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December 12, 2023

MarketMap-2024 Issue #1 “Nature of the Bear”

Year-end change dates

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March 1, 2022

Volatility Reports 3/1/2022

Leading Indicator

the leading risk taker’s market is just about finished here with its countertrend. The Bitcoin bulls can’t see past the end of their nose, but that is fine for those of us with vision and foresight.

I know for many some price-based analysis is just not complex enough, because it does not speculate about the whys and how comes and what the pundits contrive to be the meaningfulness of cryptos. While it’s simply a branding game at this point independent of their practicality, given the multi-millions spent on SuperBowl advertisements. So while they fight it out, one thing we know is that Bitcoin is the premier market for risk takers and traders. As such it is a leading indicator of risk taker’s mood.

That bullish mood is

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November 2, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/2/2021

It’s not the train you hear that will kill you

In my early days, the talk use to be that a good market analysis got off wall street to get away from the pressures of the industry so he/she could form an objective point of view. Well from Gainsville to Sedona many of taken that advice. If distance matters, well living half the time in the land of Oz, the down under, should put me in a superlative environment. Well yea, ok maybe.

But a nearby journo Mark Saunokonoko, a print, online journalist, and feature writer published by the Australian 9News Network “Ten scenarios that could rock the world in 2022.” Where Mark did a good job isolating none market events, outside world events, that could have a dramatic impact on the 13-year-old “Great Bull Market”  Here is his list, my thoughts, and a few others you may have to put your ear to the ground to know something is coming.

He has grouped the ten possible threats this way: ” five are categorized as economic scenarios, two political and military, and one environmental…” He includes his sense of likelihood and scale of change.

1. Worsening US-China ties force full decoupling in global economy
Probability: High
Impact: Very high

2. Unexpectedly fast monetary tightening leads to US stock market crash
Probability: Very high
Impact: High

3. Property crash in China leads to sharp economic slowdown

Probability: High
Impact: Very high


4. Tighter domestic and global financial conditions derail recovery in emerging markets
Probability: High
Impact: High


5. New COVID-19 variants emerge that prove resistant to vaccines
Probability: Moderate
Impact: Very high

6. Widespread social unrest weighs on the global recovery
Probability: Very high
Impact: Low

7. Conflict erupts between China and Taiwan, forcing US to intervene
Probability: Low
Impact: Very high

8. EU-China ties worsen significantly
Probability: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

9. Severe droughts prompt a famine
Probability: Low
Impact: Moderate

10. Inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economies
Probability: Moderate
Impact: Low

A good list that every investor /trader to have in the back of their mind.  But there are more pressing and pragmatic events that need to be at the forefront. A primary one is major events do not happen at the peak of the market, full stop. The pandemic that was used as the excuse for the “shortest bear market in history” was public information in December 2020, more than three months before the pivot. See Contrary Thinker’s post “The One Factor that Trumps the New Market’s Giddiness” from 1/22/2020. But there is one that rises to the top.

Four out of the ten revolve around China. Actually, one could put a cyber attack in the same group be it China or Russia do the misdeed making it 50% of the outside events that may impact the markets. But the tough talk and trade war was started by Trump and in that regard “the Donald” is history. There will be better diplomacy in the next three years. What is more important is that armed conflicts as in wars on a major scale happen during bad economic periods and at the end of a major stock market decline with WW2 being the prime example.  Today the economies are busting out of Covid19 restrictions and the stock market is at historical highs in the USA.

True, China and the emerging markets have begun respective bear markets. Our market model signaled bear market investments including China and Brazil. Here is a partial list of our bear market ETFs positions, dating back in June.

Regarding the pandemic coming back in full force, the issue is the opposite. The breakthroughs in vaccine technologies mRNA among others will put a stop to most if not all virulent contagions. Creating a problem of where do we put all these people, especially the elderly living well into their mid 150s.  Plus the added strain on energy resources.

For the central banks or fiscal policy derailing the economy, it would take an overreaction by the agencies or the administrations, something the professionals expect from entry-level types; To date, the Feds have done a good balancing act. But they will be a good place to point fingers once the market begins to decline and pick up media attention, no problems there. But the cause?

That leaves two, drought/famine and social unrest. Regarding the former, doubtful. The agricultural segment is fairly resistant regarding weather extremes to the extent that the weather event would have to be worldwide. So purchase cherries from the USA and buy your pork from Australia, etc; and yes that would be inflationary and like other commodity-based inflations, it has nothing to do with interest rates or money supply. The latter is neo-liberal thinking, not Rooseveltian. If it was monetary-based inflation gold and silver would be bullish, and they are not.

The issue that I will put in the most striking terms possible. The USA has domestic civil strife to deal with and that is in the face of good economic and market times. So number six above “Widespread social unrest weighs on the global recovery” is the bell ringer.  It is poping up worldwide.

Either youth will be served and modernity will continue to progress else history will fall back on itself with the old and I do mean old lizard brain-based GOP moving to an Autocratic system.

My headlines on January 23, 2018, are captured right here.

Also, if you were an evil genius looking to take over the United States – yes I know – just play along. How would you do it? For one, you may have the catalyst if Biden does not make it to the end of his term and the US has its first women president. I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.

Some technical analysis 

As markets do not top at the same time, and many segments rotate out of favor leading the decline before the decline becomes a market risk, that is broad swiping.  The gallery of charts below demonstrates our bearishness. The 52 weeks high low diffusion index has provided excellent “off risk” signals since 2015.  In today’s issue, November 3, 2021, more timing and technical analysis will follow.



What to expect according to MarketMap™ 2022 Scenario Planner


Get MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner and two months of “Volatility Support and real time updates on your phone through LinkedIn for only $74.95 for two months and 249/Qtr. to follow, no contract required. Offer good until NYSE close Friday December 15, 2023


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