14/20 Recap

The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.

USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.

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December 9, 2020

The Last Fourty Years Were an Outlier

Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.

“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”

Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
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November 30, 2020

11/30/20 Volatility Report Recap

The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes

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November 23, 2020

Volatility Reports Gold and GLL

Follow up on Gold and Bearish Trade

CT cited downside targets on the metal for the long term from 1641 to 1742 and the I-T S&R zone from 1816 to 1847 to 1816.  The opening action this far today is pressing I-T support.  Once broken the gold market should snowball. Why?

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November 18, 2020

Volatility Reports 11/18/2020 Stock Indices

Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere

When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.

The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames.  Hence

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November 14, 2020

Volatility Reports Precious Metals

Hyper correlation shows up when there are major turns in the markets.

Do not let the base here move you into buying gold. The precious metals relative to the SPY seen here may breakout but that is only saying that Gold may only be going down at a lesser rate than the stock market. This observation

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